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South Alabama (5-3) at Arkansas State (5-3) Nov. 8, 3:00, ESPN3
Here's The Deal: Both teams are still alive in the Sun Belt title hunt, but barely. South Alabama has a good defense and held Louisiana-Lafayette’s red hot offense in check, but still lost 19-9. There’s still time to come up with a strong finish and become bowl eligible, but it has to happen this week or next week against Texas State, or it’ll take an upset over South Carolina or Navy to get it done. With a great running game to go along with the solid defense, this is a good team that has to come up with something special to win on the road – there have been way too many struggles against mediocre teams, even if they’re wins.
Arkansas State also lost to Louisiana-Lafayette, but that’s the one big gaffe winning four of the last five games. With a great ground game and one of the league’s better pass defenses, ASU is like South Alabama in a lot of ways, but it’s better. Coming off a three game road stretch, the Red Wolves get three of the next four games at home.
What’s Going To Happen: The Arkansas State running game will be just a wee bit better and the offense a little more explosive. South Alabama is good, but its starting quarterback Brandon Bridge is banged up. ASU is better with more pop and more offensive balance.
Prediction: Arkansas State 34 … South Alabama 20
Line: Arkansas State -3.5 o/u: 48
Must Watch Factor: 5: Sonic Highways – 1: Anything involving Nik Wallenda … 2
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Georgia State (1-8) at Troy (1-8) Nov. 8, 3:00, ESPN3
Here's The Deal: Not only is this a battle for – possibly – the Sun Belt basement, but the loser might be the nation’s worst team. Troy is on a three-game losing streak coming off double-digit blastings from Appalachian State, South Alabama and Georgia Southern with an offense that can’t seem to find anything that consistently works, and a run defense that’s among the worst in least effective in college football.
Georgia State was getting close, and it appeared to be improving, but the losses keep on mounting. There was a 30-27 close call loss to South Alabama, but the other three games over the last month were ugly, getting blown away by Arkansas State, Georgia Southern and in the snow against Appalachian State by a combined score of 124 to 37. Unlike Troy, GSU has a passing game, but the defense is getting marched on way too easily.
What’s Going To Happen: Can Georgia State get its passing game going? The Troy defense has been an absolute disaster, but it’ll finally be able to run the ball a little bit. The beaten up Panthers will finally get their first FBS win of the season QB Nick Arbuckle and the passing attack getting it done.
Prediction: Georgia State 27 … Troy 23
Line: Troy -7 o/u: 66
Must Watch Factor: 5: Sonic Highways – 1: Anything involving Nik Wallenda … 1.5
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Idaho (1-7) at San Diego State (4-4) Nov. 8, 6:30
Here's The Deal: It’s been a weird season for San Diego State, and now, after a loss to Nevada, it’s going to be a fight just to get bowl eligible. The Aztecs are still in the hunt for the West title if they can win out and get a little help – like a Nevada loss or two – but they have to still go to Boise State next week and have to face key games against Air Force and San Jose State with three of the last four at home. Can the offense that’s so, so bad – ranking 121st in the nation in efficiency – do enough to get by, or will it be all around the running game? It might not matter against a horrendous Idaho defense.
The Vandals haven’t stopped anyone’s running game, allowing 256 yards per game, and they’re not coming up with enough big plays to overcome the other problems. However, the offense has been dangerous at times with a good passing game and some pop and explosion. Can the passing attack beat the SDSU ground game? At the very least, it has to be able to keep things moving to keep up the pace.
What’s Going To Happen: San Diego State will run for well over 300 yards, keeping the Idaho offense on the sidelines and controlling the game throughout. Idaho has been excellent in time of possession, but the Aztecs will slow things down a bit this week.
Prediction: San Diego State 30 … Idaho 17
Line: San Diego State -21 o/u: 57
Must Watch Factor: 5: Sonic Highways – 1: Anything involving Nik Wallenda … 2
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ULM (3-5) at Appalachian State (3-5) Nov. 8, 3:30, ESPN3
Here's The Deal: Red hot, Appalachian State plowed through the snow to blow away Georgia State 44-0 after hanging a 53-14 win over Troy. The offense has scored 145 points in the last three games with 441 rushing yards and five scores against Troy and 469 yards and six touchdowns against Georgia State. Can the production continue? With nasty games coming on the road against Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette over the next two weeks, beating ULM at home is a must or it could be a rough run before the season-ending layup against Idaho.
Texas A&M might be struggling, but ULM really does have a good defense. The pass D is allowing under 200 yards per game and made it interesting in a 21-16 loss to the Aggies last week, but the offense is a different story scoring 18 points or fewer over the last four games and scoring more than 22 just once all season long.
What’s Going To Happen: The ASU offense is operating at such a high level that It might be tough for the Warhawks to shut down the ground game cold, but there won’t be the explosion like there was over the last few games. The ASU defense is good enough to keep the horrendous ULM rushing game from doing much of anything.
Prediction: Appalachian State 24 … ULM 17
Line: Appalachian State -4 o/u: 54
Must Watch Factor: 5: Sonic Highways – 1: Anything involving Nik Wallenda … 1.5
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Georgia Southern (7-2) at Texas State (5-3) Nov. 8, 6:30, ESPN3
Here's The Deal: Can Texas State stop the Georgia Southern train? The Bobcats have a terrific running attack as part of a balanced offense that’s averaging 239 yards on the ground and 206 through the air on the way to a nice run of four wins in the last five games. The problem? The run defense has been average, and that’s going to be a problem against a Panther running game that’s bordering on unstoppable.
The Eagles lead the nation in rushing averaging over 400 yards per game with 46 touchdowns, hitting the 400-yard mark in four of the last five games and running for four touchdowns or more in six of the last seven games. Winners of the last six games, this is the Sun Belt’s strongest team and should be a lock to win the title, even if it can’t go to a bowl game. Next week is the real fun with running game on running game action against Navy, but first, the Eagles have to deal with the TXST ground attack.
What’s Going To Happen: As good as Texas State might be, Georgia Southern is operating at a whole other level. The Eagles will hit their customary 400 yards, and while the Bobcats will keep things moving, too, they won’t be able to keep up the pace.
Prediction: Georgia Southern 40 … Texas State 31 Line: Georgia Southern -14 o/u: 61.5
Must Watch Factor: 5: Sonic Highways – 1: Anything involving Nik Wallenda … 2
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Louisiana-Lafayette (5-3) at New Mexico State (2-7) Nov. 8, 8:00, ESPN3
Here's The Deal: Uh oh. Louisiana-Lafayette is on a roll with the running game rumbling and rolling on the way to a four-game winning streak to be front-and-center in the Sun Belt title chase. With Georgia Southern not eligible to go bowling, and the two teams not playing, the Ragin’ Cajuns have a shot to keep on rolling on the way to the Sun Belt’s top spot if they can get through a run of road games in three of the next four weeks. Fortunately, it all starts with a miserable New Mexico State team that hasn’t been able to do much of anything since starting out the year 2-0.
The Aggies have a nice offense, and the defense hasn’t been that bad – at least against teams that don’t run the ball – but ULL runs it really, really well, and it’s probably going to do whatever it wants to unless the Aggies can start controlling the ball and the clock a little more. That starts with holding down defensively on third downs, and that means the run defense has to come up with its best performance of the year.
What’s Going To Happen: ULL will run wild with two backs going well over 100 yards. New Mexico State will have the ball for around 25 minutes and won’t be able to do enough with it – the defense will seem like it never gets off the field.
Prediction: Louisiana-Lafayette 44 … New Mexico State 20
Line: Louisiana-Lafayette -16 o/u: 65.5
Must Watch Factor: 5: Sonic Highways – 1: Anything involving Nik Wallenda … 1.5
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