These teams control their own destinies in the race for the 2014 C-USA Football Championship:

Louisiana Tech
Marshall
Rice


These teams need help:

Middle Tennessee
UAB
UTEP


These teams are beyond help:

FAU
FIU
North Texas
Old Dominion
Southern Miss
UTSA
Western Kentucky

I think UTEP is out. The most conference losses La Tech can finish with is 2 (same number UTEP currently has) and they hold the head to head tiebreaker against UTEP

(11-09-2014 11:44 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  I think UTEP is out. The most conference losses La Tech can finish with is 2 (same number UTEP currently has) and they hold the head to head tiebreaker against UTEP

A 6-2 three way tie between Rice, Tech and UTEP is possible, but involves Rice beating Marshall.

Even in the scenario where La Tech loses out, Rice beats Marshall and then loses to UTEP, and there is the three way tie at 6-2, this tie can't be broken until step #6 below. In this scenario, Rice would be 1-0 against Marshall and UTEP & La Tech would be 0-0, so Rice would advance.

Conclusion, even in the only scenario UTEP can be in a three-way tie, UTEP still can't win the tiebreaker, so they are "eliminated" from possibly playing and winning in the conference championship game.


Two-team or multiple team tie for divisional champion
1. Highest regular season winning percentage based on overall Conference USA play.
2. If tied, head to head between tied teams.
3. If still tied, highest winning percentage within division.
4. If still tied, compare records against divisional opponents in descending order of finish.
5. If still tied, compare records with common cross-divisional opponents.
6. If still tied, compare records against cross-divisional opponents in descending order of finish.
7. If still tied, team with highest BCS ranking.
8. If still tied, the representative will be the team that has not participated in the championship game most recently.
9. If at any point the tie is broken in a multiple team tie, the remaining teams will begin the process again at #2.

(11-09-2014 01:56 PM)CoachMaclid Wrote:  Even in the scenario where La Tech loses out, Rice beats Marshall and then loses to UTEP, and there is the three way tie at 6-2, this tie can't be broken until step #6 below. In this scenario, Rice would be 1-0 against Marshall and UTEP & La Tech would be 0-0, so Rice would advance.

Conclusion, even in the only scenario UTEP can be in a three-way tie, UTEP still can't win the tiebreaker, so they are "eliminated" from possibly playing and winning in the conference championship game.


Two-team or multiple team tie for divisional champion
1. Highest regular season winning percentage based on overall Conference USA play.
2. If tied, head to head between tied teams.
3. If still tied, highest winning percentage within division.
4. If still tied, compare records against divisional opponents in descending order of finish.
5. If still tied, compare records with common cross-divisional opponents.
6. If still tied, compare records against cross-divisional opponents in descending order of finish.
7. If still tied, team with highest BCS ranking.
8. If still tied, the representative will be the team that has not participated in the championship game most recently.
9. If at any point the tie is broken in a multiple team tie, the remaining teams will begin the process again at #2.

That last post makes my head hurt.

After actually watching a full Marshall game, Marshall is the real deal. Yea, they haven't really been tested but they are damn good. Can't wait to see them against Rice. Tech maybe even or a little better than Rice so it will be a good gauge of how good Marshall really is. Rice plays D and there O is option based so it's tough to defend. So far the east teams outside of MU have not impressed me becuase they don't play good D.

If things keep moving on in the current direction they're headed, it's gonna be a hell of a game against Rice to decide who wins the west division.

(11-09-2014 02:46 PM)RonBurgundy Wrote:  If things keep moving on in the current direction they're headed, it's gonna be a hell of a game against Rice to decide who wins the west division.

If we don't beat Marshall, the Rice-Louisiana Tech game is completely meaningless thanks to our WTF Saturday against Old Dominion.

(11-09-2014 04:14 PM)ESE84 Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:46 PM)RonBurgundy Wrote:  If things keep moving on in the current direction they're headed, it's gonna be a hell of a game against Rice to decide who wins the west division.

If we don't beat Marshall, the Rice-Louisiana Tech game is completely meaningless thanks to our WTF Saturday against Old Dominion.

Yep. That game really hurt you a lot.

(11-09-2014 04:16 PM)goherd24herdfans Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 04:14 PM)ESE84 Wrote:  If we don't beat Marshall, the Rice-Louisiana Tech game is completely meaningless thanks to our WTF Saturday against Old Dominion.

Yep. That game really hurt you a lot.

I'm conflicted this week and probably won't do much posting. No question that Marshall helps C-USA by snaring that first Access Bowl. Rice is almost certainly going to Dallas, to face a very beatable B1G opponent, as long as we take care of business in two weeks and beat UTEP.

There is still the possibility that La Tech could also have a wtf moment at ODU also. I doubt it happens, but I wouldn't have bet on them beating Rice either.

I'm hopeful we got all the WTF out of us during the Northwestern st. Game.

(11-09-2014 06:16 PM)Kingkong13 Wrote:  I'm hopeful we got all the WTF out of us during the Northwestern st. Game.

Holy crap, find some wood and break it with a fist full of 4 leaf clovers while holding a rabbit by all 4 feet in the other hand.

(11-09-2014 02:08 PM)Cscollis Wrote:  After actually watching a full Marshall game, Marshall is the real deal. Yea, they haven't really been tested but they are damn good. Can't wait to see them against Rice. Tech maybe even or a little better than Rice so it will be a good gauge of how good Marshall really is. Rice plays D and there O is option based so it's tough to defend. So far the east teams outside of MU have not impressed me becuase they don't play good D.

I believe the east is leaps and bounds better than the west division this season.

(11-09-2014 01:56 PM)CoachMaclid Wrote:  Even in the scenario where La Tech loses out, Rice beats Marshall and then loses to UTEP, and there is the three way tie at 6-2, this tie can't be broken until step #6 below. In this scenario, Rice would be 1-0 against Marshall and UTEP & La Tech would be 0-0, so Rice would advance.

Conclusion, even in the only scenario UTEP can be in a three-way tie, UTEP still can't win the tiebreaker, so they are "eliminated" from possibly playing and winning in the conference championship game.


Two-team or multiple team tie for divisional champion
1. Highest regular season winning percentage based on overall Conference USA play.
2. If tied, head to head between tied teams.
3. If still tied, highest winning percentage within division.
4. If still tied, compare records against divisional opponents in descending order of finish.
5. If still tied, compare records with common cross-divisional opponents.
6. If still tied, compare records against cross-divisional opponents in descending order of finish.
7. If still tied, team with highest BCS ranking.
8. If still tied, the representative will be the team that has not participated in the championship game most recently.
9. If at any point the tie is broken in a multiple team tie, the remaining teams will begin the process again at #2.

Nice try, but UTEP is still in it.
Your analysis assumed that Marshall wins the east despite a loss to Rice. But (unlikely, I know, but stick with me)... If Marshall goes into a tailspin of despair and then drops two more (finishing 5-3) then MTSU could still win the east at 6-2.
Even with that hypothetical loss to... Yep, UTEP.

Which would then give the Miners the 3-way tiebreaker in this scenario.

So I'm saying they're not eliminated ... :)

(11-09-2014 06:39 PM)goherd24herdfans Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:08 PM)Cscollis Wrote:  After actually watching a full Marshall game, Marshall is the real deal. Yea, they haven't really been tested but they are damn good. Can't wait to see them against Rice. Tech maybe even or a little better than Rice so it will be a good gauge of how good Marshall really is. Rice plays D and there O is option based so it's tough to defend. So far the east teams outside of MU have not impressed me becuase they don't play good D.

I believe the east is leaps and bounds better than the west division this season.

Why?

Let's recap that one for UTEP fans:
Week 12:
Rice beats Marshall
MTSU over FIU
UTEP def UNT
Week 13:
UTEP wins at Rice
ODU knocks off LaTech
Marshall goes down to Birmingham
Week 14:
WKU upends Marshall
Rice takes LaTech

(repost with game 9 of 9)

Let's recap that one for UTEP fans:
Week 12:
Rice beats Marshall
MTSU over FIU
UTEP def UNT
Week 13:
UTEP wins at Rice
ODU knocks off LaTech
Marshall goes down to Birmingham
Week 14:
WKU upends Marshall
Rice takes LaTech
UTEP goes on the road to best MTSU

(sorry guys, one more time - it's 10 games total)

Let's recap that one for UTEP fans:
Week 12:
Rice beats Marshall
MTSU over FIU
UTEP def UNT
Week 13:
UTEP wins at Rice
ODU knocks off LaTech
Marshall goes down to Birmingham
MTSU over FlatLantic
Week 14:
WKU upends Marshall
Rice takes LaTech
UTEP goes on the road to best MTSU

Owl at the moon,

You are correct! I completely disregarded the fact that Marshall could lose all three games, thus making MTSU the top team for UTEP to win the break.

So I retract my statement as this thread has figured out a way for UTEP to advance.