Quote:The MAC really needs to beat the G5 when we play them so we have ground to stand on.

I agree -- but that's a whole other subject, though.

CUSA has the best G5 vs G5 record than any other G5 conference. LIGHT YEARS better than the AAC and MW. Does that make CUSA the best G5? HECK. NO. :) It's who ya play. You can have set-ups skewed to give skewed results (bottom of MW vs top of MAC West, etc).

Point being, it's the individual team's SoS, how they measured up in wins & losses to said teams, their record, etc.

So it boils down to this:
Would any poll/committee/voters rank a 11-2 NIU *below* an 8-5 San Diego State and a 8-4 Houston? No, they would not. Have Marshall botch their CUSA game -- putting forth a 9-4 LA-Tech, and you have roughly the same comparison. NIU would go.

(11-08-2014 01:30 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:You have to wonder, maybe the committee would not let Marshall go under any circumstance.

Now, that's ridiculous. :) Unless WMU's old coach is on the committee (when WMU & Marshall were rivals), I don't see them having a bias against Marshall to prevent them No Matter What. :)

Take my hypothetical-stretch of teams above. Nobody beat a P5 team, except NIU beating NW. Replace the LA-Tech upset and put Marshall in there at 13-0. Marshall would go above NIU. Marshall's SoS is worse, but the MOV is consistent and clear -- they'd go over NIU, hands down. If NIU didn't lose to CMU and was 12-1? Then very possibly NIU.

All the committee is positioning themselves as, is: You need WINS over tough opponents or very competitive games ("good losses") against very tough opponents to get 'up there'. But that's not the only thing, nor the overall "thing" either, of course. The wind just blows a bit heavier in that direction than some other polls, that's it.

I am torn on this because coming from a perspective of a fan of a G5 mid major team, I think teams like Marshall are often overlooked. However, that schedule, it is a big big piano on your back. It is not hyperbole to call that FCS quality schedule, never seen anything like it before.

(11-08-2014 01:35 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:The MAC really needs to beat the G5 when we play them so we have ground to stand on.

I agree -- but that's a whole other subject, though.

CUSA has the best G5 vs G5 record than any other G5 conference. LIGHT YEARS better than the AAC and MW. Does that make CUSA the best G5? HECK. NO. :) It's who ya play. You can have set-ups skewed to give skewed results (bottom of MW vs top of MAC West, etc).

Point being, it's the individual team's SoS, how they measured up in wins & losses to said teams, their record, etc.

So it boils down to this:
Would any poll/committee/voters rank a 11-2 NIU *below* an 8-5 San Diego State and a 8-4 Houston? No, they would not. Have Marshall botch their CUSA game -- putting forth a 9-4 LA-Tech, and you have roughly the same comparison. NIU would go.

I agree with your scenario, though OOC is still a measuring stick used to value conference games.

Is a 10-0 record in the MAC if (hypothetically) the MAC has a sub .100 record in OOC better than a 8-2 record in the CUSA when they had a .750 record in OOC? Now you can argue it is all relative and you need to look at the body of work within those wins, but conference equity still plays a role if each conference win is a higher quality win than the other conference comparatively.

Quote:I agree with your scenario, though OOC is still a measuring stick used to value conference games.

Yeah, it's an under-layer of SoS. Each poll will have them vary. But a lot of that is dependent on each team. Take us. If on one of our schedules in the MAC West, we play @Kent, Buffalo, and Miami-OH at home -- that's weak. If NIU plays @BGSU, @Akron, and Ohio -- that's tougher. But in the end, how tough are those teams individually? That's what measures the conference, too. Not a thin-layered quickie of "G5 vs G5" record of all conference teams. Otherwise, CUSA would be HANDS DOWN the most dominant G5 conference -- and Marshall would be sitting Real Pretty right now. That's not the case, as it shouldn't be. Why? Such things can be deceiving, as certain teams can be set up (G5 vs G5) which it gives a false impression.

If EMU plays 3 SEC teams and gets blown out 44-3 each game -- but BGSU doesn't play EMU, that has no effect on their SoS, if EMU's also getting pasted by MAC teams as well.

It's a down year for mid-majors as a whole, MAC is obviously No Exception. But how good our conference seems to be/reputation? That's going to be more guy-sitting-in-his-living-room assessment. To the committee which analyzes stuff (heck they hired Condi) more than a coaches' poll or press poll -- I think they look at ALL mid-majors as "ehh", and rightfully so to an extent this year.

What you're referring to is when it's a real close comparison (11-2 NIU vs 9-3 AAC/MW team who had a loss to a sub-.500 team & didn't beat or have a close game against a P5).

(11-08-2014 12:55 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(11-08-2014 08:10 AM)yesman815 Wrote:  We played Presbyterian (who is that)

Actually pretty good game on SEC network right now 2nd qtr Ole Miss 14 Presby 0. Presby very competitive with the #11 Rebels

LOL. "Very competitive". It's 35-0 early in the 3rd quarter.

(11-08-2014 02:00 PM)UIHuskie Wrote:  

(11-08-2014 12:55 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(11-08-2014 08:10 AM)yesman815 Wrote:  We played Presbyterian (who is that)

Actually pretty good game on SEC network right now 2nd qtr Ole Miss 14 Presby 0. Presby very competitive with the #11 Rebels

LOL. "Very competitive". It's 35-0 early in the 3rd quarter.

(11-08-2014 02:00 PM)UIHuskie Wrote:  

(11-08-2014 12:55 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(11-08-2014 08:10 AM)yesman815 Wrote:  We played Presbyterian (who is that)

Actually pretty good game on SEC network right now 2nd qtr Ole Miss 14 Presby 0. Presby very competitive with the #11 Rebels

LOL. "Very competitive". It's 35-0 early in the 3rd quarter.

42-0 and Presby has 100 yards of offense. Ole Miss has scored 6 TDs in 13 minutes.

Check that, 42-0 less than halfway through the 3rd.

Nailed it, MD.

(11-08-2014 02:05 PM)armour248 Wrote:  

(11-08-2014 02:00 PM)UIHuskie Wrote:  

(11-08-2014 12:55 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(11-08-2014 08:10 AM)yesman815 Wrote:  We played Presbyterian (who is that)

Actually pretty good game on SEC network right now 2nd qtr Ole Miss 14 Presby 0. Presby very competitive with the #11 Rebels

LOL. "Very competitive". It's 35-0 early in the 3rd quarter.

42-0 and Presby has 100 yards of offense. Ole Miss has scored 6 TDs in 13 minutes.

With MD02 playing the part of the Black Knight:

King Arthur: [after Arthur's cut off both of the Black Knight's arms] Look, you stupid bastard, you've got no arms left!

Black Knight: Yes I have.

King Arthur: Look!

Black Knight: It's just a flesh wound.

The answer is no unless the MW falls apart and the committee hates marshall.

NIU got their ass beat by Arkansas and a subpar CMU and hasn't looked great in general.
Toledo lost to a horrible Iowa state team and hasn't been kicking butt.
WMU lost to Purdue and VT. They could kick ass and still wouldn't get in. Both those teams suck.
BGSU has 3 losses and that's too many.

Quote:The answer is no unless the MW falls apart and the committee hates marshall.

That's my point. Marshall would have to lose CUSA Championship (makes them Ineligible). And the MW Champ would be an upset -- San Diego State at 8-5 to Solidly say that a 11-2 NIU or a 10-3 WMU/BGSU would be chosen better.

Remember, it's only Conf Champs -- not the "best in the G5".

Ok im done questioning Marshall, even with that abysmal schedule, they have that spurtability factor on offense and have dominated just about every opponent. They deserve the Peach. If Marshall is not in this weeks top 25, that is beyond a joke

Only if the MAC champ is NIU and we win out convincingly. Way to much would be needed for a 3 loss MAC team.

Right now the committee would rake the top 6 something like this.

Co St, Marshall, ECU, Boise St, NIU & AF

We need all these teams, other than us, to not win the conference championship. For Marshall, Boise St or AF losing one more regular season game would be good enough to knock them below us.


Doesn't matter if we don't win out convincingly (14+ points)

I's not guarenteed to be the Peach Bowl for the Access Spot, it could also be the Fiesta or Cotton.

Also, Todd did you really say WMU has a good SOS?

They played Idaho, VT, Murray state, and Purdue in out of conference.

Yes, VT beat Ohio state, but has been abysmal since then. Purdue is one of the laughing stocks of FBS (improved, but still bad). Idaho is Idaho and I'm gonna look at what Murray state did.

They then played a bunch of MAC teams like everyone else.

I don't think NIUs SOS is good but I'd argue arkansas is as good as any team any MAC team has played. Record isn't great, but they've played better football than about 90 FBS teams.

HYPOTHETICAL G5 WINNERS COMPARISON (to mess with your head; quite possible but don't expect it obviously):
DW = Dominant Win, W = Win, CW = Close Win
DL = Dominant Loss, L = Loss, CL = Close Loss

*AAC* MEMPHIS (9-3):
DW - Austin Peay (D1AA; 1-11)
L - @UCLA (9-3)
DW - Middle Tennessee (7-5)
DL - @Ole Miss (10-2)
DW - @Cinci (8-4)
CL - Houston (7-5)
DW - @SMU (1-11)
W - Tulsa (2-10)
CW - @Temple (6-6)
W - Tulane (3-9)
DW - S Florida (4-8)
DW - Connecticut (3-9)

*MW* NEVADA (9-4):
DW - South Utah (D1AA; 2-10)
W - Washington State (4-8)
CL - @Arizona (9-3)
W - @San Jose State (4-8)
L - Boise State (10-3)
L - Colorado State (11-1)
W - @BYU (7-5)
W - @Hawaii (3-9)
W - San Diego State (6-6)
CL - @Air Force (9-3)
W - Fresno State (5-7)
DW - @UNLV (2-10)
CW - Boise State (10-3)

*MAC* Northern Illinois (11-2):
DW - Presbyterian (D1AA; 6-5)
W - @Northwestern (5-7)
W - @UNLV (2-10)
DL - @Arkansas (5-7)
CW - @Kent State (2-10)
DL - CMU (8-4)
W - Miami-OH (3-9)
W - @EMU (2-10)
W - @Ball State (5-7)
W - Toledo (7-5)
CW - @Ohio (6-6)
CW - @WMU (7-5)
W - BGSU (9-4)

*CUSA* Louisiana Tech (9-4):
DL - @Oklahoma (9-3)
DW - @Louis-Lafayette (8-4)
DW - @North Texas (4-8)
CL - Northwestern St (D1AA; 6-6)
DL - @Auburn (10-2)
DW - UTEP (6-6)
W - UTSA (3-9)
W - @South Miss (3-9)
DW - W. Kentucky (6-6)
DW - @UAB (6-6)
W - @Old Dominion (5-7)
CL - Rice (8-4)
CW - Marshall (12-1)

Quote:Also, Todd did you really say WMU has a good SOS?

Yeah, but in comparison to the other MAC teams who are theoretically capable of winning the MAC for Access Bowl consideration.

Quote:They played Idaho, VT, Murray state, and Purdue in out of conference. Yes, VT beat Ohio state, but has been abysmal since then.

VT was better earlier on, and we played them then. Just like ECU was really great early on, and now they're hobbling. There'll be a few teams that start out not good, but then do well, and vice versa.

Purdue's not a laughing stock -- they played ND close as well as MSU close, and will play teams relatively tough -- they only have 3 wins like NW and Indiana -- they're thought of as a lock to beat for any B1G winning team, but they still have to knock on wood. With their new QB after their first 2 games, they have an O. But at the same token, WMU played THEM when they were worse. :)

NIU's OOC was roughly the same as WMU's (NW/Purdue + Arkansas/VaTech + UNLV/Idaho) -- all 3 teams in the same "class" generally speaking. I shouldn't say NIU's is "poor" and WMU's is "good" though.

In my hasty writing, I was mainly referring to WMU had to play @BGSU in their Mac East which "bumps" it up. Places rank NIU's SoS worse than WMU's by a bit, but I should correct myself -- it's Not a difference of "poor" vs "good" at all for overall schedule. The only thing I see worth a real difference is the @BGSU game having to play, where NIU instead plays Kent. That IS key for conference SoS to predict who's going to win the West, but overall schedule? Not, it's not to make one's whole schedule shift in categories, no.

I'm still curious how/why Marshall didn't schedule ONE P5 opponent among their 4 OOC games. Odd.

To their credit, their SoS may be in the dumpster, but their margins of victory have been wide in almost every game they've played. They just picked the wrong year to not have any 'big boys' in their schedule.

Quote:I'm still curious how/why Marshall didn't schedule ONE P5 opponent among their 4 OOC games. Odd.

They did. Louisville. Louisville bailed last minute to post-pone due to hangups with the ACC scheduling when joining I guess, so Marsh scheduled Rhode Island instead.

Quote:To their credit, their SoS may be in the dumpster, but their margins of victory have been wide in almost every game they've played. They just picked the wrong year to not have any 'big boys' in their schedule.

Actually, oddly enough, I think they are Lucky tho. :) It's not a pinnacle year for mid-majors. 4 out of 5 times, IMO, you'll be trumped by a #15-#18 mid-major, especially with the Big East becoming G5.

With Marshall's the highest you could probably get is #21 or something by a committee with emphasis on SoS (while you have no 'big name' established like Boise or something).

So as long as there's no big G5 stepping forward, you can run the table. Of course, winning ALL games including your Conf Champ game -- that's no easy task for *any* G5 team, even with a pretty sub-par SoS.

SB Nation has Boise in instead of Marshall. Saying their garbage schedule will stop them from getting in. Not sure I agree with that.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football...redictions