NIU crushes Bowling Green 51-17. A contender for the G5 spot if Boise falters.

(12-05-2014 10:33 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  NIU crushes Bowling Green 51-17. A contender for the G5 spot if Boise falters.

NIU could be ahead of Marshall the way the committee looks at things.

Congrats NIU!

(12-05-2014 11:38 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  NIU could be ahead of Marshall the way the committee looks at things.

I expect they are ... their P5 win may not be against a top P5 team, but in a beauty contest, 1-1 against P5 competition looks better than "Did Not Contest in Category"

I think Memphis may be shorter odds than NIU, but NIU would be in the conversation if Boise trips up right before the finish line.

(12-05-2014 11:38 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  NIU could be ahead of Marshall the way the committee looks at things.

That would not surprise me at all...

(12-06-2014 07:13 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(12-05-2014 11:38 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  NIU could be ahead of Marshall the way the committee looks at things.

That would not surprise me at all...

I do think it should put NIU in the slot behind Boise. Marshal needs to blowout La Tech to have any hope. I think the NIU blowout was a death blow nail for the AAC.

I thought last night's scores were interesting. I thought both winners were keeping their foot on the gas to impress the voters. I expect more of the same today.

(12-06-2014 12:39 PM)ken d Wrote:  I thought last night's scores were interesting. I thought both winners were keeping their foot on the gas to impress the voters. I expect more of the same today.

Sadly, the committee has basically given the signal this needs done with that Game Control comment. They appear to be unofficially using Margin of Victory.

Marshall threw their hat into the ring if Boise falls. But they didn't do it very convincingly. Most importantly, they kind of limped down the stretch with their 3 least impressive games.

Committee is probably really hoping Boise wins. Very tough to pick among NIU, Marshall, Memphis, UCF and Cincinnati. I think Memphis wins it, but it would be very close.

(12-06-2014 07:13 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(12-05-2014 11:38 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  NIU could be ahead of Marshall the way the committee looks at things.

That would not surprise me at all...

After Marshall struggling again in the title game I would say yes.

NIU lost to CMU and Marshall lost to WKU which offset. NIU beat Northwestern handily and lost to Arkansas. Marshall pounded 3 MAC schools in the non-conference so they have a credibility issue.

(12-06-2014 03:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  Marshall threw their hat into the ring if Boise falls. But they didn't do it very convincingly. Most importantly, they kind of limped down the stretch with their 3 least impressive games.

Committee is probably really hoping Boise wins. Very tough to pick among NIU, Marshall, Memphis, UCF and Cincinnati. I think Memphis wins it, but it would be very close.

If we get rid of our preconceived notions and stereotypes that only P5 teams can be tough opponents, it shouldn't be. E.g., you guys probably think ECU is better than Louisiana Tech, but just about every objective indicator says LA-Tech is at least as good, so there's no more shame in Marshall struggling versus LA-Tech as there is in Cincy struggling with Houston and UCF needing a miracle to get by ECU.

UCF and Cincy are out because Memphis has the best AAC resume (only team to beat one of the other co-champs).

Among Memphis, NIU, and Marshall, it's pretty clear: They all have played putrid schedules, so record has to settle it. And Marshall has the best record.

Louisiana Tech lost to a bottom of the barrel F CS team


I think there's a chance that even if Boise loses they're the best G5 team

(12-06-2014 06:48 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Louisiana Tech lost to a bottom of the barrel F CS team


I think there's a chance that even if Boise loses they're the best G5 team

Even if they were, they wouldn't qualify.. You need to be a conference champion.

(12-06-2014 06:56 PM)Enaiu Wrote:  

(12-06-2014 06:48 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Louisiana Tech lost to a bottom of the barrel F CS team


I think there's a chance that even if Boise loses they're the best G5 team

Even if they were, they wouldn't qualify.. You need to be a conference champion.

True. Then it would be NIU OR Marshall since the AAC doesn't have a true champion

(12-06-2014 05:04 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2014 03:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  Marshall threw their hat into the ring if Boise falls. But they didn't do it very convincingly. Most importantly, they kind of limped down the stretch with their 3 least impressive games.

Committee is probably really hoping Boise wins. Very tough to pick among NIU, Marshall, Memphis, UCF and Cincinnati. I think Memphis wins it, but it would be very close.

If we get rid of our preconceived notions and stereotypes that only P5 teams can be tough opponents, it shouldn't be. E.g., you guys probably think ECU is better than Louisiana Tech, but just about every objective indicator says LA-Tech is at least as good, so there's no more shame in Marshall struggling versus LA-Tech as there is in Cincy struggling with Houston and UCF needing a miracle to get by ECU.

UCF and Cincy are out because Memphis has the best AAC resume (only team to beat one of the other co-champs).

Among Memphis, NIU, and Marshall, it's pretty clear: They all have played putrid schedules, so record has to settle it. And Marshall has the best record.

But Memphis has the best losses.

(12-06-2014 08:25 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-06-2014 05:04 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2014 03:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  Marshall threw their hat into the ring if Boise falls. But they didn't do it very convincingly. Most importantly, they kind of limped down the stretch with their 3 least impressive games.

Committee is probably really hoping Boise wins. Very tough to pick among NIU, Marshall, Memphis, UCF and Cincinnati. I think Memphis wins it, but it would be very close.

If we get rid of our preconceived notions and stereotypes that only P5 teams can be tough opponents, it shouldn't be. E.g., you guys probably think ECU is better than Louisiana Tech, but just about every objective indicator says LA-Tech is at least as good, so there's no more shame in Marshall struggling versus LA-Tech as there is in Cincy struggling with Houston and UCF needing a miracle to get by ECU.

UCF and Cincy are out because Memphis has the best AAC resume (only team to beat one of the other co-champs).

Among Memphis, NIU, and Marshall, it's pretty clear: They all have played putrid schedules, so record has to settle it. And Marshall has the best record.

But Memphis has the best losses.

But also has less wins. NIU lost to CMU, and Memphis lost to Houston. Both teams 7-5. Memphis has an extra loss, and in my opinion that ranks them below NIU.

(12-06-2014 05:04 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Among Memphis, NIU, and Marshall, it's pretty clear: They all have played putrid schedules, so record has to settle it. And Marshall has the best record.

That's a shell game ... you are free to label all three schedules as putrid, but doing that does not transform them into equally bad schedules. Three OOC games against the MAC EAST and URI is a different quality of schedule to OOC games against Arkansas, Northwestern, UNLV and Presbyterian.

Its not just "2P5, 1 Go5, 1FCS" versus "3Go5, 1FCS", its that its 3Go5 from the much weaker division of the MAC, none of the three with winning records, only OhioU bowl eligible at 6-6, and they will in all likelihood be staying home.

The committee has been saying they are looking to the quality of wins, and not only will they count a win against 5-7 Northwestern from the Big Ten West as a higher quality OOC win than beating 6-6 OhioU from the MAC East ... they properly ought to do so.

(12-06-2014 08:25 PM)bullet Wrote:  But Memphis has the best losses.

That's part of what puts them first among AAC co-champions, all of whom have two OOC losses on their resume. Their case is that they played two P5 schools OOC which are both better than the P5 school that beat NIU. And Memphis' conference schedule was tougher than either NIU or Marshall, so going through their conference with only one conference loss says more in their favor. But OTOH, NIU does have more wins.

I think that in a beauty contest, Memphis edges out NIU, but its a close enough argument that its conceivable that it goes the other way.

(12-06-2014 08:55 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(12-06-2014 05:04 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Among Memphis, NIU, and Marshall, it's pretty clear: They all have played putrid schedules, so record has to settle it. And Marshall has the best record.

That's a shell game ... you are free to label all three schedules as putrid, but doing that does not transform them into equally bad schedules. Three OOC games against the MAC EAST and URI is a different quality of schedule to OOC games against Arkansas, Northwestern, UNLV and Presbyterian.

Its not just "2P5, 1 Go5, 1FCS" versus "3Go5, 1FCS", its that its 3Go5 from the much weaker division of the MAC, none of the three with winning records, only OhioU bowl eligible at 6-6, and they will in all likelihood be staying home.

The committee has been saying they are looking to the quality of wins, and not only will they count a win against 5-7 Northwestern from the Big Ten West as a higher quality OOC win than beating 6-6 OhioU from the MAC East ... they properly ought to do so.

(12-06-2014 08:25 PM)bullet Wrote:  But Memphis has the best losses.

That's part of what puts them first among AAC co-champions, all of whom have two OOC losses on their resume. Their case is that they played two P5 schools OOC which are both better than the P5 school that beat NIU. And Memphis' conference schedule was tougher than either NIU or Marshall, so going through their conference with only one conference loss says more in their favor. But OTOH, NIU does have more wins.

I think that in a beauty contest, Memphis edges out NIU, but its a close enough argument that its conceivable that it goes the other way.

I just go by the objective SOS indicators like Sagarin, and those say Memphis and Marshall have played just about the same quality of schedule.

That's much more rational and convincing then subjective ranting about P5 and the like.

And Marshall has two less losses.

(12-07-2014 12:46 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  And Marshall has two less losses.

NIU is 11-2