(07-22-2014 08:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:25 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:14 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:05 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 07:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  yeah definitely would need to become clear. Right now, in the 3 years of 10 team Big 12-
2011- Oklahoma St definitely would have been in
2012- Kansas St would have been in the discussion for sure- not sure if another game would have put them over the top quite frankly. Not getting in over ND, Alabama for sure. In a group with Florida, Stanford(p12 champ), and Oregon for 2 slots.
2013- same thing with Baylor last year... Less of a shot though....

So 1 definite yes, 1 definite no. 1 maybe. hardly conclusive...

1 definite yes, 2 that are iffy based on margin of the one loss.

You can make a good argument that if BU and KSU lose close games instead of by big margins they would be in the playoff those years.

last year would have been pretty tough. No way in over FSU, Auburn, or really Michigan St. It'd be between Baylor, Alabama, and Stanford.

2 years ago, KSU losing a closer game would have helped a lot more I think.

Baylor would have had a stronger SOS and a similar loss to MSU. It would be tough but I think the conference champion criteria would favor BU and MSU over Bama. If not I think we would edge them if we had lost narrowly. Either way you are correct that it would have helped KSU more.

MSU in over Baylor just from a better win. Ohio St viewed as a better win than Oklahoma. Think Bama still gets in over Baylor. And Stanford still sitting there as well....

We can argue it all day. Either way it comes down to the committee and favoring conference champions and SOS is one of the few marching orders they have been given.

Also Stanford had two losses to mediocre teams. No chance they would have made it.

The WAY you lose will matter is my main point.

The point isn't whether he is right or not. The point is the timing and that Dodd is going after the Big 12 right after the news about autonomy.

Not having a championship game could be a blessing or a curse, there's no way to know until the season plays itself out.

(07-22-2014 08:14 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:12 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:05 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 07:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  yeah definitely would need to become clear. Right now, in the 3 years of 10 team Big 12-
2011- Oklahoma St definitely would have been in
2012- Kansas St would have been in the discussion for sure- not sure if another game would have put them over the top quite frankly. Not getting in over ND, Alabama for sure. In a group with Florida, Stanford(p12 champ), and Oregon for 2 slots.
2013- same thing with Baylor last year... Less of a shot though....

So 1 definite yes, 1 definite no. 1 maybe. hardly conclusive...

1 definite yes, 2 that are iffy based on margin of the one loss.

You can make a good argument that if BU and KSU lose close games instead of by big margins they would be in the playoff those years.

After their loss they fell to #6 in the BCS poll I believe.

After losing by multiple TD's. It would have been a lesser fall if they lose in triple OT IMO and they probably would have made a 4 team playoff. You have to look at the body of work and they would have been 8-1 in Big 12 play with the one coming narrowly, they laid waste to an ACC division champ (Miami) in non-con, and were very strong all year. Given the committee preference for conference champions I find it hard to argue that ND, Bama, KSU, and Oregon would not have been the 4.

If SOS is a big factor then Florida was likely in. Wins over 4 teams in the top 15 of the final regular season rankings (Texas A&M, LSU, South Carolina, Florida State).

(07-22-2014 09:26 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:14 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:12 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:05 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 07:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  yeah definitely would need to become clear. Right now, in the 3 years of 10 team Big 12-
2011- Oklahoma St definitely would have been in
2012- Kansas St would have been in the discussion for sure- not sure if another game would have put them over the top quite frankly. Not getting in over ND, Alabama for sure. In a group with Florida, Stanford(p12 champ), and Oregon for 2 slots.
2013- same thing with Baylor last year... Less of a shot though....

So 1 definite yes, 1 definite no. 1 maybe. hardly conclusive...

1 definite yes, 2 that are iffy based on margin of the one loss.

You can make a good argument that if BU and KSU lose close games instead of by big margins they would be in the playoff those years.

After their loss they fell to #6 in the BCS poll I believe.

After losing by multiple TD's. It would have been a lesser fall if they lose in triple OT IMO and they probably would have made a 4 team playoff. You have to look at the body of work and they would have been 8-1 in Big 12 play with the one coming narrowly, they laid waste to an ACC division champ (Miami) in non-con, and were very strong all year. Given the committee preference for conference champions I find it hard to argue that ND, Bama, KSU, and Oregon would not have been the 4.

If SOS is a big factor then Florida was likely in. Wins over 4 teams in the top 15 of the final regular season rankings (Texas A&M, LSU, South Carolina, Florida State).

Did not win their league or their division.

SOS is one factor. Conference champion is another.

KSU was the #14 SOS and won their league. UF was the #4 SOS and didn't win their division.

I believe that SOS is going to be subjective, not based on a formula. That is to say, selection will be made the way it has always been made - the eyeball test.

But I would like to see a rule: If your conference has a CCG, then no team can be selected unless they play in that game.

Until we go to 8 teams, one P5 conference must be shut out. While that is the case, I expect that the selection committee will use this as a tie-breaker in naming the fourth school: they will pick a team from the conference most recently excluded from the playoff. And why not? There isn't any way to distinguish between the fourth best team and the fifth best. If the pick is arbitrary anyway, why not use it to spread the wealth?

(07-22-2014 12:26 AM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  He's absolutely correct. It "might not" be enough.

If team A and team B have identical regular season records against similarly ranked foes...let's say 11-1 each, with wins against 3 top 25 teams, 6 top 50 teams, and a loss against a top 10 team...but team A also has an extra win in game 13 of the season against a top 10 team...

...how in the world can you NOT say that team A has a better schedule and is more deserving.

For the sake of argument, Tim Brando (new FOX anchor for CFB) predicted that the SEC would be shut out of the playoff this year b/c he foresees their champ having two regular season losses. (This would be VERY interesting!)

Every year is going to be a new paradigm in the new system...just like every year was a new paradigm in the BCS days. (Even as late as 2011--when a non-division winner made the BCS title game--were new scenarios being created...)

It would help his argument if he didn't get his facts so terribly wrong. He says Alabama got in over Okie St. because they won their conference championship game. Of course, Alabama didn't even win their division that year. They got in because it was the BCS and they were Alabama, much as he discusses later in his article that OU and Alabama have an advantage over a Baylor. But it won't be as big an advantage as in the BCS when pollsters could anonymously put anything they wanted without being challenged. Now the committee has to defend their choices.

What's going to happen in years when you have Notre dame and three or four teams from the ACC, B10, SEC and PAC have one loss or less? I think the 11-1 Big Twelve champ will be in trouble.

Another wrinkle: What if Florida goes 12-0 during the regular season but loses in the SEC CCG game to an 11-1 LSU? Do both SEC teams get in over a 11-1 Big Twelve Champ?

(07-22-2014 09:00 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:25 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:14 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:05 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  1 definite yes, 2 that are iffy based on margin of the one loss.

You can make a good argument that if BU and KSU lose close games instead of by big margins they would be in the playoff those years.

last year would have been pretty tough. No way in over FSU, Auburn, or really Michigan St. It'd be between Baylor, Alabama, and Stanford.

2 years ago, KSU losing a closer game would have helped a lot more I think.

Baylor would have had a stronger SOS and a similar loss to MSU. It would be tough but I think the conference champion criteria would favor BU and MSU over Bama. If not I think we would edge them if we had lost narrowly. Either way you are correct that it would have helped KSU more.

MSU in over Baylor just from a better win. Ohio St viewed as a better win than Oklahoma. Think Bama still gets in over Baylor. And Stanford still sitting there as well....

We can argue it all day. Either way it comes down to the committee and favoring conference champions and SOS is one of the few marching orders they have been given.

Also Stanford had two losses to mediocre teams. No chance they would have made it.

The WAY you lose will matter is my main point.

That's one of the biases of the committee. Lose to a bad team (or a bad loss) will offset 2 or 3 wins against good teams. That kind of came out with the mock committee a couple of years ago. They didn't include KSU in their top 8.

So who has made the top 2?
SEC-ACC
SEC-Ind
SEC-SEC
SEC-Pac
SEC-Big 12
SEC-Big 12
SEC-Big 10
SEC-Big 10
Big 12-Pac
Pac-Big 12
SEC-Big 12

Everybody but the SEC has had trouble getting to the title game recently.

Most likely, its all a theoretical discussion. The line between teams is usually not that close.

(07-22-2014 10:14 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  What's going to happen in years when you have Notre dame and three or four teams from the ACC, B10, SEC and PAC have one loss or less? I think the 11-1 Big Twelve champ will be in trouble.

Another wrinkle: What if Florida goes 12-0 during the regular season but loses in the SEC CCG game to an 11-1 LSU? Do both SEC teams get in over a 11-1 Big Twelve Champ?

It depends on who has beaten whom and by how much, who has lost to whom and by how much, and when those wins and losses occurred.

The problem would be on of the following scenarios where there are Co-Champions. That is where I can see an extra game hurt.

Texas 11-1 Lost to Oklahoma.
Oklahoma 11-1 Lost to Baylor.
Baylor 11-1 Lost to Texas.

FSU - 12-1
OSU 12-1
USC - 12-1
Alabama 12-1

I think Jimbo Fisher got it right when he basically stated the goal is to get the CCG's to be the first round of the playoffs. That is why I see the ACC request for the Championship Game will be approved but the the B12 10 team request will stay out 12 forcing the B12 to consider expanding.

If the new rule was in place, last year championship could have been the following. The only one that did happen was OSU/MSU.
Auburn/Bama rematch
Clemson/FSU
MSU/OSU
Stanford/Oregon

(07-22-2014 10:20 AM)bullet Wrote:  Most likely, its all a theoretical discussion. The line between teams is usually not that close.

The line between teams is always that close. Since the BCS started matching #1 vs #2, #2 won half the time. That is to say, picking who is the better team is no better than a coin toss.

Sounding like the B12 is about to get the BE treatment.

The only question is will the Big go back to 12 or even go to 14 teams. They will soon. The pool of possible new is:

BYU
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Colorado State
Connecticut
East Carolina
South Florida

If Dodd is right and the absence of a championship game hurts the Big12 in terms of the playoff (and transitively helps the other leagues' chances), why would the people in other leagues like Jimbo Fisher want to force them to have a championship game (and transitively hurt their chances for the playoffs)? It seems like it would be in the best interest of the other leagues for the Big 12 to not have a championship game.

(07-22-2014 10:45 AM)PirateMarv Wrote:  Sounding like the B12 is about to get the BE treatment.

History has a tendency of repeating itself. The key in college football is to not perceived as the weakest.

(07-22-2014 11:00 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 10:45 AM)PirateMarv Wrote:  Sounding like the B12 is about to get the BE treatment.

History has a tendency of repeating itself. The key in college football is to not perceived as the weakest.

If we start hearing rumors those about Texas and Oklahoma moving to other conferences again, then the P5 is probably on the way to becoming P4.

(07-22-2014 11:05 AM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 11:00 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 10:45 AM)PirateMarv Wrote:  Sounding like the B12 is about to get the BE treatment.

History has a tendency of repeating itself. The key in college football is to not perceived as the weakest.

If we start hearing rumors those about Texas and Oklahoma moving to other conferences again, then the P5 is probably on the way to becoming P4.

Say Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC.

Kansas and Connecticut to Big 10.

Texas Tech and Oklahoma State to PAC 12

This leaves Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU, Baylor and West Virginia out on a limb.

I think the ACC adds West Virginia and Cincinnati.

The American Athletic, having lost Cincinnati and Connecticut replaces them with Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU, and Baylor to get to 14 teams.

So the real question is will their be just a P4 or will The American Athletic become the fifth conference of the P5?

(07-22-2014 11:32 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 11:05 AM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 11:00 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 10:45 AM)PirateMarv Wrote:  Sounding like the B12 is about to get the BE treatment.

History has a tendency of repeating itself. The key in college football is to not perceived as the weakest.

If we start hearing rumors those about Texas and Oklahoma moving to other conferences again, then the P5 is probably on the way to becoming P4.

Say Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC.

Kansas and Connecticut to Big 10.

Texas Tech and Oklahoma State to PAC 12

This leaves Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU, Baylor and West Virginia out on a limb.

I think the ACC adds West Virginia and Cincinnati.

The American Athletic, having lost Cincinnati and Connecticut replaces them with Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU, and Baylor to get to 14 teams.

So the real question is will their be just a P4 or will The American Athletic become the fifth conference of the P5?

Probably the same as if you had the following:

VT & NC State to the SEC

UNC and UVA to the B1G

FSU, Clemson, GT, Miami, Duke, and Pitt to the Big 12

Rest of ACC & AAC merge


Do we have P4 or P5? Depends on too many factors and NEITHER scenario is likely to occur in the next decade.