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Wow! I don't know what to say. After arguably the worst week in UAB Athletics history, here we are, with two games to play--and we aren't eliminated! This is the first time this has happened since 2009.

So, for the next few weeks, you'll be seeing this column appear on Sundays. I was going to mark this thread with a football icon, but it looks like Dr Watts took it away.

Here's how our format is going to work:

First, we'll take a look at C*USA's bowl lineup, odds and teams that are at 6 wins or on the bubble. Next, we'll fan out and look at the other conferences. Spoiler alert: Much to your chagrin, the SEC will have the largest impact on whether C*USA will place all of its eligible teams, as well as where they wind up. The AACkkkk will also have some effect.

Lastly, we'll show the total number of bowls and bowl-eligible teams, with key bubble matchups for this upcoming Saturday. Sound like fun? Well it will be. Since the FN Bubble Watch® has been on vacation for 3 straight seasons (get it together!).

So without further ado, let's look at the C*USA lineup:

Already in: Marshall, La Tech, Rice
Need one more: UAB, UTEP, MT
Thin ice: WKU, North Texas,
Eliminated: F_U, UTSA, Southern Miss, Old Dominion* (only eligible if no other teams are)

So, your first question might be: How many C*USA slots are there? Well, it's complicated. We have five concrete tie-ins. Should Marshall go undefeated, they will get to the Access bowl and open a slot for someone. Lastly, the Independence Bowl has the right to select an AAC or C*USA team if the ACC or SEC cannot provide a team (more on that later).

So, there is still a mathematical chance for 8 C*USA bowl-eligible teams. However, North Texas must win @UTEP, vs FIU and vs UTSA, and WKU must get 2/3 from Army, UTSA, and @Marshall.

FN Projection: C*USA gets 7 teams eligible, and everyone gets a bid!

So, let's take a conference-by-conference approach this week to see where everyone shakes out. We will work off of the assumption that if the season ended today, the four-team playoff would include:

1) Miss St
2) Florida St
3) Alabama
4) Oregon

Conference projection--Starting with P5:

ACC

Already in: Florida State, Clemson, Louisville, Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Notre Dame* (gets to take an ACC slot if they aren't chosen as an at-large)
Need one more: NC State
Thin ice: North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Number of slots: 10 (including playoff berth for FSU)
Projected number of teams: 11

Big XII

Already in: Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma
Need one more: Texas, Oklahoma State
Thin ice: Texas Tech, Kansas

Number of slots: 8 (conditional slot there in Military Bowl if Army doesn't win out - Also I believe TCU and Baylor make the CFP Bowls)
Number of teams: 6 - I don't think the Texas/Ok St loser makes it.

Big Ten
Already in: Ohio State, Michigan, Maryland, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa
Need one more: Michigan, Penn State, Rutgers
Thin ice: Indiana, Northwestern, Illinois

Number of slots: 10 (extra B1G team makes the CFP bowls)
Number of teams: 10

PAC-12
Already in: Oregon, Arizona St, UCLA, USC, Arizona, Utah, Washington
Need one more: Stanford, Cal
Thin ice: Oregon St

Number of slots: 8 (two teams make the CFP bowls)
Number of teams: 9

SEC

Already in: Missouri, Georgia, Miss St, Alabama, Ole Miss, Auburn, Texas A&M, LSU
Need one more: Florida, Kentucky
Thin ice: South Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas

Number of slots: 11 (at this point, we are projecting two teams in the CFP, and one as an at-large for CFP bowl)
Number of teams: 10 (Note: If this happens, Birmingham Bowl is OPEN)

Total Net openings for G5: 1

And now, for the P5 brethren:

AAC

Already in: Memphis, ECU
Need one more: Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, Temple
Thin ice: USF, Tulane

Number of slots: 6
Number of teams: 6

MAC

Already in: Bowling Green, Toledo, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Central Michigan:
Need one more: Ohio
Thin ice: Akron, Buffalo, Ball State

Number of slots: 5
Number of teams: 7

MWC

Already in: Nevada, Colorado St, Boise St, Utah St, Air Force
Need one more: San Diego St
Thin ice: Fresno St, San Jose St, Wyoming, New Mexico

Number of slots: 7
Number of teams: 6

Sun Belt

Already in: Georgia Southern, ULL, Arkansas St
Need one more: Texas St, South Alabama
Thin ice: App St, La-Monroe

Number of slots: 3
Number of teams: 5


Independents: Both BYU and Navy make their bids, adding two to the total.

So, our FN projection right now is 77 bowl-eligible teams, leaving one at home. The moral of the story is: if we win one more, that team left out won't be us.

We will return later in the week to showcase this weekend's games to watch.

Thanks. That is FN great.

Woot!

Glad to have it back!

It's hard to believe FIU has lost four straight conference games.

We should have won against FIU and MTSU. Then we wouldn't be having this conversation.

(11-09-2014 07:18 PM)BandGrad Wrote:  We should have won against FIU and MTSU. Then we wouldn't be having this conversation.

Treat the football like the world's going to end tomorrow and the keys to the kingdom of Heaven are inside it and we win both of them.

We might have won yesterday.

(11-09-2014 06:53 PM)KevMo4UAB Wrote:  It's hard to believe FIU has lost four straight conference games.

They would not have beaten us if we didn't give them six turnovers.

Dammit.

bump.