(04-03-2014 09:20 AM)TheFIUtheproud Wrote:  

(04-03-2014 07:22 AM)ODU AGGIE Wrote:  Somebody help me out here. ODU has the second best RPI in the conference at 36. They have the No. 20 strength of schedule. They have 17 wins. They got one win from Rice in the three-game series (at Rice) but (I believe) all three went into extra innings. They just beat the projected CAA champion (W&M, which is also projected into the playoffs) by a score of 20-5 – and the Monarchs are not even in the conversation. What’s up with this?

I guess as the old saying goes, maybe the proof is in the pudding (whatever that means). So look out this weekend FIU. You may be in for a surprise when the Monarchs get to Miami, and just maybe the conversation will change a little bit.

Just want to be clear that FIU fans (and the team) are not taking ODU lightly. I'm impressed with several C-USA teams and I'm very positive about the conference's overall future. With this said, we have had very little "athletic joy" this season at FIU. So for now we will continue to think that our sh*t doesn't stink (with all due respect to Rice that hammered us and UAB that beat us 2-1). Even if reality is much different at the end of the season. Now can we just go back to being awesome in our minds without you unreasonably bringing reality into the picture?

I'm not sure my attempt at waving the flag for ODU had any concrete tie to reality. The Monarchs are playing pretty good ball, and I think they are at a point where the season could go either way. One thing appears to be certain -- one of us will likely have a new reality after this weekend.

(04-03-2014 09:51 AM)ODU AGGIE Wrote:  

(04-03-2014 09:20 AM)TheFIUtheproud Wrote:  

(04-03-2014 07:22 AM)ODU AGGIE Wrote:  Somebody help me out here. ODU has the second best RPI in the conference at 36. They have the No. 20 strength of schedule. They have 17 wins. They got one win from Rice in the three-game series (at Rice) but (I believe) all three went into extra innings. They just beat the projected CAA champion (W&M, which is also projected into the playoffs) by a score of 20-5 – and the Monarchs are not even in the conversation. What’s up with this?

I guess as the old saying goes, maybe the proof is in the pudding (whatever that means). So look out this weekend FIU. You may be in for a surprise when the Monarchs get to Miami, and just maybe the conversation will change a little bit.

Just want to be clear that FIU fans (and the team) are not taking ODU lightly. I'm impressed with several C-USA teams and I'm very positive about the conference's overall future. With this said, we have had very little "athletic joy" this season at FIU. So for now we will continue to think that our sh*t doesn't stink (with all due respect to Rice that hammered us and UAB that beat us 2-1). Even if reality is much different at the end of the season. Now can we just go back to being awesome in our minds without you unreasonably bringing reality into the picture?

I'm not sure my attempt at waving the flag for ODU had any concrete tie to reality. The Monarchs are playing pretty good ball, and I think they are at a point where the season could go either way. One thing appears to be certain -- one of us will likely have a new reality after this weekend.

Of course it had a tie to reality. You guys have played a tough schedule and are five games over .500. It should be a good series.

I believe that the USM-MTSU game will go along way in settling seeding for the tournament also. Remember, RPI had absolutely nothing to do with getting in the basketball tournament.

(04-03-2014 10:17 AM)nastybunch Wrote:  I believe that the USM-MTSU game will go along way in settling seeding for the tournament also. Remember, RPI had absolutely nothing to do with getting in the basketball tournament.

I believe RPI has a little more meaning with the baseball committee than the basketball committee. The facts may not bear that out but that's always been how I saw it.

But I totally agree in that it aint everything.

I think just about every series from here will go far in determining the seeding given the four-car pileup we have in second place with FIU and MTSU 1.5 games back.

Things will probably stay extremely tight for second place throughout the season. The difference may end up who can pull of a sweep or two instead of winning 2/3.

(04-03-2014 11:18 AM)eaglenjxn Wrote:  I believe RPI has a little more meaning with the baseball committee than the basketball committee. The facts may not bear that out but that's always been how I saw it.

Based on the last few years of post-seaon invites and regional set-ups, RPI has EVERYTHING to do with how the committee decides who plays and who doesn't.

I'll see if I can find that thread I mentioned earlier and post the RPI's versus seedings etc for years past. Very imformative.

Finally found that thread and the part I'm quoting was actually linked to another forum. These thoughts are from forum member gonegolfin. He knows his stuff.

A very interesting read:

#1 Polls are not part of the selection process.

#2 No, RPI is not the only contributing factor ... but it is the dominant one and the driving force behind the selections. The selection committee loves to use it as cover ... even though they do not understand it. Probably the next most important factor (along with conference titles from an elite conference) is W/L record vs. your peer group ... in this case, your peers would be the teams you are competing against for a national seed. This is why W/L record vs. the RPI Top 25 is important. With few games in this category, the Cajuns will get dinged for SOS. Conference championships (especially in the elite conferences) are very important ... and the conference tournaments have some weighting as well (including overall conference record). I am not going to provide an exhaustive list of the criteria now, but you get the idea.

#2b When there are exceptions to RPI being highly correlated to the awarded national seeds and #1 seeds, it is usually a West coast team due to the known RPI bias (disadvantage) against the western schools (this has happened with Oregon State in the past) ... or a team from an elite conference that finished high in the standings (Ex. 2nd in the SEC). Also, it is rare that three national seeds are awarded from the same conference. Four national seeds from the same conference is unheard of.

#3 I will be pleasantly shocked if the Cajuns are 55-5 (including Sun Belt Tournament) at selection time. I think that is too much to ask. Single digit losses will be quite the accomplishment. There are losses lurking in every conference schedule and the midweek games (especially Tuesday/Wednesday affairs) during conference play will be a test. The Cajuns have a big target on them each and every time they play. In fact, you might even see some teams attempt to reverse pitch the Cajuns (conference play) in an attempt to grab one game of a series.

#4 Let's take a look at RPI ranking at selection time vs. National Seeds ...

National Seed, Team, (RPI rank)

2013
#1 North Carolina (1) (ACC 1st place)
#2 Vanderbilt (2) (SEC 1st place)
#3 Oregon State (5) (Pac-12 1st place)
#4 LSU (4) (SEC 2nd place)
#5 Cal State-Fullerton (6) (Big West 1st place)
#6 Virginia (3) (ACC 2nd place)
#7 Florida State (8) (ACC 3rd place)
#8 Oregon (9) (Pac-12 2nd place) (See note above about West Coast schools and awarding a large # of national seeds to a single conference ... meaning no NC State)

I would say that this is a very tight correlation.

The RPI Top 8 team that was not awarded a national seed last year? #7 North Carolina State ... the 4th team from the ACC.

You certainly could have made a case for Indiana last year ... with their 43-14 record, #12 RPI ranking, and Big Ten title. But they were sent to Tallahassee for the Super Regional round.

The only team in the RPI Top 16 not to host last season was #14 Clemson. #17 Kansas State (Big 12 1st place) hosted in their place. While Clemson finished 5th in the ACC, the NCAA was not going to award (6) #1 seeds and host regionals to the ACC. Virginia Tech, though they finished a meager 15-14 in ACC play for 6th place (vs. 18-12 for Clemson), was awarded the 5th #1 seed from the ACC as they had an RPI three spots higher than Clemson (#11 vs. #14).

Now take a look at the above and tell me that RPI does not rule when it comes to the NCAA Selection Committee.

2012

#1 Florida (2) (SEC 3rd place, but 2nd in overall record)
#2 UCLA (1) (Pac-12 1st place)
#3 Florida State (3) (ACC 1st place)
#4 Baylor (4) (Big-12 1st place)
#5 Oregon (6) (Pac-12 3rd place)
#6 North Carolina (5) (ACC 2nd place)
#7 LSU (7) (SEC 1st place)
#8 South Carolina (11) (SEC 2nd place)

The Top 7 national seeds were all seeded within one place of their RPI ranking.

The RPI Top 8 team that was not awarded a national seed in 2012? #8 Purdue (43-12, 1st place Big Ten). Not from an elite conference. South Carolina finished 2nd place in the SEC and took their place.

What happened with Purdue in 2012 and Indiana in 2013 does not bode well for the Cajuns if they do not finish well within the Top 8 RPI.

The only team in the RPI Top 16 not to host last season was #16 Arizona State (T4th in Pac-12). CUSA champion #18 Rice hosted in their place.

(04-02-2014 08:15 AM)FIUFan Wrote:  

(04-01-2014 10:14 PM)FAUAEPi Wrote:  Just beat #13 Florida 5-4 in Gainesville.

Congrat's.

FIU's team ERA is now #1 in the country as Houston gave up 6 earned to TAMU last night.

Oy vey. Not looking forward to that series. If we keep playing below par, y'all are going to give us what we have coming after running the score up on your guys a couple games when y'all were down.

(04-03-2014 12:34 PM)FAUAEPi Wrote:  

(04-02-2014 08:15 AM)FIUFan Wrote:  

(04-01-2014 10:14 PM)FAUAEPi Wrote:  Just beat #13 Florida 5-4 in Gainesville.

Congrat's.

FIU's team ERA is now #1 in the country as Houston gave up 6 earned to TAMU last night.

Oy vey. Not looking forward to that series. If we keep playing below par, y'all are going to give us what we have coming after running the score up on your guys a couple games when y'all were down.

With ODU going into the series with FIU this weekend, it sound like the Monarchs should have saved some of those runs from the 20-run blowout of W&M on Wednesday!

(04-03-2014 12:01 PM)CajunFanatico Wrote:  Finally found that thread and the part I'm quoting was actually linked to another forum. These thoughts are from forum member gonegolfin. He knows his stuff.

A very interesting read:

#1 Polls are not part of the selection process.

#2 No, RPI is not the only contributing factor ... but it is the dominant one and the driving force behind the selections. The selection committee loves to use it as cover ... even though they do not understand it. Probably the next most important factor (along with conference titles from an elite conference) is W/L record vs. your peer group ... in this case, your peers would be the teams you are competing against for a national seed. This is why W/L record vs. the RPI Top 25 is important. With few games in this category, the Cajuns will get dinged for SOS. Conference championships (especially in the elite conferences) are very important ... and the conference tournaments have some weighting as well (including overall conference record). I am not going to provide an exhaustive list of the criteria now, but you get the idea.

#2b When there are exceptions to RPI being highly correlated to the awarded national seeds and #1 seeds, it is usually a West coast team due to the known RPI bias (disadvantage) against the western schools (this has happened with Oregon State in the past) ... or a team from an elite conference that finished high in the standings (Ex. 2nd in the SEC). Also, it is rare that three national seeds are awarded from the same conference. Four national seeds from the same conference is unheard of.

#3 I will be pleasantly shocked if the Cajuns are 55-5 (including Sun Belt Tournament) at selection time. I think that is too much to ask. Single digit losses will be quite the accomplishment. There are losses lurking in every conference schedule and the midweek games (especially Tuesday/Wednesday affairs) during conference play will be a test. The Cajuns have a big target on them each and every time they play. In fact, you might even see some teams attempt to reverse pitch the Cajuns (conference play) in an attempt to grab one game of a series.

#4 Let's take a look at RPI ranking at selection time vs. National Seeds ...

National Seed, Team, (RPI rank)

2013
#1 North Carolina (1) (ACC 1st place)
#2 Vanderbilt (2) (SEC 1st place)
#3 Oregon State (5) (Pac-12 1st place)
#4 LSU (4) (SEC 2nd place)
#5 Cal State-Fullerton (6) (Big West 1st place)
#6 Virginia (3) (ACC 2nd place)
#7 Florida State (8) (ACC 3rd place)
#8 Oregon (9) (Pac-12 2nd place) (See note above about West Coast schools and awarding a large # of national seeds to a single conference ... meaning no NC State)

I would say that this is a very tight correlation.

The RPI Top 8 team that was not awarded a national seed last year? #7 North Carolina State ... the 4th team from the ACC.

You certainly could have made a case for Indiana last year ... with their 43-14 record, #12 RPI ranking, and Big Ten title. But they were sent to Tallahassee for the Super Regional round.

The only team in the RPI Top 16 not to host last season was #14 Clemson. #17 Kansas State (Big 12 1st place) hosted in their place. While Clemson finished 5th in the ACC, the NCAA was not going to award (6) #1 seeds and host regionals to the ACC. Virginia Tech, though they finished a meager 15-14 in ACC play for 6th place (vs. 18-12 for Clemson), was awarded the 5th #1 seed from the ACC as they had an RPI three spots higher than Clemson (#11 vs. #14).

Now take a look at the above and tell me that RPI does not rule when it comes to the NCAA Selection Committee.

2012

#1 Florida (2) (SEC 3rd place, but 2nd in overall record)
#2 UCLA (1) (Pac-12 1st place)
#3 Florida State (3) (ACC 1st place)
#4 Baylor (4) (Big-12 1st place)
#5 Oregon (6) (Pac-12 3rd place)
#6 North Carolina (5) (ACC 2nd place)
#7 LSU (7) (SEC 1st place)
#8 South Carolina (11) (SEC 2nd place)

The Top 7 national seeds were all seeded within one place of their RPI ranking.

The RPI Top 8 team that was not awarded a national seed in 2012? #8 Purdue (43-12, 1st place Big Ten). Not from an elite conference. South Carolina finished 2nd place in the SEC and took their place.

What happened with Purdue in 2012 and Indiana in 2013 does not bode well for the Cajuns if they do not finish well within the Top 8 RPI.

The only team in the RPI Top 16 not to host last season was #16 Arizona State (T4th in Pac-12). CUSA champion #18 Rice hosted in their place.

Great stuff, Cajun.

I'd attribute that to a few things.

-Lack of scrutiny: Let's face it, the media isn't picking apart the baseball committee's decisions.

-Accuracy of the RPI: As I was pointing out earlier, there are so many games that the RPI for baseball is remarkably stable. The Big South has been pretty clever throughout the years with their scheduling and found a way to work the RPI in order to get a lot of teams in the 20-40 range. Generally speaking, though, I do think that the RPI is extremely accurate at the top by season's end.

-Indiana: I agreed with the decision. There are going to be some teams with fantastic resumes that don't get a national seed. It was unfortunate but how many times have we seen a Northern team that did not deserve to host get a Regional?

-Regarding ULL: It is possible but there's little room for error to get a national seed. I think that's probably how it should be, though, given your schedule. That's not to say that your schedule is weak--just not what the other teams in contention for a national seed have to play. I know you guys have a good enough squad to take care of business, though.

(04-04-2014 08:43 AM)eaglenjxn Wrote:  -Regarding ULL: It is possible but there's little room for error to get a national seed. I think that's probably how it should be, though, given your schedule. That's not to say that your schedule is weak--just not what the other teams in contention for a national seed have to play. I know you guys have a good enough squad to take care of business, though.

I (as well as most Cajun fans probably) agree with you here. It's not that our schedule is especially weak, it's just that it's not nearly as tough as some of the other guys at the top have to play.

Thanks for the compliment on the squad, they're a tough bunch.

(04-04-2014 10:30 AM)CajunFanatico Wrote:  I (as well as most Cajun fans probably) agree with you here. It's not that our schedule is especially weak, it's just that it's not nearly as tough as some of the other guys at the top have to play.

Thanks for the compliment on the squad, they're a tough bunch.

Just like in all other sports, it boils down to the strength of the conference. The top conferences consolidate their strong RPI's every time they play each other, the system is designed to work against the G5 conferences. For example, we had 4 programs with 13-3 conference records in hoops with 20+ wins in a 16 team conference with a conference RPI rank of 13 (well within the top half of the 33 total conferences) and only managed one bid.

Clearly a stacked deck we're up against here.

(04-04-2014 01:31 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  

(04-04-2014 10:30 AM)CajunFanatico Wrote:  I (as well as most Cajun fans probably) agree with you here. It's not that our schedule is especially weak, it's just that it's not nearly as tough as some of the other guys at the top have to play.

Thanks for the compliment on the squad, they're a tough bunch.

Just like in all other sports, it boils down to the strength of the conference. The top conferences consolidate their strong RPI's every time they play each other, the system is designed to work against the G5 conferences. For example, we had 4 programs with 13-3 conference records in hoops with 20+ wins in a 16 team conference with a conference RPI rank of 13 (well within the top half of the 33 total conferences) and only managed one bid.

Clearly a stacked deck we're up against here.

It was a cryin' shame that both USM and LaTech didn't go to the NCAA playoffs. I've not looked at MTSU's schedule in quite a while so I can't really express an opinion on them. But both USM and LaTech were rock-solid programs this year and I believe each would have had better than 50/50 odds to advance in the tournament. Not too many years ago, this year's CUSA field would have had at least 2 teams, possibly 3 in that tournament.

The P5's have almost completely boxed us out on the football front and are slowly but surely working in that direction in both basketball and baseball. It sucks.