Note: 1-loss team list was added this week.

Teams with first loss week 4: 9

Kansas State
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
North Carolina
Florida
Missouri
Northern Illinois
LSU
California


Teams with second loss week 4: 19
Virginia Tech
Navy
Bowling Green
Akron
Army
Virginia
Central Michigan
Michigan
San Jose State
Texas State
Middle Tennessee
Louisiana Tech
Appalachian State
South Alabama
Utah State
West Virginia
Miami (FL)
Clemson
San Diego State



Teams with first win week 4: 4

Northwestern
Central Florida
New Mexico
Fresno State


Percent of Last Week's Undefeated Teams with 1st loss:

Week 1: 31.00% (40 of 129)
Week 2: 36.36% (32 of 88)
Week 3: 39.29% (22 of 56)
Week 4: 26.47% (9 of 34)



Week 4 Thoughts:

-First time this year we’ve seen the percent of teams losing their first game decline.

-One loss list was added this week. In the BCS era, only 1 team ever made the championship game with more losses than 1 (2007 LSU in the craziest year of college football I’ve ever seen). The CFP era will likely have 2 loss teams making it, but it’s still best to avoid falling off these first two lists if you want to be there.

-Biggest upset of the week saw Indiana beat previously unbeaten Missouri. Overall, a very good week for the Big Ten. From the conference, Maryland and Iowa took out a pair of undefeated ACC teams in Pitt and Syracuse.

-While last few weeks were a story of Big Ten misery, this week was more of ACC with unbeaten North Carolina falling to ECU in addition to the 2 previously mentioned ones. Also undefeated Florida State had issues with Winston out. However, with the Florida State victory, they are still very much in the national title race which will keep the ACC overall perception buoyed up.

-In our undefeated vs. undefeated games, we saw Auburn win at Kansas State, Alabama beat Florida, Mississippi State surprisingly go to LSU and come away with a win, and Arizona beat California.

-From the Group of 5, we saw North Illinois loose to Arkansas leaving us with only 2 undefeated Group of 5 teams in Cincinnati and Marshall. We currently have 15 more teams with one loss. Realistically at this point, there is probably nothing that a MAC, Sunbelt, or Conference USA school not named Marshall can/is likely to do to get them in the access bowl. An undefeated Cincinnati (which still has Ohio State and Miami(FL) on the schedule soon) would be a shoe-in for the access bowl spot. Should Marshall be the only undefeated left though, there will be big questions about them or another due to strength of schedule. Marshall can probably win that, but they absolutely must look impressive doing it.


-From the winless list, we saw Northwestern depart, eliminating the final team from one of the power 5 conferences on it. We also saw the last Mountain West team leave the list. We’re down to 7 teams looking for their first win.


Weeks 5 Thoughts:

-We have 2 games between unbeaten teams next week. We have UCLA at Arizona State on Thursday and Florida State at North Carolina State on Saturday.

-Marshall is off this week. Undefeated Cincinnati is playing at 1-loss Ohio State. If UC wins that game, expect them to be at the top of the list for the at large spot and for it to be an overall push for the American champ regardless (when combined with East Carolina’s wins).

-Our other games involving undefeated teams are: Northwestern @ undefeated Penn State, undefeated TCU @ SMU, Arkansas @ undefeated Texas A&M, Louisiana Tech @ undefeated Auburn, Stanford @ undefeated Washington, undefeated Duke @ Miami (FL), Memphis @ undefeated Ole Miss, undefeated Notre Dame @ Syracuse, undefeated Baylor @ Iowa State, Washington State @ undefeated Utah, Illinois @ undefeated Nebraska, undefeated Oregon State @ Southern California.

-With winless teams, the best chances for wins seem to be winless Massachusetts hosting Bowling Green (Bowling Green is a touchdown favorite), winless Miami (OH) playing at Buffalo (Buffalo is a 4 point favorite), and winless Idaho hosting South Alabama (South Alabama favored by 7).


Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 4, American Athletic: 1, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 0, PAC-12: 7, SEC: 5, independents: 2, total: 25


Florida State
North Carolina State
Duke
Georgia Tech
Baylor
Oklahoma
TCU
Cincinnati
Nebraska
Penn State
Marshall
Oregon
Oregon State
Washington
Arizona
Arizona State
UCLA
Utah
Alabama
Auburn
Mississippi State
Ole Miss
Texas A&M
Brigham Young
Notre Dame


1-loss Teams: ACC: 5, American: 3, Big 12: 4, Big Ten: 9, Conference USA: 3, MAC: 2, Mountain West: 5, PAC-12: 3, SEC: 7, Sunbelt: 2, independents: 0, total: 43


Louisville
Boston College
East Carolina
Memphis
Temple
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Kansas
Maryland
Ohio State
Indiana
Michigan State
Rutgers
Illinois
Iowa
Minnesota
Wisconsin
UAB
Old Dominion
UTEP
Western Michigan
Nevada
Boise State
Wyoming
Air Force
Colorado State
Stanford
Southern California
South Carolina
Tennessee
Kentucky
Georgia
Arkansas
New Mexico State
Louisiana-Monroe
Kansas State
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Florida
North Carolina
Missouri
Northern Illinois
Louisiana State
California


Remaining Winless Teams: American: 1, Big Ten: 0, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 3, Mountain West: 0, Sunbelt: 2, total: 7

Southern Methodist
Rice
Massachusetts
Miami (OH)
Kent State
Idaho
Troy

(09-22-2014 11:07 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  -With winless teams, the best chances for wins seem to be winless Massachusetts hosting Bowling Green (Bowling Green is a touchdown favorite), winless Miami (OH) playing at Buffalo (Buffalo is a 4 point favorite), and winless Idaho hosting South Alabama (South Alabama favored by 7).

Those three teams as 7 point or less underdogs are worth watching - but I'd have to say 0-3 Rice as a 10 point favorite on the road at Southern Miss has at least as good a shot, or better, than those three underdogs of getting its first win.
And hopefully, it's first of many.

Last week I put the over/under of teams that would lose their first game at 7.5.

As the list grows smaller, so does the over/under. This week, I would set it at 4.5 realizing that 9 unbeatens are idle this week.

There are only 2 games in which one unbeaten must lose: FSU-NC State and UCLA-Arizona State.

Other games where the undefeated team will not be a heavy favorite include Duke (Miami), Washington (Stanford), Oregon State (USC), Texas A&M (Arkansas) and Cincy (Ohio State).

If you are including A&M on that list of not being a heavy favorite you have to put Notre Dame in as well. A&M is a 10 pt favorite- ND is only a 13 pt favorite. Also Penn St is only a 11 pt favorite. Utah 10 pt favorite.

(09-23-2014 09:25 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If you are including A&M on that list of not being a heavy favorite you have to put Notre Dame in as well. A&M is a 10 pt favorite- ND is only a 13 pt favorite. Also Penn St is only a 11 pt favorite. Utah 10 pt favorite.

To be honest, I didn't look at Vegas odds when I made that list, because they weren't out yet. I'm mildly surprised that A&M is such a big favorite, especially in an intra-division game. My including it says more about how I view Arkansas and Syracuse than how I view A&M and Notre Dame.

At 4.5, I'm still taking the over this week.

(09-23-2014 10:32 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(09-23-2014 09:25 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If you are including A&M on that list of not being a heavy favorite you have to put Notre Dame in as well. A&M is a 10 pt favorite- ND is only a 13 pt favorite. Also Penn St is only a 11 pt favorite. Utah 10 pt favorite.

To be honest, I didn't look at Vegas odds when I made that list, because they weren't out yet. I'm mildly surprised that A&M is such a big favorite, especially in an intra-division game. My including it says more about how I view Arkansas and Syracuse than how I view A&M and Notre Dame.

At 4.5, I'm still taking the over this week.

i'd definitely take the over. 2 guarantees. Then Duke, Oregon St, and Washington are underdogs. I might set the over/under at 5.5 to be honest. And I still would probably take the over.

Thanks for putting this info together.

(09-23-2014 10:45 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-23-2014 10:32 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(09-23-2014 09:25 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If you are including A&M on that list of not being a heavy favorite you have to put Notre Dame in as well. A&M is a 10 pt favorite- ND is only a 13 pt favorite. Also Penn St is only a 11 pt favorite. Utah 10 pt favorite.

To be honest, I didn't look at Vegas odds when I made that list, because they weren't out yet. I'm mildly surprised that A&M is such a big favorite, especially in an intra-division game. My including it says more about how I view Arkansas and Syracuse than how I view A&M and Notre Dame.

At 4.5, I'm still taking the over this week.

i'd definitely take the over. 2 guarantees. Then Duke, Oregon St, and Washington are underdogs. I might set the over/under at 5.5 to be honest. And I still would probably take the over.

Wow. I did not see Duke being a 7 point underdog to Miami. The Blue Devils aren't getting much respect. I thought the Washington and A&M lines would be a little closer as well. That's what I get for picking before the lines come out. I'd have to agree with you on the over even at 5.5. You didn't even mention Cincy which is a two TD underdog at Ohio State.

This week's game between Texas and Kansas will be the first time that the 2 teams have played when Texas has a losing record and Kansas has a winning record.

That's never happened before.

On Kansas/Texas, Wow. Hard to believe that never happened. On Miami/Duke, I'm fairly stunned Miami is a favorite. Shows what I know.

(09-23-2014 07:39 AM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(09-22-2014 11:07 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  -With winless teams, the best chances for wins seem to be winless Massachusetts hosting Bowling Green (Bowling Green is a touchdown favorite), winless Miami (OH) playing at Buffalo (Buffalo is a 4 point favorite), and winless Idaho hosting South Alabama (South Alabama favored by 7).

Those three teams as 7 point or less underdogs are worth watching - but I'd have to say 0-3 Rice as a 10 point favorite on the road at Southern Miss has at least as good a shot, or better, than those three underdogs of getting its first win.
And hopefully, it's first of many.

Thanks. I saw the 10 points, but looked at it wrong (was trying to limit it a bit by only saying those within a touchdown, didn't occur to me one would be that big a favorite).

The over wins again. Of the 16 unbeatens who played in Week 5, 8 lost. Six of those came from either the ACC (Duke and NC State) or the PAC 12 (Arizona St, Washington, Oregon State and Utah).

So we are down to 17, and they are all playing this week. The over has been doing pretty well, so I'll raise it to 6.5 this week.

(09-28-2014 08:29 AM)ken d Wrote:  The over wins again. Of the 16 unbeatens who played in Week 5, 8 lost. Six of those came from either the ACC (Duke and NC State) or the PAC 12 (Arizona St, Washington, Oregon State and Utah).

So we are down to 17, and they are all playing this week. The over has been doing pretty well, so I'll raise it to 6.5 this week.

I do enjoy this over/under with this list.

Last year in Week 6 three unbeatens fell, all at the hands of another unbeaten. At the end of the day, there were 17 remaining. This year, there can be no more than 13, and it's likely the number will be closer to 10.

(09-28-2014 12:44 PM)ken d Wrote:  Last year in Week 6 three unbeatens fell, all at the hands of another unbeaten. At the end of the day, there were 17 remaining. This year, there can be no more than 13, and it's likely the number will be closer to 10.

Could be down to 11.

Arizona (at Oregon)
Ole Miss (Alabama)
TCU (Oklahoma)

Then you might see these:

Notre Dame (vs Stanford)
Nebraska (at Michigan State)
Auburn (LSU)