Question was asked is there a non power conference team you could see making one of the four playoff slots? Answer given by CBSsport Bruce Feldman Senior College Football Columnist. See 4th question

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Does the AAC get a trophy for preseason predicitions now?

I think the thing is, he was asked if there was a possible sleeper. I think given the answer, it's not likely at all of course.

I think it's really amazing how far the MWC has fallen in the last 1-2 years. You could have made the case 2 years ago that they had surpassed the Big East. Now, they are an afterthought, and Peterson is gone from Boise. And the AAC has I think pretty clearly passed them back up. I think Feldman's answer is more of a reflection of that than anything else.

I think for a P5 to make it they are going to have to not just run the table the year they are selected, they have to come into that season on a roll.

When Boise cracked the BCS they had gone 73-16 the 7 years prior and had double digit wins 5 of the previous seven seasons.

When Utah first cracked into the BCS at 12-0, they had gone 10-2 the year before and that year before beat Cal and Oregon and lost to TAMU by 2 in College Station.

I think cracking the top 4 of the selection committee is going to be hard no matter what but if you don't win at least 10 the year before, it may be impossible unless you have some amazing non-conference wins.

With two FCS opponents, one new to FBS opponent, and no P5 opponents, I'd be stunned if the committee would put an undefeated Houston in the top four.

(03-25-2014 10:35 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  With two FCS opponents, one new to FBS opponent, and no P5 opponents, I'd be stunned if the committee would put an undefeated Houston in the top four.

Yikes, that non-conference schedule is even softer than Marshall's.

(03-25-2014 10:35 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think for a P5 to make it they are going to have to not just run the table the year they are selected, they have to come into that season on a roll.

When Boise cracked the BCS they had gone 73-16 the 7 years prior and had double digit wins 5 of the previous seven seasons.

When Utah first cracked into the BCS at 12-0, they had gone 10-2 the year before and that year before beat Cal and Oregon and lost to TAMU by 2 in College Station.

I think cracking the top 4 of the selection committee is going to be hard no matter what but if you don't win at least 10 the year before, it may be impossible unless you have some amazing non-conference wins.

With two FCS opponents, one new to FBS opponent, and no P5 opponents, I'd be stunned if the committee would put an undefeated Houston in the top four.

The wild card is parity in the P5 where the P5 champs all have multiple losses (perhaps even 3 losses). That could open a path for an undefeated G5 school. That said, I'd say you are right. In most cases it will require a multi-year effort for any G5 school to gain the cred needed to make the top 4.

(03-25-2014 11:08 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-25-2014 10:35 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think for a P5 to make it they are going to have to not just run the table the year they are selected, they have to come into that season on a roll.

When Boise cracked the BCS they had gone 73-16 the 7 years prior and had double digit wins 5 of the previous seven seasons.

When Utah first cracked into the BCS at 12-0, they had gone 10-2 the year before and that year before beat Cal and Oregon and lost to TAMU by 2 in College Station.

I think cracking the top 4 of the selection committee is going to be hard no matter what but if you don't win at least 10 the year before, it may be impossible unless you have some amazing non-conference wins.

With two FCS opponents, one new to FBS opponent, and no P5 opponents, I'd be stunned if the committee would put an undefeated Houston in the top four.

The wild card is parity in the P5 where the P5 champs all have multiple losses (perhaps even 3 losses). That could open a path for an undefeated G5 school. That said, I'd say you are right. In most cases it will require a multi-year effort for any G5 school to gain the cred needed to make the top 4.

Basically 1984 BYU. They ran the table. Washington had one loss stumbling at USC. Florida was on probation but started the year with a tie and a loss. Nebraska had two losses. BC had two losses. OU had a loss and a tie and everyone else had two losses.

Interestingly (to me) that was third season after I-A was cut to 105 teams. The 8 years after the cut, there were only four teams to finish a season unblemished.

A team that might have had a shot would have been 2003 NIU. They beat Maryland, Alabama, and Iowa State but then they fell twice in MAC play.

(03-25-2014 11:31 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(03-25-2014 11:08 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-25-2014 10:35 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think for a P5 to make it they are going to have to not just run the table the year they are selected, they have to come into that season on a roll.

When Boise cracked the BCS they had gone 73-16 the 7 years prior and had double digit wins 5 of the previous seven seasons.

When Utah first cracked into the BCS at 12-0, they had gone 10-2 the year before and that year before beat Cal and Oregon and lost to TAMU by 2 in College Station.

I think cracking the top 4 of the selection committee is going to be hard no matter what but if you don't win at least 10 the year before, it may be impossible unless you have some amazing non-conference wins.

With two FCS opponents, one new to FBS opponent, and no P5 opponents, I'd be stunned if the committee would put an undefeated Houston in the top four.

The wild card is parity in the P5 where the P5 champs all have multiple losses (perhaps even 3 losses). That could open a path for an undefeated G5 school. That said, I'd say you are right. In most cases it will require a multi-year effort for any G5 school to gain the cred needed to make the top 4.

Basically 1984 BYU. They ran the table. Washington had one loss stumbling at USC. Florida was on probation but started the year with a tie and a loss. Nebraska had two losses. BC had two losses. OU had a loss and a tie and everyone else had two losses.

Interestingly (to me) that was third season after I-A was cut to 105 teams. The 8 years after the cut, there were only four teams to finish a season unblemished.

A team that might have had a shot would have been 2003 NIU. They beat Maryland, Alabama, and Iowa State but then they fell twice in MAC play.

2001 Fresno as well with wins over Wisconsin, Colorado & Oregon State. But they had a couple of conference stumbles too.

(03-25-2014 11:40 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  

(03-25-2014 11:31 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(03-25-2014 11:08 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-25-2014 10:35 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think for a P5 to make it they are going to have to not just run the table the year they are selected, they have to come into that season on a roll.

When Boise cracked the BCS they had gone 73-16 the 7 years prior and had double digit wins 5 of the previous seven seasons.

When Utah first cracked into the BCS at 12-0, they had gone 10-2 the year before and that year before beat Cal and Oregon and lost to TAMU by 2 in College Station.

I think cracking the top 4 of the selection committee is going to be hard no matter what but if you don't win at least 10 the year before, it may be impossible unless you have some amazing non-conference wins.

With two FCS opponents, one new to FBS opponent, and no P5 opponents, I'd be stunned if the committee would put an undefeated Houston in the top four.

The wild card is parity in the P5 where the P5 champs all have multiple losses (perhaps even 3 losses). That could open a path for an undefeated G5 school. That said, I'd say you are right. In most cases it will require a multi-year effort for any G5 school to gain the cred needed to make the top 4.

Basically 1984 BYU. They ran the table. Washington had one loss stumbling at USC. Florida was on probation but started the year with a tie and a loss. Nebraska had two losses. BC had two losses. OU had a loss and a tie and everyone else had two losses.

Interestingly (to me) that was third season after I-A was cut to 105 teams. The 8 years after the cut, there were only four teams to finish a season unblemished.

A team that might have had a shot would have been 2003 NIU. They beat Maryland, Alabama, and Iowa State but then they fell twice in MAC play.

2001 Fresno as well with wins over Wisconsin, Colorado & Oregon State. But they had a couple of conference stumbles too.

Fresno in 2014 would have a shot if they go 13-0, because their non-con schedule includes Nebraska, Utah, and USC. That's a very big "if", obviously.

2001 would have been an interesting discussion. Miami was the only real lock. Oregon was likely in. Tough calls for the other two with Florida, Tennessee & Nebraska all losing late in the season. 2 loss Colorado was the Big 12 champ and 3 loss LSU was SEC champ.

(03-25-2014 12:34 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  2001 would have been an interesting discussion. Miami was the only real lock. Oregon was likely in. Tough calls for the other two with Florida, Tennessee & Nebraska all losing late in the season. 2 loss Colorado was the Big 12 champ and 3 loss LSU was SEC champ.

As it played, Miami, Oregon, and Colorado would all have been locks. The 4th would have been very interesting to see. Probably Nebraska, but tough to tell.

Now, if it was like today, Oregon/Colorado would have been the Pac 12 title game.

(03-25-2014 10:35 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think for a P5 to make it they are going to have to not just run the table the year they are selected, they have to come into that season on a roll.

Perhaps for a Go5, but I would think that a champion from one of the P5 (Power Five) conferences have a chance to go to the CFP without necessarily running the table, and if they run the table, they wouldn't necessarily need to have been favored coming into the season.

I think any P5 team that goes undefeated will be in the playoff. Pretty much without exception.

(03-25-2014 12:43 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-25-2014 10:35 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think for a P5 to make it they are going to have to not just run the table the year they are selected, they have to come into that season on a roll.

Perhaps for a Go5, but I would think that a champion from one of the P5 (Power Five) conferences have a chance to go to the CFP without necessarily running the table, and if they run the table, they wouldn't necessarily need to have been favored coming into the season.

There is no question one loss P5 teams will make the field, right year... maybe a two loss, but the thread is about G5 busting the field and that will generally require having played well enough the year before to turn heads to be on radar early enough.

(03-25-2014 12:39 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-25-2014 12:34 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  2001 would have been an interesting discussion. Miami was the only real lock. Oregon was likely in. Tough calls for the other two with Florida, Tennessee & Nebraska all losing late in the season. 2 loss Colorado was the Big 12 champ and 3 loss LSU was SEC champ.

As it played, Miami, Oregon, and Colorado would all have been locks. The 4th would have been very interesting to see. Probably Nebraska, but tough to tell.

Now, if it was like today, Oregon/Colorado would have been the Pac 12 title game.

Was a tough year to predict #4. Texas might even have gotten it. They had beaten CU 41-7 earlier in the year and was in the #2 spot before losing to CU 39-37 in the ccg.

(03-25-2014 10:35 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think for a P5 to make it they are going to have to not just run the table the year they are selected, they have to come into that season on a roll.

When Boise cracked the BCS they had gone 73-16 the 7 years prior and had double digit wins 5 of the previous seven seasons.

When Utah first cracked into the BCS at 12-0, they had gone 10-2 the year before and that year before beat Cal and Oregon and lost to TAMU by 2 in College Station.

I think cracking the top 4 of the selection committee is going to be hard no matter what but if you don't win at least 10 the year before, it may be impossible unless you have some amazing non-conference wins.

With two FCS opponents, one new to FBS opponent, and no P5 opponents, I'd be stunned if the committee would put an undefeated Houston in the top four.

This is one reason the AAC has a temporary advantage over the other G5 conferences. The only G5 schools that have anything resembling a "roll" over the past 3-4 years are UC, Houston, UCF, ECU, NIU, Boise, Utah State, and Fresno. A few others might get looks if they have great seasons (UConn, USF, Ohio U, Toledo, Ball State), but only with a tough OOC schedule.

By the way, Cincinnati plays at Ohio State and at Miami (FL) next year. We return a veteran team behind Gunner Kiel, a 5-star QB who was ranked the top QB recruit in the country 3 years ago (he transfered from Notre Dame after Golson was picked to start).

I'm not saying we'll go undefeated next year. But if we do run the table, I'd be surprised if they don't pick us for the playoff.

(03-25-2014 10:48 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(03-25-2014 10:35 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  With two FCS opponents, one new to FBS opponent, and no P5 opponents, I'd be stunned if the committee would put an undefeated Houston in the top four.

Yikes, that non-conference schedule is even softer than Marshall's.

We hate the two FCS opponents... But confident this won't repeat itself...

(03-25-2014 04:57 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  

(03-25-2014 10:48 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(03-25-2014 10:35 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  With two FCS opponents, one new to FBS opponent, and no P5 opponents, I'd be stunned if the committee would put an undefeated Houston in the top four.

Yikes, that non-conference schedule is even softer than Marshall's.

We hate the two FCS opponents... But confident this won't repeat itself...

I'm assuming either you had a non-conference game contracted that became a conference game or a late cancellation. That's the usual cause for that sort of thing.

AAC haves some pretty impressive strength of schedule OOC opponents, Oklahoma, UCLA, Ole Miss, Penn State, Ohio State. Missouri, South Carolina, BYU, Vanderbilt, Boise, hypothetically and its a stretch I know, if the AAC defeats all their OOC or say win 75-90% (defeat OU, UCLA, Ohio State, Missouri, South Carolina etc.) then the team in the AAC that runs the table in the AAC may have better than dead mans chance to get in the CFP.

That won happen though.