(12-03-2013 02:41 PM)clcfball11 Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 02:33 PM)oilgasusa Wrote:  The original spread is what the book believes is the correct one. The beating moves the spread one way or the other. Basically Vegas is giving NIU the home field advantage because they have been there the last 3 years.

Yea...can't be that they believe NIU is 3 points better. Since they're, you know, 3 wins better.

Game is played at a neutral site. Zero chance Vegas gave them 3 points for "home field."

I think these MAC Championship games scare the hell out of Vegas, feels like protect mode to me. At the Mirage several years back, talked to a bookie and he said he thought the MAC was a hard place to make money, felt like anything could happen. I thought he was just blowing smoke but then he started quoting games scores, and I as overall impressed. Hard core gamblers are pretty cut and dry, and that's how he was. He liked NIU over all others in the MAC though, but felt the MAC was just tough to predict.

1) Thought is it will be close game, as NIU has played in the last 2 yrs while winning

2) Either

a) Vegas wants "literally" a money split and are getting it (it it stays the same) as stated above for "lack of $" on it, hard to predict. or
b) WANT people to take NIU because like many on here, they see it as a "gift."

Another thing to consider is a ML bet. This line opens at 7, BGSU is about +200. +4 around +150. At this point many are taking the ML. Also consider FS game. It's hard to run the table in any conference for almost 3 yrs! Especially when it's "perceived" that talent is equal at the top.

Got a set, bet the house and don't question. If you question it, you shouldn't bet it.

(12-03-2013 02:05 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I think statistics have a lot to do with it, if you looked at BG on paper they probably should beat NIU just from a pure offensive/defensive numbers standpoint. That fails to look at level of competition though.

And even that is minimal.

Iowa (5-3 in B1G) better, but not a lot, over Mississippi State (3-5 in SEC).
Tulsa slightly better than Idaho.
Indiana way better than Purdue.
EIU way better than Murray State, but they are both FCS teams.
CMU equivalent to Ohio.
Ball State better, but not a lot, over Buffalo.
Western better, but not a lot, over Miami.

And we both played Toledo, EMU, UMass, Kent State and Akron.

(12-03-2013 02:00 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 01:34 PM)NIU8484 Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 12:21 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 11:59 AM)TheHallTrane Wrote:  NIU -3 makes zero sense, so did NIU -2 against Toledo. We have won back to back MAC Championships and are 12-0. Is Tommy Lee and Bishop still not playing?

P.S. BET THE FARM!

A lot of people agree with you. 89% of the online bets on this game are going to NIU.

Where's your evidence? did you just pull this % out your a**, cause looking at vegasinsiders.com line movement, it's barely moved....if people were POUNDING NIU as you suggest, it would accommodate all that action by jumping to 4-5

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-foot.../time/2000

Yes, I pulled it out of my ass.

As of 12:30, it dropped to 87%.

Thank you for the link sir, too many people throw %'s out without support, just wanted to see where you pulled it from.....

I checked it against vegasinsiders.com, and you are correct! 83% for NIU as of 2:49

(12-03-2013 03:03 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 02:05 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I think statistics have a lot to do with it, if you looked at BG on paper they probably should beat NIU just from a pure offensive/defensive numbers standpoint. That fails to look at level of competition though.

And even that is minimal.

Iowa (5-3 in B1G) better, but not a lot, over Mississippi State (3-5 in SEC).
Tulsa slightly better than Idaho.
Indiana way better than Purdue.
EIU way better than Murray State, but they are both FCS teams.
CMU equivalent to Ohio.
Ball State better, but not a lot, over Buffalo.
Western better, but not a lot, over Miami.

And we both played Toledo, EMU, UMass, Kent State and Akron.

Indiana beat BG worse than they beat Purdue...

Not to give fuel to Redwingtom, but after looking at this closer, the point spread may be not as far off as we think it should be. IMO maybe 4 or 5 would be more realistic but its a good matchup on paper.

(12-03-2013 11:59 AM)TheHallTrane Wrote:  NIU -3 makes zero sense, so did NIU -2 against Toledo. We have won back to back MAC Championships and are 12-0. Is Tommy Lee and Bishop still not playing?

P.S. BET THE FARM!

All just a heads up, I dont think Redwingtom attended BGSU.

(12-03-2013 03:03 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 02:05 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I think statistics have a lot to do with it, if you looked at BG on paper they probably should beat NIU just from a pure offensive/defensive numbers standpoint. That fails to look at level of competition though.

And even that is minimal.

Iowa (5-3 in B1G) better, but not a lot, over Mississippi State (3-5 in SEC).
Tulsa slightly better than Idaho.
Indiana way better than Purdue.
EIU way better than Murray State, but they are both FCS teams.
CMU equivalent to Ohio.
Ball State better, but not a lot, over Buffalo.
Western better, but not a lot, over Miami.

And we both played Toledo, EMU, UMass, Kent State and Akron.

Toledo better then BGSU at their place. NIU better then Toledo at their place. NIU wins this one by at least two touchdowns!

(12-03-2013 03:06 PM)niusfactuary Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 03:03 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 02:05 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I think statistics have a lot to do with it, if you looked at BG on paper they probably should beat NIU just from a pure offensive/defensive numbers standpoint. That fails to look at level of competition though.

And even that is minimal.

Iowa (5-3 in B1G) better, but not a lot, over Mississippi State (3-5 in SEC).
Tulsa slightly better than Idaho.
Indiana way better than Purdue.
EIU way better than Murray State, but they are both FCS teams.
CMU equivalent to Ohio.
Ball State better, but not a lot, over Buffalo.
Western better, but not a lot, over Miami.

And we both played Toledo, EMU, UMass, Kent State and Akron.

Indiana beat BG worse than they beat Purdue...

Really? That's the most logically flawed argument one can make. Purdue was 1-11 while Indiana was 5-7

Just look at the score after 3 quarters, Indiana led 49-16.

(12-03-2013 03:08 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Not to give fuel to Redwingtom, but after looking at this closer, the point spread may be not as far off as we think it should be. IMO maybe 4 or 5 would be more realistic but its a good matchup on paper.

Don't worry...I'm not a bad guy whatsoever. In fact, we can certainly come together in our common hatred for the moronic UT fan. Just look above for proof.

But yes, I did not attend BGSU. I was born in BG and went to nearly every major home sporting event at the U until I was in my mid-20's. If that makes me less a fan of the program, then sobeit.

(12-03-2013 03:18 PM)tampabayrocketfan Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 03:03 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 02:05 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I think statistics have a lot to do with it, if you looked at BG on paper they probably should beat NIU just from a pure offensive/defensive numbers standpoint. That fails to look at level of competition though.

And even that is minimal.

Iowa (5-3 in B1G) better, but not a lot, over Mississippi State (3-5 in SEC).
Tulsa slightly better than Idaho.
Indiana way better than Purdue.
EIU way better than Murray State, but they are both FCS teams.
CMU equivalent to Ohio.
Ball State better, but not a lot, over Buffalo.
Western better, but not a lot, over Miami.

And we both played Toledo, EMU, UMass, Kent State and Akron.

Toledo better then BGSU at their place. NIU better then Toledo at their place. NIU wins this one by at least two touchdowns!

Book it. We all know the best teams always wins every game!

(12-03-2013 01:46 PM)randyfensfanclub1 Wrote:  It's easy. It's all the CFU people betting on BG to make NIU look bad. Voters will see this and adjust votes accordingly. They won't care about the outcome, just know that if the line setters and betters can't make NIU at least a 10..14 point favorite, they should lose votes no matter how many they win by. It hurts their perception. These same people will be betting CFU vs. SMU, to make that line too big. Then if they don't cover, it will be the belief that the AAC is strong, CMU had to overcome on the road.

Come on, didn't you people learn aything by the Fresno/SDST line of (-7) and how low it was and the NIU/EMU being too high (-31)? As MadDawgz stated, the FS bettors loaded up on SDST, EMU to make NIU bad. Well when it was a push and an NIU cover, it backfired. These CFU bettors/fans are SMARTER. Now are doing the OPPOSITE.

I am guessing ESPN also has something to do with it. Guessing they took a few million out of the sluch fund to bet.

One day you will learn the MD logic. I don't get what we don't understand?

It's all a grand conspiracy! People are willing to shovel money into Vegas on bets that they do not actually believe in, just to alter the spread.

(12-03-2013 02:48 PM)MileHighHuskie Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 02:41 PM)clcfball11 Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 02:33 PM)oilgasusa Wrote:  The original spread is what the book believes is the correct one. The beating moves the spread one way or the other. Basically Vegas is giving NIU the home field advantage because they have been there the last 3 years.

Yea...can't be that they believe NIU is 3 points better. Since they're, you know, 3 wins better.

Game is played at a neutral site. Zero chance Vegas gave them 3 points for "home field."

I think these MAC Championship games scare the hell out of Vegas, feels like protect mode to me. At the Mirage several years back, talked to a bookie and he said he thought the MAC was a hard place to make money, felt like anything could happen. I thought he was just blowing smoke but then he started quoting games scores, and I as overall impressed. Hard core gamblers are pretty cut and dry, and that's how he was. He liked NIU over all others in the MAC though, but felt the MAC was just tough to predict.

(12-03-2013 03:22 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 03:08 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Not to give fuel to Redwingtom, but after looking at this closer, the point spread may be not as far off as we think it should be. IMO maybe 4 or 5 would be more realistic but its a good matchup on paper.

Don't worry...I'm not a bad guy whatsoever. In fact, we can certainly come together in our common hatred for the moronic UT fan. Just look above for proof.

But yes, I did not attend BGSU. I was born in BG and went to nearly every major home sporting event at the U until I was in my mid-20's. If that makes me less a fan of the program, then sobeit.

So you are a Sobiet! Well, that certainly explains why you are Red wingtom.

Not sure why everyone is so concerned with lines. If it makes you guys feel better, people are picking NIU like crazy based on the -3 line. 80% of experts and 83% of the public on http://www.covers.com. The over (58) is also getting pounded.

What website do you guys use to place bets?

(12-03-2013 04:42 PM)Enaiu Wrote:  What website do you guys use to place bets?

http://www.bovada.lv/

(12-03-2013 04:43 PM)timxlydon Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 04:42 PM)Enaiu Wrote:  What website do you guys use to place bets?

http://www.bovada.lv/

Wonderful! Thanks.

(12-03-2013 02:28 PM)Enaiu Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 02:27 PM)COHUSKIE Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 11:59 AM)TheHallTrane Wrote:  NIU -3 makes zero sense, so did NIU -2 against Toledo. We have won back to back MAC Championships and are 12-0. Is Tommy Lee and Bishop still not playing?

P.S. BET THE FARM!

Money drives the line. More money going on BG

Where do you guys place your bets at? Ive never done it before.

5dimes.com the best betting website on the internet. I've been using it for over five years, feel free to ask me anything you need to know.

(12-03-2013 07:57 PM)PrideinthePack Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 02:28 PM)Enaiu Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 02:27 PM)COHUSKIE Wrote:  

(12-03-2013 11:59 AM)TheHallTrane Wrote:  NIU -3 makes zero sense, so did NIU -2 against Toledo. We have won back to back MAC Championships and are 12-0. Is Tommy Lee and Bishop still not playing?

P.S. BET THE FARM!

Money drives the line. More money going on BG

Where do you guys place your bets at? Ive never done it before.

5dimes.com the best betting website on the internet. I've been using it for over five years, feel free to ask me anything you need to know.

Just curious. What makes it better than the others?

Just my opinion but here is why I think the Vegas line is -3

1. BG in the last 4 games has given up only 4.5 pts per game on average
2. I think Vegas considers this a Home field advantage to BG based on distance to Detroit that counts as 3 pts usually. So if we were at SF or Huskie Stadium -6
3. NIU in the last 3 MACC has lost by 5, Won by 3 and Won in OT by 7
4, BG Top 15 Defense and on a hot streak.

I think the line should be -6 but I think this game is going to be close, hope I am wrong and we blow them out.

(12-03-2013 08:59 PM)fathuskie Wrote:  Just my opinion but here is why I think the Vegas line is -3

1. BG in the last 4 games has given up only 4.5 pts per game on average
2. I think Vegas considers this a Home field advantage to BG based on distance to Detroit that counts as 3 pts usually. So if we were at SF or Huskie Stadium -6
3. NIU in the last 3 MACC has lost by 5, Won by 3 and Won in OT by 7
4, BG Top 15 Defense and on a hot streak.

I think the line should be -6 but I think this game is going to be close, hope I am wrong and we blow them out.

I do believe you are right that the history of MACC does play a role , that along with BG's pure stats