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DragonLair Offline
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Post: #1
Pearl Harbor
I was watching the Pearl Harbor movie from the 2000's. Terrible movie but that's besides the point.

Would the war in the pacific been drastically different if the Japanese admiral had launched the third wave or aircraft to target the dry docks.

Yes he no longer had the element of surprise the the base had pretty much be decimated and resistance still would have been relatively light.

Your thoughts?


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10-03-2014 10:32 PM
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49RFootballNow Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Pearl Harbor
(10-03-2014 10:32 PM)DragonLair Wrote:  I was watching the Pearl Harbor movie from the 2000's. Terrible movie but that's besides the point.

Would the war in the pacific been drastically different if the Japanese admiral had launched the third wave or aircraft to target the dry docks.

Yes he no longer had the element of surprise the the base had pretty much be decimated and resistance still would have been relatively light.

Your thoughts?


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The oil farm was also a target for the third wave. That would have been more significant if lost. Like today, anything but pineapples had to be shipped in from the mainland. Without the oil there Hawai'i would have been at the end of the supply line and not a realistic base for forward operations. With no ready fuel; Enterprise, Lexington, Saratoga, Hornet and Yorktown would have had to operate from San Diego till the oil supply in the islands could be repaired and replaced. It would have delayed our war effort at least a year and there's no way Roosevelt would have got the American public to accept a "Germany first" strategy under those conditions.
(This post was last modified: 10-03-2014 11:44 PM by 49RFootballNow.)
10-03-2014 10:39 PM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Pearl Harbor
I don't think it would have changed a whole lot. The key was the aircraft carriers. Failing to get those is what cost them the war. The dockyard facilities would have take 6-8 months to repair and so the war probably would have gone on into 46'.

But, even at that you could make a solid argument that if the Japanese had changed some of their combat policies, particularly fire fighting and combat pilot rotations, they could have fought us into a stalemate. They had plenty of equipment but nobody competent to fly.
10-04-2014 02:24 PM
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bitcruncher Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Pearl Harbor
What might have changed things a mite is if the US high command had paid heed to the warnings and prevented the attack.
10-04-2014 02:30 PM
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RobUCF Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Pearl Harbor
It may have extended the war, but it wouldn't have changed the result. I find this to be an interesting article summarizing what the Japanese were really facing:

http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm
10-06-2014 09:25 AM
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Lord Stanley Online
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Post: #6
RE: Pearl Harbor
Nothing, and really I mean nothing, would have changed the inevitable - that the USA was an economic powerhouse, with manpower to spare, and all the natural and raw materials needed, to crush the Empire of Japan in prolonged battle. Any additional Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor would have made little difference it the end. A few months, at maximum.

Recently I read a fascinating short article about how the inch thick, steel oil tanks at Pearl Harbor were impervious to most Japanese bullets, which is probably a bit contrary to anyone's initial thoughts / Hollywood movie version of the reactions between bullets and oil and gas tanks. Strafing runs against the oil tanks were almost fruitless, to the surprise of well, everyone. The inch thick plating easily withstood the ammunition the Japanese had in their planes which was better suited for air to air combat than puncturing armor. They mostly had smaller caliber bullets, with little cannon caliber. If the Japanese wanted to destroy the tanks they would have to have targeted them directly with bombs, and almost all the bombs were allocated for ocean going vessels.
10-06-2014 10:23 AM
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john01992 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Pearl Harbor
All but 3 battleships at pearl harbor were returned to service. of those three only one ship (Utah) which was an old ship used only for target practice went unscrapped. The other two still had their guns taken and put on other ships. Even if the aircraft carriers were at PH that day, we would have had them back in service regardless. The oil really was the only unreplacable thing at PH that day and it was left untouched. The drydocks being taken out was even more critical which were also planned for the third wave.
10-06-2014 10:43 AM
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Phillip26r Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Pearl Harbor
(10-06-2014 09:25 AM)RobUCF Wrote:  It may have extended the war, but it wouldn't have changed the result. I find this to be an interesting article summarizing what the Japanese were really facing:

http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm

Excellent read. thanks.
10-06-2014 11:05 AM
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Smaug Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Pearl Harbor
I just wish Ben Affleck would have stayed dead.
10-06-2014 09:06 PM
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49RFootballNow Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Pearl Harbor
(10-06-2014 09:06 PM)Smaug Wrote:  I just wish Ben Affleck would have stayed dead.

Best part of that steaming pile of fecal matter of a so-called movie. I walked out when they showed he was still alive.
10-06-2014 09:45 PM
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VA49er Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Pearl Harbor
(10-06-2014 09:45 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  
(10-06-2014 09:06 PM)Smaug Wrote:  I just wish Ben Affleck would have stayed dead.

Best part of that steaming pile of fecal matter of a so-called movie. I walked out when they showed he was still alive.

Well, Kate Beckinsale was in it, so there's that.
10-07-2014 11:26 AM
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vandiver49 Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Pearl Harbor
(10-06-2014 09:25 AM)RobUCF Wrote:  It may have extended the war, but it wouldn't have changed the result. I find this to be an interesting article summarizing what the Japanese were really facing:

http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm

This is my go to article for anything related to the War in the Pacific.
10-10-2014 02:48 PM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Pearl Harbor
That is an interesting article but it doesn't tell the whole story. Japan's Naval air service did not lack for planes, in fact most Japanese military forces never really lacked for equipment, but they completely lacked trained aircrews, experienced pilots, etc. Throughout the war the Japanese also stockpiled massive amounts of hardware on the home islands and did not ship it throughout the pacific, even though as late as Nov of 44' they maintained a nearly intact transit system throughout the empire.
10-11-2014 11:01 AM
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49RFootballNow Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Pearl Harbor
(10-11-2014 11:01 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  That is an interesting article but it doesn't tell the whole story. Japan's Naval air service did not lack for planes, in fact most Japanese military forces never really lacked for equipment, but they completely lacked trained aircrews, experienced pilots, etc. Throughout the war the Japanese also stockpiled massive amounts of hardware on the home islands and did not ship it throughout the pacific, even though as late as Nov of 44' they maintained a nearly intact transit system throughout the empire.

The Germans and the Japanese would let their best pilots fly till they were killed. This is why Germany has fighter aces with hundreds of kills, but its a terrible waste of a good pilot. There comes a point where you are wasting their talents IN the cockpit. The US would yank experienced crews to pass that experience on to other crews. Had the Japanese Naval Air Arm and especially the Luftwaffe done this the war would have been much harder. Neither lacked airplanes even late in the war.
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2014 05:33 PM by 49RFootballNow.)
10-11-2014 05:32 PM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Pearl Harbor
I think the importance of the size of the material advantage is overplayed a bit by many historians.
10-11-2014 06:21 PM
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runamuck Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Pearl Harbor
(10-11-2014 06:21 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I think the importance of the size of the material advantage is overplayed a bit by many historians.

basically the war was decided in favor of the allies once the u.s. was in. we had vast amounts of available men and resources and an ocean on each end for protection. it was just a matter of gearing up and formulating the best strategy. from what I have read, pretty soon after we entered the war the deal making began for who gets what afterward. it was only a matter of time before the japanese ran out of resources and the germans ran out of manpower.
12-11-2014 09:10 AM
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49RFootballNow Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Pearl Harbor
(12-11-2014 09:10 AM)runamuck Wrote:  
(10-11-2014 06:21 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I think the importance of the size of the material advantage is overplayed a bit by many historians.

basically the war was decided in favor of the allies once the u.s. was in. we had vast amounts of available men and resources and an ocean on each end for protection. it was just a matter of gearing up and formulating the best strategy. from what I have read, pretty soon after we entered the war the deal making began for who gets what afterward. it was only a matter of time before the japanese ran out of resources and the germans ran out of manpower.

The interesting thing is that both Germany and Japan, despite the constant bombing of their manufacturing centers, still were making considerable amounts of war equipment right up to their respective surrenders. Japan had nearly 9000 warplanes dispersed throughout Northern Honshu, Korea and Manchuria in preparation for Operations Olympic and Coronet. Its the lack of TRAINED manpower to operate that equipment and a lack of fuel that were the nails in their respective coffins.
(This post was last modified: 12-11-2014 10:09 AM by 49RFootballNow.)
12-11-2014 10:07 AM
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runamuck Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Pearl Harbor
(12-11-2014 10:07 AM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  
(12-11-2014 09:10 AM)runamuck Wrote:  
(10-11-2014 06:21 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I think the importance of the size of the material advantage is overplayed a bit by many historians.

basically the war was decided in favor of the allies once the u.s. was in. we had vast amounts of available men and resources and an ocean on each end for protection. it was just a matter of gearing up and formulating the best strategy. from what I have read, pretty soon after we entered the war the deal making began for who gets what afterward. it was only a matter of time before the japanese ran out of resources and the germans ran out of manpower.

The interesting thing is that both Germany and Japan, despite the constant bombing of their manufacturing centers, still were making considerable amounts of war equipment right up to their respective surrenders. Japan had nearly 9000 warplanes dispersed throughout Northern Honshu, Korea and Manchuria in preparation for Operations Olympic and Coronet. Its the lack of TRAINED manpower to operate that equipment and a lack of fuel that were the nails in their respective coffins.

maybe so but I once new a guy who was a kid in japan during the war. he said they were out of everything. the kids were sent out during school to scrounge for scrap metal and such things as pine cones which they could eat and also use for fuel.
12-12-2014 09:07 AM
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runamuck Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Pearl Harbor
(10-11-2014 05:32 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  
(10-11-2014 11:01 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  That is an interesting article but it doesn't tell the whole story. Japan's Naval air service did not lack for planes, in fact most Japanese military forces never really lacked for equipment, but they completely lacked trained aircrews, experienced pilots, etc. Throughout the war the Japanese also stockpiled massive amounts of hardware on the home islands and did not ship it throughout the pacific, even though as late as Nov of 44' they maintained a nearly intact transit system throughout the empire.

The Germans and the Japanese would let their best pilots fly till they were killed. This is why Germany has fighter aces with hundreds of kills, but its a terrible waste of a good pilot. There comes a point where you are wasting their talents IN the cockpit. The US would yank experienced crews to pass that experience on to other crews. Had the Japanese Naval Air Arm and especially the Luftwaffe done this the war would have been much harder. Neither lacked airplanes even late in the war.

my dad was the back seat guy in an sbd during the war. he flew off a carrier in the pacific. he said the jap planes were plenty good but not armored as much as ours. we had self-sealing gas tanks and some steel plating around the pilots and some of their planes used smaller caliber armament so in a shoot out with them we had a better chance. dad was actually shot down twice and survived. his carrier was the chenango a converted tanker ship. since the ship had two hulls, he said it could take a lot of hits and not sink. it was shorter than a regular carrier and every landing was somewhat of a crash.
12-12-2014 09:17 AM
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49RFootballNow Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Pearl Harbor
(12-12-2014 09:17 AM)runamuck Wrote:  
(10-11-2014 05:32 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  
(10-11-2014 11:01 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  That is an interesting article but it doesn't tell the whole story. Japan's Naval air service did not lack for planes, in fact most Japanese military forces never really lacked for equipment, but they completely lacked trained aircrews, experienced pilots, etc. Throughout the war the Japanese also stockpiled massive amounts of hardware on the home islands and did not ship it throughout the pacific, even though as late as Nov of 44' they maintained a nearly intact transit system throughout the empire.

The Germans and the Japanese would let their best pilots fly till they were killed. This is why Germany has fighter aces with hundreds of kills, but its a terrible waste of a good pilot. There comes a point where you are wasting their talents IN the cockpit. The US would yank experienced crews to pass that experience on to other crews. Had the Japanese Naval Air Arm and especially the Luftwaffe done this the war would have been much harder. Neither lacked airplanes even late in the war.

my dad was the back seat guy in an sbd during the war. he flew off a carrier in the pacific. he said the jap planes were plenty good but not armored as much as ours. we had self-sealing gas tanks and some steel plating around the pilots and some of their planes used smaller caliber armament so in a shoot out with them we had a better chance. dad was actually shot down twice and survived. his carrier was the chenango a converted tanker ship. since the ship had two hulls, he said it could take a lot of hits and not sink. it was shorter than a regular carrier and every landing was somewhat of a crash.

Specifically in the case of the A6M Zero, but also most Japanese planes, the idea was to make them as light as possible to improve their range and maneuverability. The light guns also go along with that theory. It worked out great early on for them as the F4F Wildcat had less range and less maneuverability; but once the F6F Hellcat showed up the Zero's lack of firepower and protection became glaring. Even with later Japanese plane designs; like the Kawanishi N1K George, Ki-100, Ki-61 Hien, Nakajima Ki-84 Frank and Mitsubishi J2M Jack; they still favored lighter construction over pilot protection.
(This post was last modified: 12-12-2014 10:15 AM by 49RFootballNow.)
12-12-2014 10:15 AM
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