(01-23-2014 11:46 AM)tnzazz Wrote:  

(01-23-2014 09:20 AM)okcomputer76 Wrote:  

(01-22-2014 09:01 PM)boss man Wrote:  Doesn't about two people a year submit a perfect bracket to all these contests to win seats to next years Final 4?

It'd be cool if someone won it by simply flipping a coin for all 63 games.

No one has and no one ever will have a perfect bracket. Warren Buffett knows this.

It seems like someone has a perfect bracket every year on ESPN's bracket challenge. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think so.

Odds be damned, I'm going for perfection.

I believe last year or the year before that a young woman who wasn't a college bb fan or a sports fan for that matter, filled one out for a national bracket contest and got them all correct. It has happened before but its probably a lot of luck more than actual analyzing the matchups

(01-23-2014 12:01 PM)BigTigerMike Wrote:  

(01-23-2014 11:46 AM)tnzazz Wrote:  

(01-23-2014 09:20 AM)okcomputer76 Wrote:  

(01-22-2014 09:01 PM)boss man Wrote:  Doesn't about two people a year submit a perfect bracket to all these contests to win seats to next years Final 4?

It'd be cool if someone won it by simply flipping a coin for all 63 games.

No one has and no one ever will have a perfect bracket. Warren Buffett knows this.

It seems like someone has a perfect bracket every year on ESPN's bracket challenge. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think so.

Odds be damned, I'm going for perfection.

I believe last year or the year before that a young woman who wasn't a college bb fan or a sports fan for that matter, filled one out for a national bracket contest and got them all correct. It has happened before but its probably a lot of luck more than actual analyzing the matchups

It would be about the same as buying 2 Powerball tickes at two different stores and winning on both of them. It's never going to happen. The odds of getting the first round, (Thursday through Sunday games), correct are ridiculous.

The difference between this and Powerball is that a certain number of brackets are guaranteed to go one way. The 1's are basically guaranteed. The 2's are usually guaranteed. You can usually tell which 3, 4, and 5's that will be upset. It's the middle of the road games that usually get you.

(01-23-2014 11:25 AM)Latilleon Wrote:  

(01-21-2014 04:20 PM)Tiger46 Wrote:  

(01-21-2014 04:08 PM)Briskbas Wrote:  

(01-21-2014 04:04 PM)Tiger46 Wrote:  

(01-21-2014 02:29 PM)mairving Wrote:  Odds are 1 in 92 quintillion.

Story

It's 40 $25 million dollar payments.

Not a good time to be 60 years old...

You can take a lump sum of 500 million.

I could work with that. Clear about 250 after taxes. A loss of 750 million dollars due to age. Discrimination.

Ahem, 305 million. Plus you'd have a year to hire those accountants mega-rich people hire to lower your tax obligation.

Plus a year to earn interest on the tax money you need to pay that wasn't withheld. (I'm guessing $95 million.) if you put $95 million in an instrument paying 3% for the year, that's Josh Pastner's salary for a year off money you are paying in taxes.

I would definitely consult with someone and do about what you suggest. Give $10 million to each of my kids, buy a Gulfstream, hire a pilot and check in with you guys about once a week.

(01-23-2014 12:33 PM)Tiger46 Wrote:  

(01-23-2014 11:25 AM)Latilleon Wrote:  

(01-21-2014 04:20 PM)Tiger46 Wrote:  

(01-21-2014 04:08 PM)Briskbas Wrote:  

(01-21-2014 04:04 PM)Tiger46 Wrote:  Not a good time to be 60 years old...

You can take a lump sum of 500 million.

I could work with that. Clear about 250 after taxes. A loss of 750 million dollars due to age. Discrimination.

Ahem, 305 million. Plus you'd have a year to hire those accountants mega-rich people hire to lower your tax obligation.

Plus a year to earn interest on the tax money you need to pay that wasn't withheld. (I'm guessing $95 million.) if you put $95 million in an instrument paying 3% for the year, that's Josh Pastner's salary for a year off money you are paying in taxes.

I would definitely consult with someone and do about what you suggest. Give $10 million to each of my kids, buy a Gulfstream, hire a pilot and check in with you guys about once a week.

You net $300 mill and you only give your kids $10 mill each? Glad you aren't my papa!

(01-23-2014 12:19 PM)Latilleon Wrote:  The difference between this and Powerball is that a certain number of brackets are guaranteed to go one way. The 1's are basically guaranteed. The 2's are usually guaranteed. You can usually tell which 3, 4, and 5's that will be upset. It's the middle of the road games that usually get you.

The difference is that the odds of winning the powerball are about one in 175 million.

The odds of getting the correct bracket purely by luck (i.e. just flipping a coin even for the 1 -16 and 2 - 15 games) is one in 9.2 quintillion.

1 in 175,000,000

vs.

1 in 9,200,000,000,000,000

If every person in the world submitted a randomly generated bracket the chances (7 something billion people) that one of them would have a perfect bracket would be more than 1 in 1.25 million.

Introducing knowledge into the equation (i.e among other things, accounting for the fact that the one and two seeds should be passed at least through the first round) gets you to a little bit better than powerball odds at 1 in 128 million.

Here is what ESPN had to say about a perfect bracket:

"John Diver, director of product development for ESPN Fantasy, said in the 13 years that ESPN has offered NCAA bracket contests, no one has ever come close to a perfect bracket, even though there have been about 30 million entries. In fact, only once in the last seven years has anyone gotten the first round perfect." (http://kdvr.com/2014/01/21/buffett-offer...l-bracket/)

It's happening. I got it. I'm winning the $1 billion and donating $20 million to University of Memphis football and $5 million to basketball.

(01-23-2014 01:41 PM)bmcgee81 Wrote:  Here is what ESPN had to say about a perfect bracket:

"John Diver, director of product development for ESPN Fantasy, said in the 13 years that ESPN has offered NCAA bracket contests, no one has ever come close to a perfect bracket, even though there have been about 30 million entries. In fact, only once in the last seven years has anyone gotten the first round perfect." (http://kdvr.com/2014/01/21/buffett-offer...l-bracket/)

Shows what I know.

(01-23-2014 01:41 PM)bmcgee81 Wrote:  Here is what ESPN had to say about a perfect bracket:

"John Diver, director of product development for ESPN Fantasy, said in the 13 years that ESPN has offered NCAA bracket contests, no one has ever come close to a perfect bracket, even though there have been about 30 million entries. In fact, only once in the last seven years has anyone gotten the first round perfect." (http://kdvr.com/2014/01/21/buffett-offer...l-bracket/)

Wow...that's surprising. Not the perfect bracket part but that there has only been 1 perfect first round.

I could have sworn I read something about a perfect bracket in the last few years.

(01-23-2014 03:11 PM)genieiab Wrote:  

(01-23-2014 01:41 PM)bmcgee81 Wrote:  Here is what ESPN had to say about a perfect bracket:

"John Diver, director of product development for ESPN Fantasy, said in the 13 years that ESPN has offered NCAA bracket contests, no one has ever come close to a perfect bracket, even though there have been about 30 million entries. In fact, only once in the last seven years has anyone gotten the first round perfect." (http://kdvr.com/2014/01/21/buffett-offer...l-bracket/)

Wow...that's surprising. Not the perfect bracket part but that there has only been 1 perfect first round.

I could have sworn I read something about a perfect bracket in the last few years.

There has indeed been somebody winning a perfect bracket, it may not have been ESPN bracket but somewhere there was news coverage of someone winning one of those contests and I remember seeing it. Althought I'll say its rare

(01-21-2014 02:29 PM)mairving Wrote:  Odds are 1 in 92 quintillion.

Story

It's 40 $25 million dollar payments.

What if only 90 quintillion play .

(01-23-2014 03:54 PM)BigTigerMike Wrote:  

(01-23-2014 03:11 PM)genieiab Wrote:  

(01-23-2014 01:41 PM)bmcgee81 Wrote:  Here is what ESPN had to say about a perfect bracket:

"John Diver, director of product development for ESPN Fantasy, said in the 13 years that ESPN has offered NCAA bracket contests, no one has ever come close to a perfect bracket, even though there have been about 30 million entries. In fact, only once in the last seven years has anyone gotten the first round perfect." (http://kdvr.com/2014/01/21/buffett-offer...l-bracket/)

Wow...that's surprising. Not the perfect bracket part but that there has only been 1 perfect first round.

I could have sworn I read something about a perfect bracket in the last few years.

There has indeed been somebody winning a perfect bracket, it may not have been ESPN bracket but somewhere there was news coverage of someone winning one of those contests and I remember seeing it. Althought I'll say its rare

Maybe we're remembering this.

No one is calling 17-year-old Alex Hermann a liar, but CBS Sports' "Bracket Manager" does make it impossible to verify that he correctly called all 48 NCAA tournament winners—and also makes it easy to forge a perfect score.

(01-23-2014 05:12 PM)genieiab Wrote:  

(01-23-2014 03:54 PM)BigTigerMike Wrote:  

(01-23-2014 03:11 PM)genieiab Wrote:  

(01-23-2014 01:41 PM)bmcgee81 Wrote:  Here is what ESPN had to say about a perfect bracket:

"John Diver, director of product development for ESPN Fantasy, said in the 13 years that ESPN has offered NCAA bracket contests, no one has ever come close to a perfect bracket, even though there have been about 30 million entries. In fact, only once in the last seven years has anyone gotten the first round perfect." (http://kdvr.com/2014/01/21/buffett-offer...l-bracket/)

Wow...that's surprising. Not the perfect bracket part but that there has only been 1 perfect first round.

I could have sworn I read something about a perfect bracket in the last few years.

There has indeed been somebody winning a perfect bracket, it may not have been ESPN bracket but somewhere there was news coverage of someone winning one of those contests and I remember seeing it. Althought I'll say its rare

Maybe we're remembering this.

No one is calling 17-year-old Alex Hermann a liar, but CBS Sports' "Bracket Manager" does make it impossible to verify that he correctly called all 48 NCAA tournament winners—and also makes it easy to forge a perfect score.

That's the article I thought about, too. Thanks for taking the time to find it. Who knows, really? Who cares, honestly?