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I chose to start a new thread rather than have this buried in the storm thread. I spotted an article just now with many excellent weather sources linked, and I found it very informative and useful.

You might too. http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/ar...picks=true

James Spann's mea culpa:

http://www.birminghamwx.com/?p=78584

Good stuff in both links!

I'm still wrapping my head around this situation. I lived in Bham 7 years, and it snowed nearly every year while I was there. Sometimes there was enough snow for significant accumulation. What caused this armageddon event? It Just seems so drastic compared to what actually happened in terms of snow/ice. Was the city just not prepared enough to salt and sand the roads? Someone explain this to me.

Read Spann's link above.

The snow accumulated further north than expected, combined with the already freezing temperatures caused the roads to have issues almost immediately.

Combined with the fact that everyone was caught off guard, you have a ton of people stuck on the roads & kids stuck in schools.

There were a couple of places in Morris that could have used some sand which would have made things a lot better. One was to the road leading to the elementary school.

(01-29-2014 11:15 AM)The Answer UAB Wrote:  I'm still wrapping my head around this situation. I lived in Bham 7 years, and it snowed nearly every year while I was there. Sometimes there was enough snow for significant accumulation. What caused this armageddon event? It Just seems so drastic compared to what actually happened in terms of snow/ice. Was the city just not prepared enough to salt and sand the roads? Someone explain this to me.

Basically, it never got much above 20 degrees yesterday, they were forecasting the low 30's. The snow accumulated on the roads and melted and refroze almost immediately which left a layer of ice underneath the remaining snow that fell. By the time the snow started falling it was too late for people to get home because of the ice.

The last good storm we had was in 1993. 21 years ago. Ever since then people have been expecting it again. It has not happened and most people started to ignore snow forecasts. I bought milk and bread Monday but it was because we were out of food at my house not because of snow.

The northernmost part of the snow should have been Montgomery according to the weather forecasts and it shifted really far north. Every news report had the same data and said the same thing. Most people went to work that morning not expecting more than a light dusting which is driveble. It got bad that morning around my house ~Mccalla at like 10ish? and no one could get home.

The emergency responders and sand/salt trucks were not activated until after the snow got bad and by then it was too late to get the roads prepped. By then, they couldn't get out on the road anyway from the traffic caused by people rushing to get home from work. I still have 2 inches of snow on the road outside my house. I can't get out of my neighborhood yet. I assume that is true for everyone in the county.

Usually snow falls and we get back above the melting point of water by the next day and the sun does all the work for us. It hasn't yet and the roads are still littered with cars in ditches.

We now just have to play the waiting game on the heat to get back above 32 degrees.

(01-29-2014 11:15 AM)The Answer UAB Wrote:  I'm still wrapping my head around this situation. I lived in Bham 7 years, and it snowed nearly every year while I was there. Sometimes there was enough snow for significant accumulation. What caused this armageddon event? It Just seems so drastic compared to what actually happened in terms of snow/ice. Was the city just not prepared enough to salt and sand the roads? Someone explain this to me.

IMHO the following items were the factors. The forecasts didn't adequately capture the amount of snow, because the forecast models didn't either. So decision makers didn't know how bad the situation was really going to be, so their decisions were bad. Timing was an issue. Bad forecasts or not, had it started snowing overnight a lot of people would have chose to stay home, and school officials would not have opened schools.

The month of Jaunuary has been quite cold here in Birmingham. Soil temperatures and road temperatures were quite cold. This made roads vulnerable to any ice or snow that fell. The forecast models had a high of 32-34 for yesterday. Birmingham hovered around 20 all day during the snow. Usually our snowstorms happen with temperatures around 30 and warmer roads. It's usually the exposed bridges and overpasses that cause problems.

Then when it started snowing in the BHM metro, around 10 AM, most everybody headed home (or to schools to pick up kids) and the roads were congested with cars in extremely slippery conditions.

It was a combination of events, not just one factor. It was a domino effect. It was the perfect storm.

And the same damn thing happened in Atlanta, on a much larger scale.

James Spann tweeted this at 10 a.m. yesterday:

Quote:Significant snow/sleet band over the southern half of Alabama. Just a dusting for northern counties. #alwx pic.twitter.com/VKHadtTMDU

He then had this exchange with another user on Twitter:

Quote:Will the roads be a problem anywhere in sumiton to oak grove? @spann
Spann's response: No.

Then, as you read in his blog above, he got in his car and headed to Tuscaloosa to speak at an elementary school, only to get caught in the mess himself.

Clearly, even Birmingham's weather god had no idea this was coming. As befitting the weather god, he also said in his mea culpa it was his first mistake since he was 26 years old. What an ego.

Tuesday January 28, 2014
Forecaster: James Spann

SNOW DAY: Arctic cold, snow, and some ice will headline our forecast for Alabama today. The most significant issues with snow will come over the southern half of the state, where a winter storm warning is in effect. Here are the important points…

***
*ALL of Alabama will be very cold. The northern quarter of the state, north of U.S. 278, won’t get out of the 20s. The high for Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden will be only in the low to mid 30s.

*Snow will begin tomorrow morning over North Alabama, but it will be light. There is a good chance you will see snow in Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden, but it should be light, and significant accumulation is not expected. No major travel issues are expected in these areas despite the snow.

*The chance of accumulating snow begins generally along and south of a line from Livingston to Eutaw to Greensboro to Centreville to Alabaster to Talladega to Ranburne. Some light accumulation is possible (1 inch of less) in the counties under a Winter Weather Advisory. These counties are Sumter, Greene, Hale, Bibb, Shelby, Talladega, Clay, Randolph, Perry, Chilton, and Coosa. Some minor travel issues are possible, if you live or travel in these counties, we don’t expect widespread road problems, but icy spots are very possible.

*The major snow/ice threat is along and south of U.S. 80, or south of a line from Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery to Opelika. Some communities over South Alabama could see 2 to 4 inches of snow. The heavier snow will come across South Alabama from around 12:00 noon tomorrow through 10:00 p.m.

*Near the coast, the precipitation will begin in places like Mobile, Gulf Shores, and Pensacola as rain and sleet. This will change to freezing rain tomorrow evening, and snow tomorrow night. Mobile and Pensacola could see around one inch of snow, but freezing rain and ice is the bigger threat for these coastal cities.

*Travel will be greatly impacted across the southern half of Alabama. Bridges and overpasses will be icy and dangerous, and some black top roads will become slick as well where heavier snow falls. The I-10 Bayway between Mobile and Spanish Fort will become very icy tomorrow night.

Governor Robert Bentley has declared Alabama in a “state of emergency” beginning tomorrow at 6:00 a.m. National Guard units are on standby to help if needed, and ALDOT crews are ready to work on roads.

We stress the biggest snow/ice problems will come over the southern half of Alabama tomorrow, but some snow is likely up through North/Central Alabama. It just won’t be too heavy and significant accumulation is not expected other than a dusting.

Skill in forecasting winter weather events in South Alabama is not especially high simply because we don’t have much experience and too many analogs. Be ready for some surprises, and stay tuned for updates…

"Be ready for some surprises, and stay tuned for updates..."

Most accurate words he wrote. He's gonna be catching hell for this one for years to come. Unfortunately, it's his job to make pretty specific predictions about something that can be very unpredictable, as we've seen.

(01-29-2014 12:49 PM)UAB Band Dad Wrote:  "Be ready for some surprises, and stay tuned for updates..."

Most accurate words he wrote. He's gonna be catching hell for this one for years to come. Unfortunately, it's his job to make pretty specific predictions about something that can be very unpredictable, as we've seen.

Bingo, and if you don't have thick skin, and you have an issue with taking flak when you miss a forecast, being a TV weather guy is probably not a good career path for you. People like me will get pissed about things like this weather event that we know nothing about.

People (maybe Spann himself) are giving Mr. Spann way too much credit for predicting the weather. He, like every other weatherman, has to rely on computer models built by other people and information from national sources. His own personal intuition can only effect the information and formulation he is fed so much.

I feel like Spann was a little more self-deprecating than people here have given him credit for. This is splitting hairs, but he said this missed forecast was the worst since 1982, not the only one he missed. Can anyone remember a more blown forecast since then? This one really wasn't that far off even, as detailed here:

http://apr.org/post/alabamas-snow-foreca...went-wrong

The margin for error is exponentially smaller for snow than it is for rain. A missed rain forecast probably goes relatively unnoticed because rain is not usually a life or death situation.