I have a blog that, once in a very great while, I'll actually write for. I'm not here to push it (if I write once in 6 months, that's been pretty good), but thought some might enjoy this post, so am copying it below. http://thedebateoverangels.wordpress.com/


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(Many thanks to the Generational Dynamics website which is linked to a few times here as having very much helped me keep up and make sense of the Middle East happenings).

What’s going on in the Middle East is important, but I think if you are just listening to the news, you are missing a lot of key elements. I’m not expert on the situation, but here is my attempt to explain it and its implications going forward. Comments are appreciated if anyone has anything to add.

Sunni and Shia Islam

First you have to understand the Sunni/Shia dynamic here because it is very important (far more important than any Catholic/Protestant/Orthodox divide is today). Sunni Islam is the larger branch world wide, but Shia Islam is big in several countries in the Middle East. Of particular importance, Shia Islam is the religion of Iran, a majority in Iraq, and the government (but not the majority) in Syria.

Conflicts between the groups have been widespread throughout history and increasing lately. Al Qaeda is a Sunni group, Hezbollah is the Iranian backed Shiite group operating out of Lebanon. While the media often lumps these together as Islamic terrorist groups, the distinction is very important. You currently have conflict in several countries with violence occurring along Sunni/Shia lines.



Above map found at: http://war-in-middle-east.blogspot.com/2...-east.html

Syria

President Bashar al-Assad is part of the Alawite ethnic group which is mostly Shia. Al-Assad is determined to remain in power in Syria and has used chemical weapons against the population to preserve his position. There are both moderate rebel groups and the extremist Islamic Sunni group, The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (a couple different translations for this I’ve seen, but we’ll stick to this one, or ISIS for short), which was an off shoot of Al Qaeda, but has since broken off. With the failure of the moderate groups, the extreme ISIS is increasingly becoming the central rebellion group and the lines of the civil war follow largely along the Alawites vs. the majority Sunni population.

From outside the region, Russia has aided President Bashar al-Assad considerably which is a big reason he is in power still. The West meanwhile has been reluctant to get heavily involved (the refusal to help the moderates, is the reason Robert Ford, the American ambassador to Syria, recently resigned).

The situation has spiraled out from this unfortunately. Syria has become a magnet for recruiting Sunni jihadist with many coming from Europe and even a few from America as well as from the Middle East (more on this below).

This has prompted a direct response from Iran, which has directed it’s Lebanon based terrorist group Hezbollah (Shia led) to support the Syrian government (and given their dependence on Iran financial support, no was not an option). Within Lebanon we have actually seen what had been secure Hezbollah areas attacked by Sunni led terrorist in turn as a result of this.

Iraq

Iraq, while a majority Shia, was led for years by Saddam Hussein, a Sunni. It had a brutal war with Iran in the 80s (in general dynamic terms, it’s last crisis war) in addition to all its smaller wars with the West and the general population is not one that is exited or wants any part of another big war. When confronting Americans, Al Queda had to import suicide bombers as even among supporters, they weren’t getting volunteers among the native population.

If you remember a few years back, there was “The Surge” by the US. This was directed at Al Qaeda backed groups and was actually quite successful. The reason for that success largely that it was able to get the support of the Sunni population which was happy to be rid of the terrorist group made up of large number of foreigners causing problems for them. That was several years ago though and since then, Iraq’s current government has been very anti-Sunni and this has led to a reversal. Many of the same people who were happy to see the Al Qaeda linked groups pushed out before are now on the side of ISIS (which has broken off from Al Qaeda and considered by many to be more extreme) .

With support in a region going through much of Syria and Iraq and with large number of jihadists coming into the region, ISIS’s power has grown considerably. They have taken Mosul (Iraq’s 2nd biggest city) and Tikrit (Saddam Hussein’s home town). Much of the Iraqi army does not seem to want to be risking their lives and we’ve seen mass abandonment in those areas despite actually outnumbering and out gunning the ISIS. In some ways that will only get worse as the ISIS has now been able to take over some left behind American equipment with the fall of Mosul and secured a great deal of financing from the city.

Where things will go from here is an open question, but we’ve already seen responses from both Iran and the Kurds in the north. Iran has sent parts of the Revolutionary Guard to defend Baghdad. While I heard radio broadcasters somewhat confused by this earlier, it makes within the framework of the widening strife between Sunni/Shia players. Iran does not want Iraq to fall to Sunni extremist group as that will put the group right on their border. The ISIS is also the exact group they are supporting the Syrian government against.

Meanwhile in the north, the Kurds, who have long had a desire for independence (or at least greater autonomy) have taken over most the areas from the Iraqi military largely leaving the entire northern part of the country without an Iraqi government presence.

Going Forward

Where things will go from here is a very open question, but even if it can’t hold what it’s taken, the ISIS has a clear area of strong influence through Syria and Iraq. Further, the rising and escalating violence between Sunnis and Shiites is worrying to say the least. We’ve now seen separate, country specific issues spiral out to become larger regional issues. These are spread even beyond the confines of this post and countries like Saudi Arabia have shown they are very concerned with Iran.

Beyond the long term geopolitical concerns though are also the Western domestic concerns. Large numbers of migrants have made their way to Europe (and to a lesser degree the United States) over the past few decades. In this conflict in Syria, a great many have traveled to to help fight Bashar al-Assad and have been fighting through the ISIS. Given the extreme radicalism of the group, several western countries are very concerned with those coming back. They won’t have the language/customs barriers of many previous terrorists, but will have spent a great deal of time in a group that actively sponsors terrorism.

i like csnbbs because they have such a friendly attitude towards bloggers.

both the spin room and sports forums have a number of bloggers in each one. makes for a lot of good discussion from time to time, because people either:

1. know what they are actually talking about
2. or they are full of sh!t but at the very least care deeply about the topic at hand and put a lot of time into it.

The thing you have to understand about the Middle East is that the differences aren't just religion, they're also ethinic, and the the two differences don't break along exactly the same lines.

Jews and Arabs are, of course, both Semitic. Iranians are non-Semitic Aryans. Iran actually means, roughly, "empire of the Aryan people" in Farsi. The name was changed in the 1930s, basically as an appeal to Hitler, "Hey, we're Aryan too, so send us some tanks and airplanes and we'll meet you at the Bosporus." Hitler declined, but the Iranians clearly would like to restore the ancient Persian empire, and that strikes fear in the heart of every Arab leader.

Kurds, Palestinians (Philistines) and Lebanese (Phoenicians) are a bit more complicated. The DNA projects are returning some interesting patterns. All three are probably some mix of Semitic and Indo-European (Aryan). With regard to the latter two, there was an interesting program on the History Channel some years back (have never seen it rerun, which is pretty amazing for HC). It seems that geology suggests that there was an island in the Mediterranean that blew up and disappeared in a Krakatoa-style explosion some time around 1300 BC. Atlantis perhaps? The timing is close to the date that many scholars suggest for the Jewish Exodus (although timing of the Exodus is widely debated), and there was speculation in the program that the aftermath of the volcanic explosion could have caused some of the Biblical plagues. Pretty much immediately thereafter, there appeared along the northern coast of Egypt the "boat people" who conducted Viking-style raids until Rameses drove them off to the east. These people are believed to have been Aryan, and perhaps the survivors of that volcanic explosion. They may have settled along the coast of what is now Gaza and Lebanon, intermarried with the local Semitic Canaanite population, and become the Philistines (to the south) and Phoenicians (to the north). The seafaring tradition fits, among other things. A lot of the Aryan/Semitic mix reprinted by Lebanese and Palestinians could also have come from intermarriage with the Crusaders a couple of millennia later. The Christian Lebanese and Palestinians show more DNA compatibility with Europe, which that would support. Those are just some theories, nobody knows for sure, but it is interesting to ponder.

In any event, throw in "my brother and I will fight my cousin, my cousin and I will fight the world," and consider that Isaac and Ishmael were brothers and also that the Iranian dream of re-establishing an Aryan empire east of the Bosporus still lives at least in the name Iran, and you have the makings for some very strange alliances.

(06-13-2014 02:31 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The thing you have to understand about the Middle East is that the differences aren't just religion, they're also ethinic, and the the two differences don't break along exactly the same lines.

My comment was going to be that religious divides aren't important (except on the fringe where al Qaeda views Shiites as apostates). Tribal divides at one level or another are everything, and religion is just one criterion upon which those tribal boundaries fall. Money and mutual self-interest will trump those divides, as you see the Muslim Brotherhood derived Hamas as a client of Shiite Iran, as one instance.

(06-13-2014 03:12 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(06-13-2014 02:31 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The thing you have to understand about the Middle East is that the differences aren't just religion, they're also ethinic, and the the two differences don't break along exactly the same lines.

My comment was going to be that religious divides aren't important (except on the fringe where al Qaeda views Shiites as apostates). Tribal divides at one level or another are everything, and religion is just one criterion upon which those tribal boundaries fall. Money and mutual self-interest will trump those divides, as you see the Muslim Brotherhood derived Hamas as a client of Shiite Iran, as one instance.

It gets really crazy when you figure in the tribal aspects. Today, Abdul and I try to kill Rashid. Tomorrow, Rashid and I will try to kill Abdul. Next week, Rashid, Abdul, and I will unite to kill the Aryan. Week after that, Rashid and Abdul will try to kill me. It all makes sense on some level, but it's impossible for western thinking to grasp it.

(06-13-2014 03:24 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(06-13-2014 03:12 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(06-13-2014 02:31 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The thing you have to understand about the Middle East is that the differences aren't just religion, they're also ethinic, and the the two differences don't break along exactly the same lines.

My comment was going to be that religious divides aren't important (except on the fringe where al Qaeda views Shiites as apostates). Tribal divides at one level or another are everything, and religion is just one criterion upon which those tribal boundaries fall. Money and mutual self-interest will trump those divides, as you see the Muslim Brotherhood derived Hamas as a client of Shiite Iran, as one instance.

It gets really crazy when you figure in the tribal aspects. Today, Abdul and I try to kill Rashid. Tomorrow, Rashid and I will try to kill Abdul. Next week, Rashid, Abdul, and I will unite to kill the Aryan. Week after that, Rashid and Abdul will try to kill me. It all makes sense on some level, but it's impossible for western thinking to grasp it.

It's collectivism and gang warfare writ large. I can't imagine Turkey was immune to it, but centuries of the Ottoman empire (and the ideal in the Muslim world is the pan-Islamic governance/empire) brought it to more of a national way of thinking. The fringes of the Ottoman Empire are still escaping the Ottoman legacy, and tribalism was never broken there.

Many years ago, when I was first dipping my toes into the Middle East, an old experienced hand explained to me the difference between Shia and Sunni this way--think of Shia as Roman Catholics and Sunni as evangelicals (IIRC, he used Baptist back then, but today we might say Bible Church). That's an analogy, and analogies are never perfect, but it does neatly express a lot of the differences.

Isaac and Ishmael were half brothers. One was the son of Hagar, who was Egyptian and Isaac the son of Sarah, Abraham was the father of both. Probably one of the reason that there is so much enmity between those two groups is that the Muslim (descendants of Ishmael) feel that there patrimony was stolen by Isaac who was the second son. In Jewish beliefs the first son is the inheritor of all that the father owns. But this wasn't what happened. If Sarah hadn't been obstinate in having her handmaiden Hagar impregnated by Abraham we wouldn't have this mess right now. She couldn't wait for God to right her problems she tried to fix them herself as we sometimes do without God's blessing.

This son Ishmael was the bastard child of Abraham. A little bit of explanation:
8 And He said, "Hagar, Sarai's maid, where have you come from, and where are you going?" She said, "I am fleeing from the presence of my mistress Sarai." 9 The Angel of the Lord said to her, "Return to your mistress, and submit yourself under her hand." 10 Then the Angel of the Lord said to her, "I will multiply your descendants exceedingly, so that they shall not be counted for multitude." 11 And the Angel of the Lord said to her: "Behold, you are with child, And you shall bear a son. You shall call his name Ishmael, Because the Lord has heard your affliction. 12 He shall be a wild man; His hand shall be against every man, And every man's hand against him. And he shall dwell in the presence of all his brethren." Genesis 16:8-12

Prophesy again proved true as these two half-brothers have been at their throat from the very beginning.