The Big 12, Big 10, ACC, SEC and PAC 12 or not raiding each other, even if they want to. However, the Big 12 will be raiding the G5 community for 2 to 4 teams and the PAC 12 will raid for 2.

(01-30-2014 04:44 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  The Big 12, Big 10, ACC, SEC and PAC 12 or not raiding each other, even if they want to. However, the Big 12 will be raiding the G5 community for 2 to 4 teams and the PAC 12 will raid for 2.

Limiting it strictly to the G5 and those conferences leaves a short list.

In no particular order the best 10 options for both would be:

B12: Cincy, Central Florida, BYU, Memphis, South Florida, Tulane, Navy, Rice, UConn, ECU.

In some form they have been rumored to express interest in the 1st 4, Tulane has been rumored as well, Rice seems palatable for some reason though I put them at a distant 10, South Florida would pair well with UCF, Navy and UConn extend the league into the northeast and give WVU someone in their own time zone. ECU provides a solid fanbase and another partner for WVU.

P12: BYU, Air Force, San Diego State, Houston, SMU, New Mexico, Hawaii, and Nevada.

Now this is hard to come off and not sound homerish but here it is and I really am not playing the homer card (I will explain). If you are limiting the P12 to 2 schools from the G5 I think it would be Houston and SMU.

BYU, Air Force, and San Diego State are good schools but there is a documented history working against BYU, San Diego State is in a state that the P12 has well covered. With Air Force if you were not to bring in BYU with it would leave minimal options on the table.

Let’s say they add AF who do you pair them with? As I said SDST is in an area well covered. BYU (history), New Mexico is a possibility if you want but you already have a school in Colorado (and Utah for that matter see BYU). This also plays against AF's consistent lack of interest in getting into a P5 conference (see the B12 rumors). It has its own different mission and P5 status is not make or break for them.

Hawaii is literally on an island..... New Mexico as I mentioned with AF who do you pair them with? There are schools like Nevada that would get them into 2 more states not currently in the fold but the P12 already has significant exposure in Nevada.

That leaves the state of Texas and if the Texoma bunch is not coming (in your scenario) there is the viable pair of UH and SMU that puts the P12 into 2 of the largest markets in the country.

How likely is this? Very unlikely but I am playing the game within the parameters you set (G5 schools).

There won't be anymore "Raids".

(01-30-2014 05:27 PM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote:  

(01-30-2014 04:44 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  The Big 12, Big 10, ACC, SEC and PAC 12 or not raiding each other, even if they want to. However, the Big 12 will be raiding the G5 community for 2 to 4 teams and the PAC 12 will raid for 2.

Limiting it strictly to the G5 and those conferences leaves a short list.

In no particular order the best 10 options for both would be:

B12: Cincy, Central Florida, BYU, Memphis, South Florida, Tulane, Navy, Rice, UConn, ECU.

In some form they have been rumored to express interest in the 1st 4, Tulane has been rumored as well, Rice seems palatable for some reason though I put them at a distant 10, South Florida would pair well with UCF, Navy and UConn extend the league into the northeast and give WVU someone in their own time zone. ECU provides a solid fanbase and another partner for WVU.

P12: BYU, Air Force, San Diego State, Houston, SMU, New Mexico, Hawaii, and Nevada.

Now this is hard to come off and not sound homerish but here it is and I really am not playing the homer card (I will explain). If you are limiting the P12 to 2 schools from the G5 I think it would be Houston and SMU.

BYU, Air Force, and San Diego State are good schools but there is a documented history working against BYU, San Diego State is in a state that the P12 has well covered. With Air Force if you were not to bring in BYU with it would leave minimal options on the table.

Let’s say they add AF who do you pair them with? As I said SDST is in an area well covered. BYU (history), New Mexico is a possibility if you want but you already have a school in Colorado (and Utah for that matter see BYU). This also plays against AF's consistent lack of interest in getting into a P5 conference (see the B12 rumors). It has its own different mission and P5 status is not make or break for them.

Hawaii is literally on an island..... New Mexico as I mentioned with AF who do you pair them with? There are schools like Nevada that would get them into 2 more states not currently in the fold but the P12 already has significant exposure in Nevada.

That leaves the state of Texas and if the Texoma bunch is not coming (in your scenario) there is the viable pair of UH and SMU that puts the P12 into 2 of the largest markets in the country.

How likely is this? Very unlikely but I am playing the game within the parameters you set (G5 schools).

Yes, I'm aware that you said these scenarios are unlikely. The PAC 12 will not take religious schools unless something drastic happens with PAC 12 leadership--- so that basically excludes TCU, SMU, Baylor and BYU.

They will not take UH unless 3 of the 4 Texoma schools are included. I hear all the time that they won't take Tech without Texas. I'm fairly certain they won't take UH unless they can get bigger names to help them in the Central Time Zone. Sorry, you may not like that but the only way UH gets a PAC 12 invite is for Tech, OU, OSU, the PAC 12 and their TV partners to agree on their addition.

The Big 12 is not and will not expand with the options listed above unless they add 20+ million to our TV deal. IIRC, none of those schools earn anywhere near that so I'm fairly certain they won't bring any added monetary value to the Big 12.

(01-30-2014 08:14 PM)jml2010 Wrote:  

(01-30-2014 05:27 PM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote:  

(01-30-2014 04:44 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  The Big 12, Big 10, ACC, SEC and PAC 12 or not raiding each other, even if they want to. However, the Big 12 will be raiding the G5 community for 2 to 4 teams and the PAC 12 will raid for 2.

Limiting it strictly to the G5 and those conferences leaves a short list.

In no particular order the best 10 options for both would be:

B12: Cincy, Central Florida, BYU, Memphis, South Florida, Tulane, Navy, Rice, UConn, ECU.

In some form they have been rumored to express interest in the 1st 4, Tulane has been rumored as well, Rice seems palatable for some reason though I put them at a distant 10, South Florida would pair well with UCF, Navy and UConn extend the league into the northeast and give WVU someone in their own time zone. ECU provides a solid fanbase and another partner for WVU.

P12: BYU, Air Force, San Diego State, Houston, SMU, New Mexico, Hawaii, and Nevada.

Now this is hard to come off and not sound homerish but here it is and I really am not playing the homer card (I will explain). If you are limiting the P12 to 2 schools from the G5 I think it would be Houston and SMU.

BYU, Air Force, and San Diego State are good schools but there is a documented history working against BYU, San Diego State is in a state that the P12 has well covered. With Air Force if you were not to bring in BYU with it would leave minimal options on the table.

Let’s say they add AF who do you pair them with? As I said SDST is in an area well covered. BYU (history), New Mexico is a possibility if you want but you already have a school in Colorado (and Utah for that matter see BYU). This also plays against AF's consistent lack of interest in getting into a P5 conference (see the B12 rumors). It has its own different mission and P5 status is not make or break for them.

Hawaii is literally on an island..... New Mexico as I mentioned with AF who do you pair them with? There are schools like Nevada that would get them into 2 more states not currently in the fold but the P12 already has significant exposure in Nevada.

That leaves the state of Texas and if the Texoma bunch is not coming (in your scenario) there is the viable pair of UH and SMU that puts the P12 into 2 of the largest markets in the country.

How likely is this? Very unlikely but I am playing the game within the parameters you set (G5 schools).

Yes, I'm aware that you said these scenarios are unlikely. The PAC 12 will not take religious schools unless something drastic happens with PAC 12 leadership--- so that basically excludes TCU, SMU, Baylor and BYU.

They will not take UH unless 3 of the 4 Texoma schools are included. I hear all the time that they won't take Tech without Texas. I'm fairly certain they won't take UH unless they can get bigger names to help them in the Central Time Zone. Sorry, you may not like that but the only way UH gets a PAC 12 invite is for Tech, OU, OSU, the PAC 12 and their TV partners to agree on their addition.

The Big 12 is not and will not expand with the options listed above unless they add 20+ million to our TV deal. IIRC, none of those schools earn anywhere near that so I'm fairly certain they won't bring any added monetary value to the Big 12.

You missed the point he limited it to G5 only and I think I made my case. I could surely see one school here and one school there being an option over either UH or SMU but since they are "picking" 2 it narrows the field.

The "game" was picking G5 schools that made sense. Leave the money argument at the door but consider every other thing that comes into play.

Cincy, Central Florida, BYU, Memphis, South Florida, Tulane, Navy, Rice, UConn, ECU

Cincy brings strong fb and bb
UCF brings string fb a new state and an emerging fan base
BYU brings a strong fan base strong fb and bb
Memphis new territory bridge to WVU and strong bb

Yeah yeah with the 20 million thing but in the "game" these are the 4 they choose if limited to the g5. You can swap Memphis for ECU I just chose the later but either would work.

who ever brings up Rice, ECU, Tulane, Navy, Neveda, should be fired on the spot

(01-30-2014 07:36 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  There won't be anymore "Raids".

Haha always hated that term.

I think Houston and UCF as public schools have a lot of room to work with, especially with the stadiums etc.

(01-31-2014 02:46 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  who ever brings up Rice, ECU, Tulane, Navy, Neveda, should be fired on the spot

ECU has a very strong fanbase and good football. Navy and Nevada are geographic fits and the B12 has expressed interest, however minimal, in Tulane in the past.

I think all of those schools are longshots short of ECU but I was trying to keep an open mind and not limit the field too much.

I did say Rice was a distant 10 but the B12 plays them consistently now which is more than any other G5 school can say.

If people are right about no more raids for a while, this gives the "The Ameircan" a chance to consolidate, grow and solidify itself and maybe get a decent TV revenue deal within the next 3-4 years, if not sooner.

It would be shocking if anybody left the big 10, pac 12 or sec outside of maybe Missouri to the big 10. I would be a little surprised if anybody left the acc, probably on the level of missouri joining the big 10, possible but not really a good bet. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the big 12 had a exodus to the big 10, pac 12, sec or acc.

(01-30-2014 05:27 PM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote:  

(01-30-2014 04:44 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  The Big 12, Big 10, ACC, SEC and PAC 12 or not raiding each other, even if they want to. However, the Big 12 will be raiding the G5 community for 2 to 4 teams and the PAC 12 will raid for 2.

Limiting it strictly to the G5 and those conferences leaves a short list.

In no particular order the best 10 options for both would be:

B12: Cincy, Central Florida, BYU, Memphis, South Florida, Tulane, Navy, Rice, UConn, ECU.

In some form they have been rumored to express interest in the 1st 4, Tulane has been rumored as well, Rice seems palatable for some reason though I put them at a distant 10, South Florida would pair well with UCF, Navy and UConn extend the league into the northeast and give WVU someone in their own time zone. ECU provides a solid fanbase and another partner for WVU.

P12: BYU, Air Force, San Diego State, Houston, SMU, New Mexico, Hawaii, and Nevada.

Now this is hard to come off and not sound homerish but here it is and I really am not playing the homer card (I will explain). If you are limiting the P12 to 2 schools from the G5 I think it would be Houston and SMU.

BYU, Air Force, and San Diego State are good schools but there is a documented history working against BYU, San Diego State is in a state that the P12 has well covered. With Air Force if you were not to bring in BYU with it would leave minimal options on the table.

Let’s say they add AF who do you pair them with? As I said SDST is in an area well covered. BYU (history), New Mexico is a possibility if you want but you already have a school in Colorado (and Utah for that matter see BYU). This also plays against AF's consistent lack of interest in getting into a P5 conference (see the B12 rumors). It has its own different mission and P5 status is not make or break for them.

Hawaii is literally on an island..... New Mexico as I mentioned with AF who do you pair them with? There are schools like Nevada that would get them into 2 more states not currently in the fold but the P12 already has significant exposure in Nevada.

That leaves the state of Texas and if the Texoma bunch is not coming (in your scenario) there is the viable pair of UH and SMU that puts the P12 into 2 of the largest markets in the country.

How likely is this? Very unlikely but I am playing the game within the parameters you set (G5 schools).

I always wonder about this whole pairing concept in the current realignment world. Why does West Virginia need a "partner" or a "bridge" to the rest of the league? All it means for them is that once every other year they won't have quite as long a flight to one of their conference games. If WVU wants to play against good schools in their own corner of the US, they can do it OOC, with schools like Pitt, Louisville, Cincy, ECU, etc.

The reason they are in the B12 is because it was their only viable option to find a chair in a P5 conference when the realignment music stopped playing. If their choice was/is between being the only eastern school in the B12 or being stuck in the AAC, they'd make that same decision every day.

If the B12 wants to consider schools like Cincy, they should do it for reasons that have nothing to do with WVU.

(01-31-2014 12:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  I always wonder about this whole pairing concept in the current realignment world. Why does West Virginia need a "partner" or a "bridge" to the rest of the league? All it means for them is that once every other year they won't have quite as long a flight to one of their conference games. If WVU wants to play against good schools in their own corner of the US, they can do it OOC, with schools like Pitt, Louisville, Cincy, ECU, etc.

The reason they are in the B12 is because it was their only viable option to find a chair in a P5 conference when the realignment music stopped playing. If their choice was/is between being the only eastern school in the B12 or being stuck in the AAC, they'd make that same decision every day.

If the B12 wants to consider schools like Cincy, they should do it for reasons that have nothing to do with WVU.

Oh I agree but when I considered all factors the proximity to WVU was a factor but more of an afterthought or a bonus if you will.

I looked primarily at schools in the CST and EST times zones. Schools that either brought in a new desirable market or athletic success in football/mens basketball (preferably both). I also added the desire to BYU or Air force in the MST, and the potential of adding SDST from the PST.

That said I could not see them adding SDST and creating another school on an island and spreading themselves coast to coast. When schools of equal (or at least very close to equal to satisfy the homers out there) value and in the general neck of the woods of WVU are available.

I agree WVU took the B12 to ensure they were in the "club" and their isolation is of their own choosing.

So it's becoming more evident that this ridiculous obsession with the Big XII expansion has more to do with ex conference mates of WVU who are still playing patty cake at the kid's table.

(01-31-2014 12:59 PM)oklalittledixie Wrote:  So it's becoming more evident that this ridiculous obsession with the Big XII expansion has more to do with ex conference mates of WVU who are still playing patty cake at the kid's table.

Yet you keep coming back to post. It looks like you're obsessed with everyone else's obsession.

(01-31-2014 12:59 PM)oklalittledixie Wrote:  So it's becoming more evident that this ridiculous obsession with the Big XII expansion has more to do with ex conference mates of WVU who are still playing patty cake at the kid's table.

Even though we were never members of the Big East together I can assure you that any reasonable UH fan has no delusions of grandeur about a landing spot in the B12.

Personally I see the only two options that have a more than zero (regardless of how little it is) chance of happening are the P12 and the ACC.

The B12 for a number of reasons has no desire to add UH. We could average 50k and 11 wins and at the very least Texas would still veto us.

The SEC had a glimmer of a chance in the early 90's but those days have passed and that will never happen.

The B10 will just never happen.....

So that leaves the P12 and the ACC.

(01-31-2014 11:27 AM)bluesox Wrote:  It would be shocking if anybody left the big 10, pac 12 or sec outside of maybe Missouri to the big 10. I would be a little surprised if anybody left the acc, probably on the level of missouri joining the big 10, possible but not really a good bet. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the big 12 had a exodus to the big 10, pac 12, sec or acc.

I agree that inter-P5 poaching is unlikely at this point. The only possible scenario I could imagine would be SEC to B1G because the SEC doesn't have exit penalties and the B1G has almost as much money. Missouri and Vandy are the only two who could make such a move, and who might have reason to do so. But they are a very long shot at best.

(01-31-2014 02:46 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  who ever brings up Rice, ECU, Tulane, Navy, Neveda, should be fired on the spot

Wilner suggested Rice as a possibility if the PAC ever expanded to 20:

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegespor...ld-it-get/

All of his other PAC targets are B12 schools. Rice is the only G5 school.

I doubt the PAC cares about their following. See Stanford. They were always a highly valued member of the conference despite their small fanbase. They scaled down their stadium in 2005. Even after they got hot under Harbaugh, home game attendance was surprisingly low. This is why they needed the Notre Dame series. And yet the PAC would love to have a Stanford. In Texas, to boot? It could happen.

Texas would have to be gone from the Big 12 before Houston or SMU would get an invite.

The Big 12 is firmly set at #5 after the SEC, B1G, PAC, and ACC in revenue. End of story. Done. Unless they add markets.

The Big 12 has NO CHANCE to pull schools away from the 4 conferences above it. End of story. Done. That ship sailed.

Adding markets, meaning new schools, means a slightly smaller cut for the existing members until the new member(s) could generate enough revenue to offset it. The championship game would help, but probably not IMMEDIATELY make up the difference.

So eventually, the revenue coming from the Big 12 and going to Texas and Oklahoma is going to be less than what Vanderbilt and Ole Miss receive from the SEC. And skewing the revenue-sharing (AGAIN) more in their favor won't be enough. The Longhorn Network won't generate enough either. That's when they'll leave for greener pastures.

So expect Texas and Oklahoma to bleed the Big 12 until that happens, because they surely won't share in order to build another brand.

Then what do the leftovers do? And don't think there will be immediate "life boats" from the Big 4 floating their way. That will take politicking and time, which means you will need replacement schools to bye that time with.

G6?