(07-18-2014 02:50 PM)ark30inf Wrote: (07-18-2014 02:47 PM)WMD Owl Wrote: If the West plays the Cards right this incident could result in Russian discontinuing support for the Ukrainian Rebels resulting in the Ukrainian Government winning this Civil War and keeping most of the country intact.
Russia has Crimea which was the Target in the first place. A Partition of the Eastern Provinces is just gravy.
I'd voice strong public outrage, demand investigations, etc. but in Private offer the Russians a easy way out which they will take.
The Russian goal is for anywhere in their SOI where Russian ethnics are present in large numbers...it ultimately becomes part of Russia.
That isn't going to stop because of a plane incident.
Yea, but the Russians are leaving Eastern Ukraine in massive numbers. And they were always a minority in every single region of Eastern Ukraine (not Russian speakers, but Russian ethnics that support a transfer). And the numbers are looking worse everyday for those that support a Putin led Novorussia in Southern/Eastern Ukraine.
Putin got Crimea. And will lose every last inch of Eastern Ukraine. And the behavior of the Putin supporters there are likely making it impossible for any significant number of them to stay. 300,000 have already left. They might not know it yet, but they've left for good.
This isn't going to stop because of a plane incident. But the underground support of Ukraine by the West with lethal and non-lethal aid is about to become overt. Putin's position is becoming untenable in Ukraine. Unless he wants to invade overtly. Which he really wants to do, but he's not going to be able to without doing even more damage to his country.
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Here's your end game.
1) Russia damages the crash site. Tries to blame shift. No one believes them.
2) Massive lethal and non-lethal aid to Kiev.
3) Russia will not be able to continue to provide air support to the rebels.
4) Ukraine will gradually seal off the rebel held areas and cut them off.
5) The DPR will fall. 200,000 more ethnic Russians will flee to Russia.
6) Russia will cut off natgas to Ukraine. Ukraine will cut off natural gas, water, and power to Crimea.
7) The Europeans will issue more sanctions. Some of them will bite
8) Russian intransigence will give Obama the cover to continue with the one piece of sanctions he really wants - killing South Stream
9) Ukraine will cut off access to Transdnestria. Moldova will do the same, thus ensuring that that statelet will be folded back into Moldova.
All of this will happen this year.
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Russia on January 1, 2015
1) 550,000 to 700,000 displaced persons on Russian soil. All of whom think Putin sold them out. Resettlement costs will be massive
2) Russia's dreams of continued nat gas pressure on Eastern Europe delayed, if not destroyed.
3) Russia even more isolated in Europe and the West. And with a bad reputation everywhere not named China. But China isn't going to subsidize them. That's not their style.
4) Another 50 Billion in Capital flight, to go along with the 75 Billion already gone this year
5) A loss of 50 Billion as the Russian Ministry of Finance has to engage in currency purchases to prop up the Ruble in order to keep inflation from jumping above 10 percent. And the Ruble will still fall
6) An economy in recession
7) A need to spend 100 Billion to prop up a Crimean statelet with no more agriculture, frequent blackouts, and no tourism.
8) An end to the Transdnestrian statelet and the Gaugiz "Republic".
9) The end of any dreams of a CIS customs union. Sure Kazakhstan, Belarus, and 'nominally' Armenia will still belong to it, but it will be useless as a tool to compete with the EU.
By the way, Putin will still be 'popular' on 1/1/15. But he won't be stronger.
