(12-06-2013 01:30 AM)john01992 Wrote: (12-06-2013 01:08 AM)JRsec Wrote: (12-06-2013 12:54 AM)john01992 Wrote: the only time i really get involved with these hypotheticals is if you can say for sure that conference X will take school Y and vice versa......
as of right now im not sold on texas to the sec.......
kansas, isu and/or ou to the b10
those are moves that you really cant say for sure if the school or conference can get the votes on that
I accept your trepidation for predicting those. But when you look at what the SEC has done, not said, everything has been laying the foundation for landing two more schools in the West, Oklahoma and most likely Texas. From an SEC perspective both would make us more money on content and markets, although Texas on the market end to a lesser extent now that A&M is on board. It is possible that by 2013 standards that Kansas could be paired with Oklahoma, but I think that would be a hard sell to the fans.
It will be fun to see who is right on this. But, I also believe that ESPN prevented our last set of predicted moves. The SEC didn't say that we were going after Clemson and F.S.U., but 2 years ago that was an ESPN rumor. Immediately following that rumor the footprint issue came to the forefront. If there were thoughts of going after those two they were killed by the dangled rewards of expansion being for new markets. Whether Texas chooses the ACC or SEC I believe that ESPN will be holding onto them as the top property in college football and that the ACC and SEC will be rewarded for more cross conference matches between them and that ESPN will exploit their combined sports appeal. That much I'm confident in. How that plays out depends upon a number of variables. It could be in a combined Network that maximizes the footprint of both together across the Fall and Winter spectrum, or through some minor form of reshuffling teams between them, or something unforeseen. But those are the two prime properties in college sports. The most viewed conference and the conference with the largest market, and both predominantly in a college first market.
if the major networks are having a major impact on conf. realignment it is the best kept secret in sports. while it is an interesting concept and im sure the conferences take that into account.....
the sec in conjunction with the possibility of a future sec network opted to go after schools that were in new states, with solid recruiting grounds, land grants and excellent academics.
as nice as clemson & fsu would be ==> they dont add as much to the sec as mizz/aggie. texas a&m has long been an sec expansion target. and in the "add new states" mentality that has been conf realignment in the 2000s its pretty obvious that aggie was higher than FSU on the sec wishlist
syracuse has been a target for acc expansion for over a decade. contrary to popular belief, pitt is in fact our biggest rival because from an overall sports perspective ==> they have been aligned with syracuse longer than any other big east member
colorado & utah ==> same story. both long time p12 expansion targets, both schools have deep roots with each other going back 100+ years
thats why these "networks are controlling conf. realignment" theories make no sense to me. ESPN conspired to kill the BE by forcing the ACC to raid that conference? that just doesnt add up for a number of reasons.
all 4 of these conferences (sec, b10, acc, p12) appeared to make moves that make the most sense culturally, politically, athletics. moves that make the best sense for themselves first, the network second.
these are conferences that existed for over 100 years and making decisions based on membership that will affect them for the next 50 years. theres no way they add members based just on 12 year tv contracts. i just dont think the networks have as much leverage as you give them credit for (scheduling is a whole different story)
if college sports got to the point where the networks had that much power.....
the b10 would say "F... this" we are taking the ivy league de emphasized sports route rather than have their conference membership be determined by tv networks. the other 3 power conferences (exception being the b12) would go that extreme.......
but they sure as hell wont let someone else call the shots for them like that. the networks may try to push certain conferences in a particular direction......but at the end of the day those conferences are running the show and are holding all the cards.
A well written and good argument. Now step back from what you just said and take a look at what has happened from the network perspective. I submit that possibility for a move (meaning easiest fruit to pick) met conference needs, which also met network needs. Utah gives you a new state and builds a bridge toward the central time zone without having to deal with BYU's issues. Colorado builds that bridge right next door to where you want to go taking the most willing participant and grabbing the best TV market west of Dallas and East of California. No networks involved here as the PAC owns it's own. Fair enough.
The PAC offers Texahoma to gain their final objective of prize schools with large followings in the Central Time Zone. What was the response? Aggie is encouraged to move to the SEC (which serendipity fits right in with ESPN's objective to break up this deal and make Slive think he's obtaining an objective. More money is tendered to make it happen. The timing was perfect as that is when cultural fit took a back seat to footprint, but again since A&M was an SEC target the network gets what it wants without appearing to be guilty of collusion or interference.)
How does ESPN long range plan to protect their objectives?
1. Stop Texas's desire to move because Oklahoma won't go without them.
Enter the LHN.
2. Begin to arrange a soft landing option under ESPN control so that when a weakened Big 12 does implode you don't have to lose your objectives.
Enter Mizzou into the discussion. Why? Delany and the Mouse had experienced a frosty interlude over the BTN. Missouri is the linchpin to creating an AAU path to Texas. Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas are properties worth protecting and those 4 plus the 12 at that time in the Big 10 was too easy of a path to 16 and larger markets for a less friendly BTN.
(Aside: It was the understanding that the BTN would be interested in larger Eastern markets that prompted ESPN to direct Syracuse and Pitt into the ACC, and the B.C. administration admitted as much. So ACC expansion prior to this last set of moves was another preemptive strike to protect markets and valuable sports property from the BTN expansion to come.) John this is network driven.
By discouraging any interest the SEC may or may not have had in F.S.U. or Clemson ESPN protected the two assets whose absence would have diminished the ACC football value to levels unsustainable. The SEC was given a contract that encouraged renegotiation if two new markets were added. F.S.U. and Clemson are off the boards and with A&M being encouraged as part of the strategy to break up the Texahoma Deal #1 and Missouri tendered as a travel mate to try to stop Big 10 incursion into the Southwest following the taking of Syracuse and Pitt in the East the SEC is bought off from complaining about any altered plans and encouraged now to continue to look West.
Delany tries to bust up the plan. He takes Rutgers because they have a good demographic and Maryland to try to dislodge the protected ACC who is weak and makes too little to remain viable. Enter long time Delany nemesis Notre Dame. In the midst of panic the Irish get a Big East deal in the ACC and their name helps to stabilize panic and gives ESPN a reason to supplement the paltry price for which it has purchased all ACC properties. The GOR is forced when F.S.U. realizes that the SEC won't call and that they are too remote for a cut off Delany to make a move. The ACC is stabilized.
Delany needing an ally permits a BTN purchase by FOX and the YES network of the Yankees to give FOX 51% control of the BTN. Now he has allies with deep pockets to go after product that both he and FOX want.
Kansas gets a nice tier 3 deal from ESPN and Oklahoma gets one from FOX. This is no accident. What might have been a equitable division of properties in the wounded Big 12 is halted by network stalemates until details that are profitable for both can be worked out.
Since neither FOX nor ESPN own a percentage of the PAC but both do lease PAC product the question rests on what a compromise means. And that is unclear.
So John ESPN is latched onto Texas and Kansas. One basketball legend and one football legend. Oklahoma was a small state and always assumed to go with Texas so ESPN was foolish to permit FOX to scoop them there. The actual buyout for those tier 3 rights will be about 5 million a year which is however very doable.
But where to place Texas? ESPN drug its feet on the ACCN for reasons. They would have difficulties getting a good return for perhaps quite a few years opening in essentially the same market as the SECN and because they needed a way to morph the loser we call the LHN into something that would be a win win. If however Texas is adamant about not making that move to be an outlier there is another solution that has been prearranged, the SEC West. It already has two old rivals of the Horns, Arkansas and A&M. Add Oklahoma to that and the key properties stay under ESPN control for the foreseeable future. The Big 12 GOR is what gets in the way and that was purely a Texas venture to keep their options open when panic had stricken the Big 12 following the departures of 4 solid programs. As far as Nebraska goes ESPN could not have landed them in either the SEC or ACC so that is what it is. Plus their departure helps to cull the properties of interest to ESPN down to 3. Now all ESPN has to do to hold onto Texas and Kansas is continue to pay them until the GOR is close enough to expiration as not to be too expensive to get around. Then it is either Texas to the ACC and Oklahoma and Kansas to the SEC, or Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC and Kansas to FOX and the BTN. Buying Kansas's tier 3 was the other blocking move that halted Big 10 expansion.
Now we wait. But John, the ones opening the purse and doling out coins are always the ones in control, always. When their interests can coincide with those of the conferences then they are protected beyond a reasonable doubt of tortuous interference. Take Care, JR
