(12-16-2013 10:50 AM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote: WKU has played some pretty good competition and is battle-tested. USM on the other hand, has played an extremely weak schedule and was blown out by their only tough opponent (UL) on the road. So I will say advantage WKU especially since the game is at WKU.
This analysis is absolutely brilliant. USM has beaten DePaul, North Dakota State, and South Alabama all on the road. At least two of those road wins are better than WKU's best win which I suppose would be a win vs a 4-6 UNC-Wilmington squad at home. USM's "extremely weak" schedule gives us a SOS of 123 (RPI), 101 (Pomeroy) or 135 (Sagarin) depending on which measure you prefer. WKU's SOS is ranked 255, 152, and 221 by the same measurements. Once you get past the two teams that beat them by 17 and 16 points respectively, WKU hasn't faced a team with a winning record vs D-I competition. USM on the other hand has beaten 3 teams with winning records vs D-I competition.
You could make the argument that we're playing on the road and WKU is tough at home. All games are tough on the road especially when you're an aggressive defensive team because the refs will not let you get overly aggresive. You might even make the argument that WKU had a better showing against the teams' sole common opponent. It would be a fairly weak argument but I'd listen to it. The argument that WKU is battle tested while USM has played a patsy schedule just doesn't hold water at all.
As to my opinion of the actual matchup, I'm a little concerned about WKU's ability to rebound on their offensive end. Playing a zone almost exclusively makes defensive rebounding a bit of a weakness. WKU will take 25+ 3-pt shots. If you hit 10 or more, you probably win the game. WKU has longer guards. It'll be a tough matchup for our guys, but that's been the case in virtually every game we've played so far. I'm basing this just off of stats since I haven't seen WKU play a game this season, but it looks like WKU plays a straight man defense. Offensively, we've looked much more efficient against a man defense than we have against zone defenses this season, but we haven't seen a whole lot of man defense in our last few games. Morehead played about 50/50, but everyone else since Houston Baptist has been zone 100% of the time. I think USM is a more well-rounded team with three players averaging double figures and 5 guys over 8 pts a game compared to WKU with two guys averaging double figures (excluding the kid who just has one game under his belt) and just 3 over 8 per game. That could change a bit with the new additions. I don't know anything about Harrison-Docks, but I saw Trency Jackson play quite a bit in Jackson and then a little when he first came to USM in practice and an exhibition. He's got some talent and good athleticism, but he's got the same ailment most Jackson High School player has in that he thinks he's Monta Ellis and wants to take every shot he gets. Improve his shot selection and get him moving toward the basket, and he should be a good one in time.
If I was an oddsmaker, I'd open the line at USM -3, but I always think too little credit is given to home court advantage so it really is anybody's game.
