Wasn't really sure where to put this, so just created a new thread.

Richmond's coach said this morning on the CAA coaches call that it now looks like Strauss will be out for the season. Said something about the injury being worse than initially thought. Their best WR, Stephen Barnette also tore his ACL against Rhode Island and it looks like he's out for the season too. Very tough for both of these guys as they're fantastic athletes, and best wishes to both of them for a speedy recovery. This certainly changes the nature of our game against them, as well as the games they have until that end of season clash.

Hate to see a Sr. go out that way, and sorry for the players that have worked hard all these years. We have been hit hard by injuries this year, so if UR has to make it work like we have, so be it.

(10-20-2014 04:37 PM)TribeNomad Wrote:  Hate to see a Sr. go out that way, and sorry for the players that have worked hard all these years. We have been hit hard by injuries this year, so if UR has to make it work like we have, so be it.

plus 1

On the coaches call this morning Richmond's Coach Rocco this morning said Michael Strauss is day-to-day for this week, but sounded like he's definitely back for the game against us. QB Rocco has been average at best, but you have to assume Strauss won't have the same mobility if he is back in his game against us.

Looks like we need Richmond to lose to JMU so having Strauss out might help that. Also, we need some of the 13 teams still alive in the MVFC and Big Sky to pick up their 5th loss. Finally, would really help if Liberty lost to Charleston Southern and Coastal the next 2 weeks. Not sure why people have them solidly ahead of us but they do.

People don't notice the D2 win of Liberty. That will hurt them with the committee.

Just read on AGS that Strauss is back this week for Richmond.

Creates an interesting question of who does WM want to win this one. Let's assume Albany and Delaware don't win out; not impossible, but definitely a stretch for both of them. Obviously we need to win out, and I think it's safe to say JMU beats Elon. So we will be at 8-4. If JMU beats Richmond then JMU finishes 9-3, we finish 8-4, and Richmond finishes 7-5. However if Richmond beats JMU, then it would be three-way tie with each team being 1-1 against the other two. At that point I don't think the committee cares about what technical tiebreaker is next, they're looking bigger picture. I feel comfortable that 4 CAA teams get in, but 5 is a stretch (depends on how much carnage there is in the MVFC). So essentially the question is which scenario is better:

1-Sole possession of the 4th CAA spot, but a Richmond that lost three straight to close the season
2-Three way tie at 8-4, but against a Richmond team that beat JMU

I feel like the committee will give credit to the CAA this year, even though it was tough for some teams in early OOC games, so I think sole possession of 4th at 8-4 helps us out, even though a win over Richmond wouldn't mean as much. My leaning to this is not much though, since neither scenario seems to be significantly better.

Would love to hear other thoughts.

(11-12-2014 02:10 PM)hktribefan Wrote:  Creates an interesting question of who does WM want to win this one. Let's assume Albany and Delaware don't win out; not impossible, but definitely a stretch for both of them. Obviously we need to win out, and I think it's safe to say JMU beats Elon. So we will be at 8-4. If JMU beats Richmond then JMU finishes 9-3, we finish 8-4, and Richmond finishes 7-5. However if Richmond beats JMU, then it would be three-way tie with each team being 1-1 against the other two. At that point I don't think the committee cares about what technical tiebreaker is next, they're looking bigger picture. I feel comfortable that 4 CAA teams get in, but 5 is a stretch (depends on how much carnage there is in the MVFC). So essentially the question is which scenario is better:

1-Sole possession of the 4th CAA spot, but a Richmond that lost three straight to close the season
2-Three way tie at 8-4, but against a Richmond team that beat JMU

I feel like the committee will give credit to the CAA this year, even though it was tough for some teams in early OOC games, so I think sole possession of 4th at 8-4 helps us out, even though a win over Richmond wouldn't mean as much. My leaning to this is not much though, since neither scenario seems to be significantly better.

Would love to hear other thoughts.

I posted this in the other thread. I think people are WAY WAY WAY over complicating this.

We need UR to lose to JMU and us beat them. They are then out of the playoffs. Then we hope they feel the CAA was strong enough to bring us in. Whether we beat a UR team that beat JMU or that lost to JMU, the committee isn't going to feel any significant difference.

At that point we'd be 8-4 with three CAA losses, all to playoff teams. We'd be a tough case. We don't want to be in a three way tie with a JMU team that beat us and a Richmond team that beat Villanova.

I know it's been talked about a lot on a lot of threads, but with Strauss potentially coming back it makes the Richmond-JMU game more interesting. Was interested in hearing which of the two scenarios people think is better.

(11-12-2014 03:28 PM)hktribefan Wrote:  I know it's been talked about a lot on a lot of threads, but with Strauss potentially coming back it makes the Richmond-JMU game more interesting. Was interested in hearing which of the two scenarios people think is better.

Yeah, I understand.. wasn't complaining about covering it again... I'm happy to be talking about playoff possibilities at this point in the year.

IMO it's a clear answer of "we want JMU to win against UR". I just think that's the best scenario for us for a host of reasons.

(11-12-2014 04:20 PM)wml33t Wrote:  

(11-12-2014 03:28 PM)hktribefan Wrote:  I know it's been talked about a lot on a lot of threads, but with Strauss potentially coming back it makes the Richmond-JMU game more interesting. Was interested in hearing which of the two scenarios people think is better.

Yeah, I understand.. wasn't complaining about covering it again... I'm happy to be talking about playoff possibilities at this point in the year.

IMO it's a clear answer of "we want JMU to win against UR". I just think that's the best scenario for us for a host of reasons.

There are about 38-39 teams competing for the 24 spots. Given that there are only 13 at large bids, it seems very unlikely the CAA will get more than 4 teams in, if that. If Richmond beats JMU and JMU beats Elon, the best we can hope for is a tie for 3rd in the conference with those two. If you were to add Delaware, it would actually be worse. Delaware would get in having just beaten NH and Villanova. Assuming we are only talking about JMU/UR/ and the Tribe, we likely lose out in a 3 way tie. Each would have won at home and have the same overall record. Richmond would likely go due to its win over Villanova. My expectation is that neither W&M or JMU would make it in that scenario, but if they took one of us only, it would probably be JMU. We need for solidly in teams to get the AQ, such as Jacksonville State instead of E. Illinois and EWU instead of Northern Arizona. Coastal instead of Liberty. EIU, NAU, and possibly even Liberty won't get in without the AQ, but if they get in with the AQ, an at large bid goes away. Tons of postings about it through purple glasses on the JMU board. I don't think any 7-5 teams are getting in,so we need to win out and hope some of the teams in front of us lose that 5th game. A good potential bracket for us would be Tribe in solo 4th behind NH, Nova and JMU. MVFC with 4 bids or less and the same for the Big Sky. If that happens, and we finish 8-4, we should get in somewhere.

Too many possibilities right now. If we beat Towson Saturday, we can then explore who is on the bubble with us for the last week. Some teams will be out of the running after Saturday, I just hope whatever faint hopes we have are still alive. We need to play MUCH better than we have in our last 5 quarters or it will not matter.