Bowling Green will be the favorite to win the league.

Northern Illinois losses Jordan Lynch and Jimmie Ward but should still be at the top of the West.

Hard to see UMass, Miami, Eastern and Western Michigan rising from the bottom.

What are your predictions for the season?

Here's our preview: MAC Football 2014

If your expectation of us is dead last, you will be wrong. UMass has never finished dead last. We have some more talent and a far better head coach. Guess we'll have to surprise you. OOC will not be pretty since we are young with 5 seniors and 3 are starts, new offense and defense, and coaches.

Just the same expect to see us improve as the season goes on.

(08-22-2014 01:14 PM)Steve1981 Wrote:  If your expectation of us is dead last, you will be wrong. UMass has never finished dead last. We have some more talent and a far better head coach. Guess we'll have to surprise you. OOC will not be pretty since we are young with 5 seniors and 3 are starts, new offense and defense, and coaches.

Just the same expect to see us improve as the season goes on.

That's true UMass hasn't finished last, but they have finished with one MAC win the past two seasons.

Glad to see Whipple back at the helm for the Minutemen.

couple comments about the MAC East rankings-

1. putting half of the teams in a tie is a bit of a cop out when doing rankings, no?
3. there's no #2. when ranking things if there is a tie the tied teams take the next available spot so it would be 1.,2.,2.,2.,5. but this has 1.,3.,3.,3.,3.,5., seems confusing.

(08-22-2014 02:06 PM)perimeterpost Wrote:  couple comments about the MAC East rankings-

1. putting half of the teams in a tie is a bit of a cop out when doing rankings, no?
3. there's no #2. when ranking things if there is a tie the tied teams take the next available spot so it would be 1.,2.,2.,2.,5. but this has 1.,3.,3.,3.,3.,5., seems confusing.

If you pick game by game and it comes out a tie that's what you go with.

A lot of people use ties: Stassen Rating If you look here Phil Steele has a three way tie in the AAC.

Stassen has us listed this way.
So the East is 1,3,3,3,5,6,7

Ties happen a lot. If you look at the ACC Coastal last season they had a three way tie.

(08-22-2014 12:58 PM)arenafanatic Wrote:  Bowling Green will be the favorite to win the league.

Northern Illinois losses Jordan Lynch and Jimmie Ward but should still be at the top of the West.

Hard to see UMass, Miami, Eastern and Western Michigan rising from the bottom.

What are your predictions for the season?

Here's our preview: MAC Football 2014

BG only returns 5 on Defense and lose 2 First Team All-MAC OL. Steele's rates their OL #10 in the MAC and DL #4. The Falcons lost(4 in a row) at home to a mediocre Rocket team last season and visit the Glass Bowl where their historic winning% is about 5%. Sound like real favorites.

(08-22-2014 02:26 PM)arenafanatic Wrote:  

(08-22-2014 02:06 PM)perimeterpost Wrote:  couple comments about the MAC East rankings-

1. putting half of the teams in a tie is a bit of a cop out when doing rankings, no?
3. there's no #2. when ranking things if there is a tie the tied teams take the next available spot so it would be 1.,2.,2.,2.,5. but this has 1.,3.,3.,3.,3.,5., seems confusing.

If you pick game by game and it comes out a tie that's what you go with.

A lot of people use ties: Stassen Rating If you look here Phil Steele has a three way tie in the AAC.

Stassen has us listed this way.
So the East is 1,3,3,3,5,6,7

Ties happen a lot. If you look at the ACC Coastal last season they had a three way tie.

ok, I see. I was reading it as how you ranked them but you were ranking them on how you think they'll finish. got it.

BG vs UT,NIU,CMU in that order of likely finish. CMU has talent do NOT sleep on CMU.

BG hired a GREAT coach, he may be one and done. They will be tough to deal with. Best bottom feeder to improve EMU.

I predict MACTION will happen.

Here is both sides of the coin from one of our beat writers from the Hampshire Gazette, Matt Vautour.

Quote:Friday, August 22, 2014
A week from now, everyone will have a better idea, who was right — the professional prognosticators, who’ve predicted another bad year for the UMass football team, or the Minutemen themselves, who believe they’re on the brink of a break out season.

UMass opens against Boston College on Saturday at 3 p.m. at Gillette Stadium.

The Minutemen were picked last among all college football teams in the Bowl Subdivision by USA Today which dwarfs also being picked last in the Mid-American Conference east division in the league’s preseason poll. The preseason magazines all have UMass near the bottom of the MAC and the bottom of the FBS.

And why not? The Minutemen are coming off back-to-back 1-11 seasons, which is not exactly yeast for optimism.

The players think they’ll be much better than that, but they thought they’d be better in 2012 and 2013 too. Everybody thinks they’ll be better in camp. But with a new coach, a new attitude and several key new players, there’s reason to think UMass should be better. How much better is the real question:

WORST CASE SCENARIO — New quarterback Blake Frohnapfel never gets on track. The young offensive line suffers through injuries and/or inconsistency and none of the running backs emerge from the pack. The offensive woes force the defense to stay on the field for too long again. The five tough games to open the season sap the Minutemen’s early optimism and they never get any momentum in the MAC.

It rains on Aug. 30 (vs. Boston College) and snows on Nov. 12 (a Wednesday night vs. Ball State) and fans stay away from the two highest profile games on the schedule. Miami (Ohio) avenges last year’s loss in Foxborough and UMass’s lone win comes against Eastern Michigan for the Minutemen’s third straight 1-11 season. It finishes last in the MAC and proving the prognosticators right.

BEST CASE SCENARIO — The new-face-filled offense clicks around Frohnapfel. The upstart Minutemen pull an upset in one of their first two home games against struggling former powerhouses Boston College or Colorado, who are picked low in the ACC and Pac 12 respectively. Several of the running backs all contribute. Unlike the last two years, the offense’s ability to move the ball keeps the defense from being overworked.

Kassan Messiah and Trey Dudley-Giles each earn all-conference honors.

UMass wins games against Kent State, Eastern Michigan, Miami (Ohio) and Akron and are 5-6 heading into the season finale against Buffalo. McGuirk is sold out with a postseason berth on the line. The Minutemen score late to move to 6-6 and earn a bid to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Whipple wins MAC coach of the year.

SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE — Some Minuteman players would consider the best case scenario an undersell of what they’re capable of, but reaching .500 would certainly be cause for wild celebration. There are below .500 records that would spark long-term optimism for UMass fans.

How many wins constitutes a successful season depends on who’s being asked, but most Minuteman fans have a low bar for what would make them happy:

1. A team that’s more watchable offensively — not too hard to pull off considering.

2. Fewer shaky play calls, time outs and clock management decisions.

3. Being competitive into the fourth quarter.

4. Three or more wins.

All are attainable. UMass has never actually finished last in the MAC east despite twice being picked there and the league isn’t as good as its been the past two years.

It’s hard to imagine the offense won’t be at least a little better. It was so poorly executed last year and still UMass nearly won two more games (Western Michigan, Akron). With an even passable offensive showing, it might have beaten Maine. The Minutemen’s crater-low external expectations stem from being 1-11, but this is truthfully a team that had enough talent to be 4-8.

On top of that, UMass has only five seniors (including graduate students Alex Kenney and Brian McDonald who’ll run out of eligibility after this season on the roster). All progress made this year helps build toward a 2015 seasons that should feature much more optimism

Can UMass Football exceed low expectations?

I think so.

Miami will not finish last in the east.

Low expectations are the best!

(08-23-2014 07:18 AM)Love and Honor Wrote:  Miami will not finish last in the east.

Where do you see the Redhawks finishing?

See UMass finishing 5th in the east and 10th over all with 3 wins.

(08-23-2014 11:02 AM)arenafanatic Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 07:18 AM)Love and Honor Wrote:  Miami will not finish last in the east.

Where do you see the Redhawks finishing?

Probably sixth, fifth if we're lucky. We'll beat EKU, UMass, and I think we'll have a fighting chance against KSU, WMU, and CMU.

On a side note, Akron will make a bowl.

(08-23-2014 11:58 AM)Love and Honor Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 11:02 AM)arenafanatic Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 07:18 AM)Love and Honor Wrote:  Miami will not finish last in the east.

Where do you see the Redhawks finishing?

Probably sixth, fifth if we're lucky. We'll beat EKU, UMass, and I think we'll have a fighting chance against KSU, WMU, and CMU.

On a side note, Akron will make a bowl.

Seems reasonable for Miami. UMass and WMU will be the key games.

I'm with you on Akron. Back to a bowl for the first time since 2005.

If you look at the bottom 1/3 of the MAC I think their biggest chance to win will be vs non conference opponents and vs each other. The bottom 4 MAC teams will each play 2 games against other bottom 1/3 opponents.

Head to head-
UMass @ Miami
WMU @ Miami
EMU @ WMU
EMU @ UMass

Here is how their non conference schedules shake out-
UMass- 4 P5s
EMU- 2 P5s, 1 FCS, 1 FBS transition
WMU- 2 P5s, 1 FCS, @Idaho
Miami- 1 P5, 1 FCS, Cinci, Marshall

If you give the head to head matchups to the home team and assume wins over FCS teams and a very weak Idaho team in non conference play the bottom 1/3 of the MAC projects to finish like this-
3-9 Miami
3-9 WMU
2-10 EMU
1-11 UMass

The wildcard in this calculation is the coaching staffs-
UMass- new coach
EMU- new coach
Miami- new coach
WMU- 2nd yr coach (elite! RTB!)

I believe the coaching staffs' ability to focus, rally, and lead these teams will have a bigger impact on the results than the talent level of the players on the field. Will there be a surprising upset from one of these teams? Magic 8 Ball says to check back later, future not clear.

(08-23-2014 01:40 PM)perimeterpost Wrote:  Here is how their non conference schedules shake out-
UMass- 4 P5s
EMU- 1 FCS, 1 FCS transition to FBS (ODU), 2 P5s
WMU- 2 P5s, 1 FCS, @Idaho
Miami- 1 FCS, 2 P5s, Marshall

Just a nitpick, but UC is now a G5 school. We're actually playing them at Paul Brown Stadium since Nippert is under construction, so we can hope that it'll somewhat resemble a neutral site game instead of being away.

(08-23-2014 02:52 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 01:40 PM)perimeterpost Wrote:  Here is how their non conference schedules shake out-
UMass- 4 P5s
EMU- 1 FCS, 1 FCS transition to FBS (ODU), 2 P5s
WMU- 2 P5s, 1 FCS, @Idaho
Miami- 1 FCS, 2 P5s, Marshall

Just a nitpick, but UC is now a G5 school. We're actually playing them at Paul Brown Stadium since Nippert is under construction, so we can hope that it'll somewhat resemble a neutral site game instead of being away.

This maybe a wrong assumption on my part, but thought strength of schedule has an impact on ratings and therefore tier 2 money.

(08-23-2014 12:36 PM)arenafanatic Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 11:58 AM)Love and Honor Wrote:  Probably sixth, fifth if we're lucky. We'll beat EKU, UMass, and I think we'll have a fighting chance against KSU, WMU, and CMU.

On a side note, Akron will make a bowl.

Seems reasonable for Miami. UMass and WMU will be the key games.

I'm with you on Akron. Back to a bowl for the first time since 2005.

By that point of the season we'll probably have lost five of our last six games with an easier schedule down the stretch. Hopefully we'll be coached up throughout the season and not too demoralized so we can finish strong. Last year it was almost a foregone conclusion that we were going winless once we lost to Akron with five games to go, and it showed in how we played.

Martin was quoted a week or so ago as saying that the program is already a year ahead of where he thought it would be now. This leads me to believe that our problems last year were more coaching related as opposed to talent (with a large exception being in the trenches), after all Treadwell's recruiting classes were towards of the top of the MAC on paper. I'm as optimistic as possible for a team that went winless a year ago.

Also, who does everyone see on the hot seat this year? I think it'll be somewhat quiet, the worst teams of the MAC have all gotten new coaches. I can see Enos being fired if the Chips implode, but other than that I think everyone else stays unless Solich retires (not accounting for poaching of course).