(12-02-2013 04:31 PM)banker Wrote:  I said it would be a 3-4 point spread most likely at Rice. I honestly think we'll win by 2 TDs or more. Their weakness is middle of the field pass defense. Our strength is in the slot and TE. It's a bad match up for them.

And our weakness is run defense, but ONLY against big backs. Rice' backs are huge and effective. Problem for MU. Of course, our other weakness is TO's on the road (the real root of the "controversy" being the Marshall Fanbase' gut fear reaction to playing ANY road game). This game SMACKS of Middle Tennessee in many ways.

(12-03-2013 11:13 AM)Greg H Wrote:  

(12-02-2013 04:25 PM)Digi368 Wrote:  Rice has a knack of winning close ones. They have done it all season.

Kind of like they did last year, at home, against a much weaker Marshall team?

To be fair, our starting QB injured himself stretching for what would have been the game-winning TD at the end of regulation.

That was one hell of a game. With both teams improved for this year, I'm looking forwards to the rematch. Hope we're healthy for it; Marshall is not a team we can afford to bring anything less than our A-game for.

This has all the makings for a great championship game. Both teams have had good years, have strengths and some weaknesses. Marshall as a 4-5 pt favorite is not ridiculous, but I bet it is close going into the 4th.

(12-02-2013 04:31 PM)banker Wrote:  I said it would be a 3-4 point spread most likely at Rice. I honestly think we'll win by 2 TDs or more. Their weakness is middle of the field pass defense. Our strength is in the slot and TE. It's a bad match up for them.

I'm not sure I'd agree with that. Our defense has been very solid all year long but the only blemishes I've seen are a few games where the DL was moved around a bit and we gave up some rushing yards and then we're susceptible to a long TD pass being burnt by some speed guys. But our DB's are also more than capable of getting a few interceptions.

But in general, I'd say the absolute strength of the defense is the secondary and safeties. We haven't given up more than 200 yards passing and held our opponents to 1 passing TD or less during the last 8 games. Now obviously Marshall has a much better offense than anyone we've played recently.

Our offensive strength is our running game. One of our senior RB's (Peterson) is out for the year now with a knee injury but we have other guys who can step in for him. We do need the OL to play better than they did against Tulane.

It should be a very fun, competitive game. I do know that Cato impressed the heck out of me last year as a freshman. And I hope that he goes pro after this year so that we don't have to see him anymore (or is that not a realistic possibility?).

Our passing stats are most similar to A&M of all the teams you played. They throw a few more times per game but we have one more passing TD and 4 less ints. Very similar yards per completion. They threw for 284, 4 TDs and 0 picks.

Other opponents and their passing rank
Kansas 117
Houston 26 (329, 3, 1)
FAU 92
Tulsa 97
UTSA 53
UTEP 110
UNT 68
La Tech 88
UAB 79
Tulane 104
NMSU 58

So your passing D numbers are good, but you have only played 2 top 50 passing teams. In those two games you gave up an average of over 300 yards, 7 total TDs and only one interception. You lost both those games.

I'd like to reference the last two C-USA Conference Title Games.

2011- USM at Houston-- USM was the underdog.. USM wins title
2012- UCF at Tulsa-- Tulsa was the underdog.. Tulsa wins title
2013- Marshall at Rice--