Here are my ACC Football predictions based on 2013 EOY power ratings*

Atlantic Division
Florida State 12-0 (8-0)
Clemson 10-2 or 11-1 (7-1)
Louisville 9-3 (6-2)
Wake Forest 6-6 (3-5)
Boston College 6-6 (3-5)
Syracuse 4-8 or 5-7 (1-7 or 2-6)
NC State 3-9 (0-8)

Coastal Division
Duke between 8-4 and 11-1 (from 4-4 to 7-1)
Pitt 7-5 or 8-4 (4-4 or 5-3)*
UNC 7-5 (4-4)
Ga Tech 7-5 (4-4)
Va Tech 7-5 (4-4)
Miami 6-6 or 7-5 (3-5 or 4-4)
UVa 2-10 (0-8)

Championship Game:
Florida State over Duke

FSU goes to CFP
Clemson or Duke goes to Orange Bowl (not sure if ACC CG loser gets this automatically or not; if it's Duke, Clemson has a good shot at Peach Bowl IMO).

* obviously teams change from year to year, and a change of just a few points worth of power rating could have significant impact on these results. For example, I have Syracuse losing 3 games by 4 points or less, so an improvement of 5 points would result in 3 more wins.

If you want to see how the individual games worked out, click here.

Our QB is playing at another level...I'm thinking closer to 8 wins. Mark thanks for your blog...I enjoy it.

I'd be very surprised if FSU went undefeated again. Historically, it just doesn't happen very often.

Still like the chances of getting to the playoff though.

(05-06-2014 08:54 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  Our QB is playing at another level...I'm thinking closer to 8 wins. Mark thanks for your blog...I enjoy it.

I could see 7-5 if the Orange are TRULY better by about 5 points per game (offense + defense). However, I think your team will still lose to Notre Dame, Florida St, Clemson, and at Pittsburgh. That means you have to win the following close games: Louisville @home, Duke @home, and Wake Forest and Boston College on the road. Bear in mind that those teams are all counting on beating Syracuse as well.

(05-06-2014 09:01 AM)fsugrad99 Wrote:  I'd be very surprised if FSU went undefeated again. Historically, it just doesn't happen very often.

Still like the chances of getting to the playoff though.

Barring some huge improvements by your opponents (or a big drop off by the Noles) the only games where the other team has a chance to win are probably Oklahoma State, @Louisville, and maybe Clemson and @Miami. Honestly I see FSU winning all of those by double digits.

The only teams in the country that might be favored (@home) over FSU would be Auburn, Alabama, Oklahoma, Michigan St, Stanford, UCLA and Oregon (and maybe a couple more Big Ten teams). Nobody would be favored to win in Tallahassee.

Check your numbers. You have UNC at 7-5 (4-4) in the summary, but in the game by game detail you have them at 8-4 (5-3).

If they do go 7-5 Fedora will have done a good job against a tough schedule. The teams on their OOC schedule, plus their rotating Atlantic Division crossover (Clemson) had a combined record of 46-18 last year, and none of them won fewer than 8 games.

(05-06-2014 09:09 AM)ken d Wrote:  Check your numbers. You have UNC at 7-5 (4-4) in the summary, but in the game by game detail you have them at 8-4 (5-3).

If they do go 7-5 Fedora will have done a good job against a tough schedule. The teams on their OOC schedule, plus their rotating Atlantic Division crossover (Clemson) had a combined record of 46-18 last year, and none of them won fewer than 8 games.

They should be better than 7-5 this season. I think they are a year away from being really good, but expect 9 wins this season.

(05-06-2014 09:02 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 08:54 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  Our QB is playing at another level...I'm thinking closer to 8 wins. Mark thanks for your blog...I enjoy it.

I could see 7-5 if the Orange are TRULY better by about 5 points per game (offense + defense). However, I think your team will still lose to Notre Dame, Florida St, Clemson, and at Pittsburgh. That means you have to win the following close games: Louisville @home, Duke @home, and Wake Forest and Boston College on the road. Bear in mind that those teams are all counting on beating Syracuse as well.

The first three yes...I count Pitt as a toss-up. Our offense from what I have heard is going to elevate to the next level. If the defense doesn't regress...I see only 4 losses...5 losses at the worst.

(05-06-2014 09:09 AM)ken d Wrote:  Check your numbers. You have UNC at 7-5 (4-4) in the summary, but in the game by game detail you have them at 8-4 (5-3).

If they do go 7-5 Fedora will have done a good job against a tough schedule. The teams on their OOC schedule, plus their rotating Atlantic Division crossover (Clemson) had a combined record of 46-18 last year, and none of them won fewer than 8 games.

I found the problem: when UNC plays Pitt, I had BOTH teams losing... intuitive? maybe, but still against the rules. UNC should be my forecast winner, which changes the Coastal Division champ as well. I'll have the update posted in a moment. Thanks for pointing out my error
__________

5/6/14 1:00 PM - it's fixed.

(05-06-2014 11:58 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 09:09 AM)ken d Wrote:  Check your numbers. You have UNC at 7-5 (4-4) in the summary, but in the game by game detail you have them at 8-4 (5-3).

If they do go 7-5 Fedora will have done a good job against a tough schedule. The teams on their OOC schedule, plus their rotating Atlantic Division crossover (Clemson) had a combined record of 46-18 last year, and none of them won fewer than 8 games.

I found the problem: when UNC plays Pitt, I had BOTH teams losing... intuitive? maybe, but still against the rules. UNC should be my forecast winner, which changes the Coastal Division champ as well. I'll have the update posted in a moment. Thanks for pointing out my error
__________


5/6/14 1:00 PM - it's fixed.

You must have watched last year's game. That's an easy mistake to make.

I think Duke may have caught lightning in a bottle last year. It will be tough to repeat. We could see another four or five way tie in the Coastal.

SportsNation Poll: What are the chances Florida State goes unbeaten this year?


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(05-06-2014 01:00 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  SportsNation Poll: What are the chances Florida State goes unbeaten this year?


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(Total votes: 3,507)

Mark,

You whiffed on the Cuse big time.
I think we are one of only 2 or 3 teams returning a qb who is head and shoulder better than last season where he really came on in the last 4 games of the season. The O-line is almost fully intact and the running game will not miss a beat, and was one of the top running back groups in the Acc last season. The defense should remain decent enough to win 9 games with the offense being really good.

(05-06-2014 02:44 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  Mark,

You whiffed on the Cuse big time.
I think we are one of only 2 or 3 teams returning a qb who is head and shoulder better than last season where he really came on in the last 4 games of the season. The O-line is almost fully intact and the running game will not miss a beat, and was one of the top running back groups in the Acc last season. The defense should remain decent enough to win 9 games with the offense being really good.

I suppose that's possible. Keep in mind though that it's now how your average compares to others, it's how you compare to ONE team on ONE day. Given that, which of these games did I whiff on?

Syracuse Win by:
@C Mich. 14.9 W
Maryland 12.5 W
Notre D. -6 L
Louisville -3.4 L
Florida St -22.3 L
@Wake F -4 L
@Clemson -18.7 L
NC State 22.1 W
Duke 0.5 ?
@Pitt. -5.3 L
@Boston C -2.4 L

(05-06-2014 03:15 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 02:44 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  Mark,

You whiffed on the Cuse big time.
I think we are one of only 2 or 3 teams returning a qb who is head and shoulder better than last season where he really came on in the last 4 games of the season. The O-line is almost fully intact and the running game will not miss a beat, and was one of the top running back groups in the Acc last season. The defense should remain decent enough to win 9 games with the offense being really good.

I suppose that's possible. Keep in mind though that it's now how your average compares to others, it's how you compare to ONE team on ONE day. Given that, which of these games did I whiff on?

Syracuse Win by:
@C Mich. 14.9 W
Maryland 12.5 W
Notre D. -6 L
Louisville -3.4 L
Florida St -22.3 L
@Wake F -4 L
@Clemson -18.7 L
NC State 22.1 W
Duke 0.5 ?
@Pitt. -5.3 L
@Boston C -2.4 L

BC, Pitt with Duke and Ville and ND being tossups.

(05-06-2014 04:00 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 03:15 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 02:44 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  Mark,

You whiffed on the Cuse big time.
I think we are one of only 2 or 3 teams returning a qb who is head and shoulder better than last season where he really came on in the last 4 games of the season. The O-line is almost fully intact and the running game will not miss a beat, and was one of the top running back groups in the Acc last season. The defense should remain decent enough to win 9 games with the offense being really good.

I suppose that's possible. Keep in mind though that it's now how your average compares to others, it's how you compare to ONE team on ONE day. Given that, which of these games did I whiff on?

Syracuse Win by:
@C Mich. 14.9 W
Maryland 12.5 W
Notre D. -6 L
Louisville -3.4 L
Florida St -22.3 L
@Wake F -4 L
@Clemson -18.7 L
NC State 22.1 W
Duke 0.5 ?
@Pitt. -5.3 L
@Boston C -2.4 L

BC, Pitt with Duke and Ville and ND being tossups.

Well, I must humbly admit that I could be wrong.
(I'm not, but I could be)

(05-06-2014 04:18 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 04:00 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 03:15 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 02:44 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  Mark,

You whiffed on the Cuse big time.
I think we are one of only 2 or 3 teams returning a qb who is head and shoulder better than last season where he really came on in the last 4 games of the season. The O-line is almost fully intact and the running game will not miss a beat, and was one of the top running back groups in the Acc last season. The defense should remain decent enough to win 9 games with the offense being really good.

I suppose that's possible. Keep in mind though that it's now how your average compares to others, it's how you compare to ONE team on ONE day. Given that, which of these games did I whiff on?

Syracuse Win by:
@C Mich. 14.9 W
Maryland 12.5 W
Notre D. -6 L
Louisville -3.4 L
Florida St -22.3 L
@Wake F -4 L
@Clemson -18.7 L
NC State 22.1 W
Duke 0.5 ?
@Pitt. -5.3 L
@Boston C -2.4 L

BC, Pitt with Duke and Ville and ND being tossups.

Well, I must humbly admit that I could be wrong.
(I'm not, but I could be)

Well its stickied. How do you like your crow, fried, baked or Fricassee?

(05-06-2014 04:30 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  ...How do you like your crow, fried, baked or Fricassee?

CuseRoc, I live in the Deep South.... deep fried, of course, and smothered with gravy! (Did you REALLY have to ask?).

Oh, and could I have some collard greens and yams with that crow, please?

(05-06-2014 05:46 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-06-2014 04:30 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  ...How do you like your crow, fried, baked or Fricassee?

CuseRoc, I live in the Deep South.... deep fried, of course, and smothered with gravy! (Did you REALLY have to ask?).

Oh, and could I have some collard greens and yams with that crow, please?

Thats what I'm talkinn bout!

PJ wouldn't survive that.

No way Duke wins again.

Posted from my Nexus 5 using the CSNbbs app.