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When will this thread run its course?

(11-05-2014 12:55 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  ...and we had a legitimate chance of winning the WKU game...and our defense didn't get any stops against WKU. Offense plays well, we don't get killed on TOP and we have a chance to win. Also, while the defense was brutalised by WKU, it wasn't far off from WKU's averages. So offense was better, we competed in time of possession, our defense was not as bad comparatively, and we had a chance to win.

Marshall and Vandy - Offense sucked, time of possession was terrible, defense couldn't get off the field, we really had no chance of winning. Sounds like there is a correlation between offensive performance and defensive performance to me.

Not sure I agree with the last part.

Our top 3 offensive performances (in order):

Rice
Western Kentucky
NC State

Our worst 3 defensive performances (in order):

Western Kentucky
Rice
NC State

Vs. Marshall, the offense and defense were both bad. Vs. EM the offense was bad and the defense was good (conditions). Vs. MT and Vandy the offense was above average and the defense was bad. Vs UTEP the offense was pretty good and the defense was bad.

(11-05-2014 01:10 PM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  

(11-05-2014 12:58 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(11-05-2014 11:31 AM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  

(11-05-2014 11:07 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  The 3rd down conversion numbers are for games that do not include FCS teams.

We actually won time of possession vs. Western Kentucky.

Our defense getting stops increases our time of possession.

Then that makes it worse for us. Without the FCS Hampton @ 72% then, we probably drop below 31%, putting is in the bottom 10 group of schools in the nation.

I am not surprised at all. The WKU offense is just a better version of ours. They likely never win TOP. They also have no ball control fallback. Interestingly, their defense has the identical problem ours does, and is ranked 3 places lower than we are in Points Against nationally. Exactly what I would expect.

Here is what ESPN has 3rd down conversions at:http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/sort/thirdDownConvPct

44% (40th in the NCAA) We've also converted 11 4th down attempts, which would bring the number to 54% of the time we get to 3rd down, we convert a first down; whether it be on 3rd down or 4th down.

I can't explain the dichotomy between sources. When you first posted your figures there was so much difference that I did the math manually, so again I suggest that you do the arithmetic yourself. Manual calculations showed us at 39.8 percent with HSU. Without HSU's 72% it is worse.
I also don't understand your source listing only 124 FBS programs, as there are 128.

Using the WKU game as an example is misleading in that it is almost a mirror image of us with the same TOP woes and the same defensive woes. WKU actually supports, not refutes my premise.

I just ran through game by game, 49-112 44% and 11-22 on 4th down 50%.

In fact, taking out the rain game vs. EM and our conversion rate would 47-97, 48%. 10-19 on 4th down. The only games that were bad in terms of 3rd down rate were EMU, Marshall, and Vandy.

(11-05-2014 01:22 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(11-05-2014 01:10 PM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  

(11-05-2014 12:58 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(11-05-2014 11:31 AM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  

(11-05-2014 11:07 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  The 3rd down conversion numbers are for games that do not include FCS teams.

We actually won time of possession vs. Western Kentucky.

Our defense getting stops increases our time of possession.

Then that makes it worse for us. Without the FCS Hampton @ 72% then, we probably drop below 31%, putting is in the bottom 10 group of schools in the nation.

I am not surprised at all. The WKU offense is just a better version of ours. They likely never win TOP. They also have no ball control fallback. Interestingly, their defense has the identical problem ours does, and is ranked 3 places lower than we are in Points Against nationally. Exactly what I would expect.

Here is what ESPN has 3rd down conversions at:http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/sort/thirdDownConvPct

44% (40th in the NCAA) We've also converted 11 4th down attempts, which would bring the number to 54% of the time we get to 3rd down, we convert a first down; whether it be on 3rd down or 4th down.

I can't explain the dichotomy between sources. When you first posted your figures there was so much difference that I did the math manually, so again I suggest that you do the arithmetic yourself. Manual calculations showed us at 39.8 percent with HSU. Without HSU's 72% it is worse.
I also don't understand your source listing only 124 FBS programs, as there are 128.

Using the WKU game as an example is misleading in that it is almost a mirror image of us with the same TOP woes and the same defensive woes. WKU actually supports, not refutes my premise.

I just ran through game by game, 49-112 44% and 11-22 on 4th down 50%.

In fact, taking out the rain game vs. EM and our conversion rate would 47-97, 48%. 10-19 on 4th down. The only games that were bad in terms of 3rd down rate were EMU, Marshall, and Vandy.

Using your source, ESPN, and looking at the stats for each game, I still don't get your figures (except that chart). Using ESPN, and excluding Hampton, which you told me to do, I get a total of 104 attempts and 43 conversions, for 41.3% which puts us down at 60 or 61.

Anyway, I will repeat that this is a secondary predictor to time of possession. Our longest drive vs Vanderbilt was 11 plays and STILL consumed less than 3 minutes. That is the issue.

(11-05-2014 01:13 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(11-05-2014 12:55 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  ...and we had a legitimate chance of winning the WKU game...and our defense didn't get any stops against WKU. Offense plays well, we don't get killed on TOP and we have a chance to win. Also, while the defense was brutalised by WKU, it wasn't far off from WKU's averages. So offense was better, we competed in time of possession, our defense was not as bad comparatively, and we had a chance to win.

Marshall and Vandy - Offense sucked, time of possession was terrible, defense couldn't get off the field, we really had no chance of winning. Sounds like there is a correlation between offensive performance and defensive performance to me.

Not sure I agree with the last part.

Our top 3 offensive performances (in order):

Rice
Western Kentucky
NC State

Our worst 3 defensive performances (in order):

Western Kentucky
Rice
NC State

Vs. Marshall, the offense and defense were both bad. Vs. EM the offense was bad and the defense was good (conditions). Vs. MT and Vandy the offense was above average and the defense was bad. Vs UTEP the offense was pretty good and the defense was bad.

I'll suggest that Vanderbilt was our worst defensive performance. At least three above have decent offenses,

You may be right in actuality. Statistically though, we got 2 turnover, including a defensive TD (earned or not).

In terms of strictly percentage of yards given up higher than the opposing offense averages, its as follows:

29% Western Kentucky (they average 6.5 ypp, got 8.5)
26% Vandy
25% NC State