So let's see what we all think...

What are realistic stats for Kiel this year when it's all said and done?

I know it's not apples to apples because the offenses are so different but for reference here are Pike, Collaros, and Kay's stats in their respective first full seasons:

Pike:
2008
completions:199
attempts: 324
%:61.4
yards: 2407
TD: 19
INT: 11
Rating: 136.4

Collaros:
2010
completions: 225
attempts: 383
%: 58.7
yards: 2902
TD: 26
Int: 14
Rating: 137.5


Kay
2013
completions: 262
attempts: 395
%: 66.3
yards: 3302
TD: 22
Int: 12
Rating: 148.9


What say you regarding Kiel? Yards, %, TD, Int, Rating....what do you think the kid will end up with. Keep in mind he's a frosh who hasn't played in a real game in a couple of years, BUT that is balanced out a little by the fact he has a fantastic line and potentially one of the deepest/best receiving corps UC has ever had...

Let's hear it...

Kiel is actually a Soph in terms of eligibility but in terms of experience he is a frosh. My gut reaction without over-thinking and analyzing is that he will end up with numbers similar to Kay. He has the talent, size and arm to go with two lines of quality receivers and a system that will exploit all of it. Throw in the AAC conference's weaker overall strength and he should post some great stats at year's end. I predict he will end up with a lower completion percentage than Kay but more TDs. My two cents...

Completely realistic targets:

3,500 yards, 8.0 yards per attempt, 65 percent completion rate, 30 touchdowns, 10 interceptions...which equates to a QB rating of 142.8 if you figure on 450 pass attempts which is in the ballpark for number of attempts given a) the faster pace they are going to play with this year and b) the fact that they won't spend the first month of the season trying to fit a square peg in a round hole personnel wise.

I think we can reasonably expect to see something between Zach and Kay. He's going to throw some picks and have down games. Inexperience does that.

Kiel may be inexperienced, but he's also a bit older and probably wiser then the average college sophomore. Maturity, the difference between being a man and a boy, is what set Sean Kilpatrick apart from the crowd. Kiel has the skills, and if he shows the strength of purpose and leadership qualities that Kilpatrick did, he's going to have a good year. Go Bearcats!

As long as our running game gives us some balance, Kiel will have a good year. I'm hoping for somewhere between Collaros and Kay numbers. Mistakes are going to happen but I think those numbers are optimistic. In his first year in D-1 football after being off so long, and being realistic, I would be very happy with the following numbers:

%: 58.7
yards: 2902
TD: 26
Int: 14
Rating: 137.5

(Collaros' Numbers - though the in conference competition level is probably not as tough as Zach's first year)

I'm expecting:

55%
2500 yards
20td
10int


I'd be really really happy with:
58%
3000 yards
25td
8int