(07-09-2014 03:14 PM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(07-09-2014 02:38 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(07-09-2014 11:48 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(07-08-2014 11:38 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  Without diving into the rhetoric you could make a case for the following teams having a shot this year if the chips fell just right based on strong OOC slates:

(In no specific order)

UCF
ECU
Cincy
Fresno State
San Diego State
Arkansas State
UL-Lafayette
Navy

The question remains though, what does the situation have to look like in order for them to get a look?

I think you'd have to have only 1 'traditional' power in the top 5 and the rest be lesser P5 schools MS St., Oregon St., Oklahoma St., or Iowa or teams like them. Teams like Ohio State, Alabama, LSU, Texas, etc would all have to be out of the mix.

I think if the top 5 looked like,

1) Kansas State 12-0
2) Arizona 11-1
3) Iowa 10-2
4) NC State 11-1
5) UCF 12-0

I think in that type of situation they get a look at least.

If it was:

1) LSU 13-0
2) Texas 12-0
3) Ohio State 13-1
4) Florida State 13-1
5) Houston 12-0

Then Houston, or any G5 school doesn't even have an argument.

Those are just throwing names and numbers to try to get a sense of what it has to look like to get a G5 team in it. I think it has to look pretty bleak. It has to look less bleak for an AAC team to get a look but even for my Cajuns to get in you'd have to have the top 5 teams all have three loses.

It would require some level of chaos at the top. Like in 2009 TCU finished #4 in the final BCS poll. #2 Texas won the Big XII title game by one, and #3 Cincy won it's final game against Pitt by one. TCU was two points away from playing Alabama in the title game.

The way the computers were likely to break had Texas lost it's a pretty good bet that TCU would have jumped UC. The Frogs were 1 point away from facing Bama.