(11-20-2014 07:23 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote: (11-20-2014 06:49 PM)adcorbett Wrote: Todge, to your first point, comparing the SWC a would be power conference to the above makes no sense. The suggestion is the assumption since no power conference can be attained, going regional might help rebuild rivalries and cut costs. I'm not sure the idea is foolproof, and the makeup needs work, but for many of the teams involved it would be little different monetarily. It's not a premis without merit, even if don't personally agree with it. It's not A nutty idea.
The dynamics of what works in a power conference vs a non-power conference don't necessariky mesh. What works for one may not work for the other. Case in point a national conference works far better for a power conference than one that isnt.
1. most power conferences are not national conferences they are far from it
2. cutting cost is loser talk
3. rivalries are meaningless when one team sucks every year much less when both suck and when no one nationally cares
example was the MAC game last night with Toledo VS Bowling Green.....for the "glass trophy" or something like that.......no one nationally really cared unless like me they just like to watch college football and it was a decent game because it was close and there was some divisional standing on the line......but still ask 1 MILLION college football fans and 12 will be able to tell you there was a rivalry trophy on the line last night and that is because those were the other 12 watching the game besides me and MAC regional fans
4. for small schools/G5 schools to build a fan base they will have to do it themselves and stop looking for other schools (small schools, G5 schools with fan support issues and G5 schools that suck and draw no fans)
look at Boise they did not play home games against top teams when they were building their program and they often still do not at best they get neutral site games, but their fans show up to THEIR GAMES to SUPPORT THEM
juxtapose this with former fellow Big West member north Texas state in a metro area of 6 million that constantly has their 18,500 fair weather fans clamoring to get in a conference "with other Texas teams"
so after a decade of sucking in The Sunbelt the get in CUSA with the priced 3 other Texas teams and barely average over 20K fans on their bestest season in the history of evAR! when they went 9-4 at a school that has 36,000 STUDENTS in a metro area of 6 million people......playing 3 other Texas teams!!!
Rice has their own attendance issues, UTSA brought some fans to see north Texas State get beat down by UTSA, UTEP brought a few, but past year UTEP sucked
this year they had SMU in the OOC, but SMU fans don't care about north Texas state and appearance north Texas state fans only marginally care more about SMU and SMU fans were mad at the state of the program overall
then UTEP, UTSA and Rice are on the road and then they are dropping a deuce this year so next year (and already this year) they will struggle to attract their 20,000 fans
Meanwhile Boise State with 22K students in a metro area of 215,000 and a STATE with 1.6 million people TOTAL is averaging 35K fans and wondering what is going wrong (even though they decided to stay in the most regional conference possible)
you have to get your own 40-50K fans and you have to do that on your own with wins and games against P5 teams either at home or that you win on the road or a neutral site and not with games against regional teams that suck or that are struggling because they have no fan support and they offer nothing different to the casual fan that the causal fan can't find with several other regional conference mates
when you are not a P5 school, do not have their fan support and their alumni base you have no business thinking like them or trying to reinvent the square wheel they failed with for tight regional conferences.......and still P5 conferences are not "national".......if you want to take a leap forward and catch up you do what they talk about doing and that is go more national and less regional
Most power conferences are national in AUDIENCE. Go look at the TV ratings. People will watch in California if an SEC game impacts the national picture and people in Michigan will watch if an ACC game is nationally relevant.
Cutting costs is "loser talk"? There is this area of the economy called "Wall Street" and when a CEO or CFO gets on a conference call with analysts an announces they have found a way to cut overhead 1% without harming revenue the price of their stock immediately goes up. That's not loser talk. The problem with regionalization is recruiting. I'll deal with that shortly.
Toledo vs. BGSU sucked in gate revenue because it was played on a cold weeknight vs. Saturday afternoon, that's a price of trying to play the same game as the P5, chasing NATIONAL rather than regional TV.
The reason Joe fan didn't care about Toledo-BGSU had nothing to do with it being a regional match-up. Replace BGSU with UNLV the audience is no better. The problem is relevance. Toledo played three non-conference FBS. They lost by 25 to Mizzou, 24 to Cincinnati, 7 to Iowa State. BGSU's non-conference FBS beat Indiana by 5, lost to WKU by 28, lost to Wisconsin by 51.
Weeknight games when NIU was doing well drew in excess of a million viewers multiple times because they were relevant, only BYU, Boise and a smattering of AAC games the past few years outdrew the hyper-regional MAC games with NIU.
Boise built a local ticket buying base by beating regional teams. They built a national TV audience for those regional games by being nationally relevant.
The drawback to a regional conference is recruiting.
How many of La.Tech, UL Lafayette, ULM, Tulane can you put in a league before the perceived equality of being in the same conference cannibalizes recruiting sending all to mediocrity?
This is why AState is the perfect swing team if AAC or CUSA or something new emerges in the south. No one else in Sun Belt, AAC, CUSA spends much time in Arkansas. There is talent but is dispersed over a pretty large footprint. A coach can spend two days in Dallas and see more kids than one coach can see in a week in Arkansas. AState is the only G5 that can afford to take the time going to every school and it works, with far more Arkansas players than any other state on roster by a wide margin. Good enough to produce 34 wins in four years.
Texas has a massive amount of talent but how many of Houston, SMU, UTSA, UNT, Rice, UTEP, TXST can be in the same league without over-dispersing the talent?
Recruiting is the real danger of regionalization. Look no further than the MAC where the Ohio schools struggle to sustain success with six of them in the state and two pairs (Toledo-BGSU and Kent-Akron) within 30 minutes of each other.
AState has one G5 stadium within 300 miles of its stadium. Toledo has 10 and has two closer than Memphis is to AState.
I think it is no accident that NIU, remote from most of the MAC has been the most sustained program of late.
Recruiting is THE NUMBER ONE DANGER of regionalization.
If you want to play the P5 game of chasing national television dollars the key isn't markets, the market game is BS rooted in a remote era of ratings depending on people keeping a paper diary and mailing it. The lack of data meant you didn't really know if games were being watched by any significant number of people you had to extrapolate and did that by making guesses based on market size.
Today anyone using a cable box can have their viewing habits dissected as can anyone using a satellite receiver connected to the internet or a phone line. If ESPN says X people watch Rice football Direct TV execs can use a few keystrokes to determine if it is true of their viewers.
Why do satellite and cable companies get into hardball negotiations with AMC and others? They already know how many customers regularly watch and have good estimates of what losing a channel means to their subscriber base.
The key to playing the national game in TV is to develop nationally relevant teams and if you put too many in one recruiting base they dilute the talent and the teams are unable to win at a pace to become relevant.
If AAC wants to add a team, New Mexico State or UAB is more valuable than Rice or USM because the latter two are going to compete head-to-head for too many players AAC teams already recruit.