http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21...ntry-ready

Pretty interesting article about how as many as 47% of the jobs in the country could be automated in the future.

As populations continue to grow and automation allows for lower human capital needs, it'll be interesting to see what follows.

I've been saying this for some time, I think Rebel and I even discussed it at some point. I also recently posted a link to Fred Reed musing on this.

The current innovation towards automation may be more impactful than the Industrial Revolution. The Industrial Revolution may serve as a guide, but you can't necessarily extrapolate indefinitely.

If todays innovation impact reaches a tipping point, where few people are actully employed but goods and services are cheap, what then? Economists assume scarcity...but what if that's not the case?

People want to blame NAFTA and offshoring for job losses, but mainly it's been automation (labor unions serving to catalyze this). How can that change? If it doesn't, what will people do? History suggests that idle people don't build utopia...they are destructive.

(01-17-2014 11:01 AM)DrTorch Wrote:  I've been saying this for some time, I think Rebel and I even discussed it at some point. I also recently posted a link to Fred Reed musing on this.

The current innovation towards automation may be more impactful than the Industrial Revolution. The Industrial Revolution may serve as a guide, but you can't necessarily extrapolate indefinitely.

If todays innovation impact reaches a tipping point, where few people are actully employed but goods and services are cheap, what then? Economists assume scarcity...but what if that's not the case?

People want to blame NAFTA and offshoring for job losses, but mainly it's been automation (labor unions serving to catalyze this). How can that change? If it doesn't, what will people do? History suggests that idle people don't build utopia...they are destructive.

Off-shoring and NAFTA are simply way-points on the road to automation. And to be honest as a nation we are at 70% post scarcity with regarding to housing, energy, food and other material desires. What constraints that do exist are completely artificial. As to your question of what do with idle hands; without a significant cultural change we'll need to either start developing The Matrix or start cranking out the Soma.

It will be interesting what the next innovation is that sparks entire new industries. People get really excited about 3D printing but most of the applications revolve around improving existing supply chains. Maybe I just lack vision, but I don't see it as the game-changer that others do.

Computers and the internet launched new industries.
The automobile launched new industries.
The airplane launched new industries.

What's next? I sure hope it's Americans that that do it.

(01-17-2014 12:48 PM)Hitch Wrote:  It will be interesting what the next innovation is that sparks entire new industries. People get really excited about 3D printing but most of the applications revolve around improving existing supply chains. Maybe I just lack vision, but I don't see it as the game-changer that others do.

Computers and the internet launched new industries.
The automobile launched new industries.
The airplane launched new industries.

What's next? I sure hope it's Americans that that do it.

At this point its going to be about getting off the planet. But such an effort will require a clear unified vision. I'm not sure if the gov't can do since at this point its change is clearly to help those who feel they are disadvantaged.

What this means is that people will need more and more skills in order to get the jobs in the future.

Education is the key.

(01-17-2014 12:48 PM)Hitch Wrote:  It will be interesting what the next innovation is that sparks entire new industries. People get really excited about 3D printing but most of the applications revolve around improving existing supply chains. Maybe I just lack vision, but I don't see it as the game-changer that others do.

Computers and the internet launched new industries.
The automobile launched new industries.
The airplane launched new industries.

What's next? I sure hope it's Americans that that do it.

I think 3d printing could spawn more small-scale manufacturing companies. Scale and equipment costs used to make it inefficient for small scale manufacturers to compete, but 3D printers are relatively cheap (in comparison) and could allow small scale operations to make goods at a competitive price.

I'd love to buy more locally made (and unique) products, but cost usually prevents that. I saw a great light fixture in a local store a few days ago that I wanted to buy...but it was $900! If 3D printing can help locals manufacture goods at a competitive price, I think it could lead to an American made / Buy Local revolution. I think most people want to support those in their local communities, but not at their own personal expense.

Or, 3D printing could do more damage to manufacturing. Could go either way, but I think it'll be a net positive in the long run.

(01-17-2014 12:52 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(01-17-2014 12:48 PM)Hitch Wrote:  It will be interesting what the next innovation is that sparks entire new industries. People get really excited about 3D printing but most of the applications revolve around improving existing supply chains. Maybe I just lack vision, but I don't see it as the game-changer that others do.

Computers and the internet launched new industries.
The automobile launched new industries.
The airplane launched new industries.

What's next? I sure hope it's Americans that that do it.

At this point its going to be about getting off the planet. But such an effort will require a clear unified vision. I'm not sure if the gov't can do since at this point its change is clearly to help those who feel they are disadvantaged.

If unemployment is the problem we're focusing on, we're going to have a structural unemployment problem until a low/medium skilled, labor-intensive and growing industry comes around. Advanced robotics and computer science isn't it.

Here's a terrifying thought: Perhaps all the "dumb" industries have already been exhausted and there will be a permanent class of under-skilled people that can never compete for future jobs.

(01-17-2014 12:56 PM)Hitch Wrote:  

(01-17-2014 12:52 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(01-17-2014 12:48 PM)Hitch Wrote:  It will be interesting what the next innovation is that sparks entire new industries. People get really excited about 3D printing but most of the applications revolve around improving existing supply chains. Maybe I just lack vision, but I don't see it as the game-changer that others do.

Computers and the internet launched new industries.
The automobile launched new industries.
The airplane launched new industries.

What's next? I sure hope it's Americans that that do it.

At this point its going to be about getting off the planet. But such an effort will require a clear unified vision. I'm not sure if the gov't can do since at this point its change is clearly to help those who feel they are disadvantaged.

If unemployment is the problem we're focusing on, we're going to have a structural unemployment problem until a low/medium skilled, labor-intensive and growing industry comes around. Advanced robotics and computer science isn't it.

Here's a terrifying thought: Perhaps all the "dumb" industries have already been exhausted and there will be a permanent class of under-skilled people that can never compete for future jobs.

Or there will be an extreme bi-modal distribution of jobs: garbage haulers b/c it's not worth automating that, and robotics engineers and medical researchers.

It's the average people in the middle, other than some artistic types, who are in the most trouble.

(01-17-2014 01:01 PM)DrTorch Wrote:  

(01-17-2014 12:56 PM)Hitch Wrote:  

(01-17-2014 12:52 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(01-17-2014 12:48 PM)Hitch Wrote:  It will be interesting what the next innovation is that sparks entire new industries. People get really excited about 3D printing but most of the applications revolve around improving existing supply chains. Maybe I just lack vision, but I don't see it as the game-changer that others do.

Computers and the internet launched new industries.
The automobile launched new industries.
The airplane launched new industries.

What's next? I sure hope it's Americans that that do it.

At this point its going to be about getting off the planet. But such an effort will require a clear unified vision. I'm not sure if the gov't can do since at this point its change is clearly to help those who feel they are disadvantaged.

If unemployment is the problem we're focusing on, we're going to have a structural unemployment problem until a low/medium skilled, labor-intensive and growing industry comes around. Advanced robotics and computer science isn't it.

Here's a terrifying thought: Perhaps all the "dumb" industries have already been exhausted and there will be a permanent class of under-skilled people that can never compete for future jobs.

Or there will be an extreme bi-modal distribution of jobs: garbage haulers b/c it's not worth automating that, and robotics engineers and medical researchers.

It's the average people in the middle, other than some artistic types, who are in the most trouble.

I think in the long run, employment across all sectors is in trouble. We are going to have to completely rethink the nation's social organization and I think it will involve a great deal of socialism. Clearly, there is enough enclose space in the US to house everyone, maybe instead of buying a house as we currently do one is simply given it in exchange for say laying 50 miles of fiber optic cable or managing the local wastewater treatment facility.

This was not the goal of the technocracy movement during the 1930’s.