http://warrennolan.com/football/2013/sos

Dang, Temple and UConn are gonna screw it up.

And our OOC is going to get much tougher, starting next year and especially the year after.

2013:
09/07 - Duke
09/14 - at Middle Tennessee
09/21 - Arkansas State
11/09 - UT Martin

2014:
08/30 - Austin Peay
09/06 - at UCLA
09/20 - Middle Tennessee
09/27 - at Ole Miss

2015:
09/12 - at Kansas
09/19 - at Bowling Green
10/17 - Ole Miss

2016:
09/10 - at Ole Miss
09/17 - Kansas
09/24 - Bowling Green

2017:
UCLA
Tennessee
Ole Miss

2018:
Missouri

2019:
at Missouri

We had Miami in there, too, and they dumped us, and Missouri moved us back, as soon as we beat Arkansas State 31-7, and then MO added Arky State, lol.

I think UCF has it pretty good with BYU, Mizzou and Penn State next year.

Here are my thoughts on scheduling for teams in the American.

If a program is expecting to have a realistic shot at competing for a contract bowl slot, then and only then should that program worry about strength of schedule.

If a program knows that it is rebuilding and won't have a realistic shot at a contract bowl slot for at least a few years, then it should schedule primarily for wins and bowl eligibility. For a program that is down, winning against a cakewalk OOC does a lot more for a program than losing against an insanely hard OOC.

A perfect illustration of this is SMU. SMU should have been bowl eligible by this point in the season but overdoing the OOC part of the schedule might end up costing them a bowl game. All of those OOC losses also do nothing to help conference since beating a 4-0 Mustang team looks way better than beating a 1-3 Mustang team. Cusa, BC, UVa in the ACC do the same thing.

(11-25-2013 01:27 PM)UofLgrad07 Wrote:  Here are my thoughts on scheduling for teams in the American.

If a program is expecting to have a realistic shot at competing for a contract bowl slot, then and only then should that program worry about strength of schedule.

If a program knows that it is rebuilding and won't have a realistic shot at a contract bowl slot for at least a few years, then it should schedule primarily for wins and bowl eligibility. For a program that is down, winning against a cakewalk OOC does a lot more for a program than losing against an insanely hard OOC.

A perfect illustration of this is SMU. SMU should have been bowl eligible by this point in the season but overdoing the OOC part of the schedule might end up costing them a bowl game. All of those OOC losses also do nothing to help conference since beating a 4-0 Mustang team looks way better than beating a 1-3 Mustang team. Cusa, BC, UVa in the ACC do the same thing.

Right and NC State snd UNC should stay way from ECU, and future acc member UL should stay away from UCF. All old big east schools should stay away from everyone but each other.

(11-25-2013 01:27 PM)UofLgrad07 Wrote:  Here are my thoughts on scheduling for teams in the American.

If a program is expecting to have a realistic shot at competing for a contract bowl slot, then and only then should that program worry about strength of schedule.

If a program knows that it is rebuilding and won't have a realistic shot at a contract bowl slot for at least a few years, then it should schedule primarily for wins and bowl eligibility. For a program that is down, winning against a cakewalk OOC does a lot more for a program than losing against an insanely hard OOC.

A perfect illustration of this is SMU. SMU should have been bowl eligible by this point in the season but overdoing the OOC part of the schedule might end up costing them a bowl game. All of those OOC losses also do nothing to help conference since beating a 4-0 Mustang team looks way better than beating a 1-3 Mustang team. Cusa, BC, UVa in the ACC do the same thing.

Well, apparently Louisville is doing a good job of following that theory. A rebuilding Memphis apparently prefers to eliminate FCS games and most G5 games, and schedule mid to lower P5 OOC opponents. I prefer the latter strategy. More fun as a fan when you actually get a win. Sorta like avoiding all those BB cupcakes and playing a few harder teams, like OSU twice, Florida and Gonzaga.

So is this Ville fan saying we should schedule cupcakes? We only lost to y'all by 7 points while we are still rebuilding.

Our AD says 2 winnable G5/FCS (North Texas/?) and 2 Big 12 games (most likely TCU/Baylor) but that is still a few years off. I agree with this philosophy. Certainly hurt us this year over scheduling OOC. Next year we have Baylor, TCU, North Texas and Texas A&M. Hope we get out of the A&M game even though that will be a sell out at our stadium.

This surprised me until I looked at the numbers. Temple and UConn will kill it.

Fuente's OOC schedule philosophy is to schedule one that we should win, one that we should not and two that are probably toss ups.

(11-25-2013 03:33 PM)Geotag Wrote:  So is this Ville fan saying we should schedule cupcakes? We only lost to y'all by the ref's blowing a fumble call.

A slight fix for accuracy.

(11-25-2013 05:30 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 03:33 PM)Geotag Wrote:  So is this Ville fan saying we should schedule cupcakes? We only lost to y'all by the ref's blowing a fumble call.

A slight fix for accuracy.

Lol. I saw the same play in the Carolina Panthers and Dolphins game and they ruled it incomplete

(11-25-2013 04:07 PM)Gray Avenger Wrote:  Fuente's OOC schedule philosophy is to schedule one that we should win, one that we should not and two that are probably toss ups.

And almost exclusively P5 teams, after next year. Bowling Green seems to be the exception, and they are usually no pushover.

(11-25-2013 11:47 AM)TripleA Wrote:  http://warrennolan.com/football/2013/sos

Dang, Temple and UConn are gonna screw it up.

And our OOC is going to get much tougher, starting next year and especially the year after.

2013:
09/07 - Duke
09/14 - at Middle Tennessee
09/21 - Arkansas State
11/09 - UT Martin

2014:
08/30 - Austin Peay
09/06 - at UCLA
09/20 - Middle Tennessee
09/27 - at Ole Miss

2015:
09/12 - at Kansas
09/19 - at Bowling Green
10/17 - Ole Miss

2016:
09/10 - at Ole Miss
09/17 - Kansas
09/24 - Bowling Green

2017:
UCLA
Tennessee
Ole Miss

2018:
Missouri

2019:
at Missouri

We had Miami in there, too, and they dumped us, and Missouri moved us back, as soon as we beat Arkansas State 31-7, and then MO added Arky State, lol.

This is a very respectable schedule, playing higher calibure teams like this has to make a team better. Playing the "Big Boys" tends to raise the underdog level of competition. Hell walking away with a win builds confidence. I would rather get my a$$ handed to me then destroy garbage teams.

I learned golf like this. I played with tour irons and played like crap but got a bunch better quick. I would rather correct my mistakes than play with a club that is more forgiving of my mistakes that happen to still be there. Playing better teams exposes your true weaknesses that can be corrected prior to playing lesser opponents.

(11-25-2013 04:07 PM)Gray Avenger Wrote:  Fuente's OOC schedule philosophy is to schedule one that we should win, one that we should not and two that are probably toss ups.

Where does Middle Tennessee fall on that scale?

(11-25-2013 09:16 PM)Ibleedred Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 04:07 PM)Gray Avenger Wrote:  Fuente's OOC schedule philosophy is to schedule one that we should win, one that we should not and two that are probably toss ups.

Where does Middle Tennessee fall on that scale?

Two coaches and one AD ago.

(11-25-2013 09:19 PM)klg316 Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 09:16 PM)Ibleedred Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 04:07 PM)Gray Avenger Wrote:  Fuente's OOC schedule philosophy is to schedule one that we should win, one that we should not and two that are probably toss ups.

Where does Middle Tennessee fall on that scale?

Two coaches and one AD ago.

So toss up?

(11-25-2013 11:47 AM)TripleA Wrote:  http://warrennolan.com/football/2013/sos

Dang, Temple and UConn are gonna screw it up.

And our OOC is going to get much tougher, starting next year and especially the year after.

2013:
09/07 - Duke
09/14 - at Middle Tennessee
09/21 - Arkansas State
11/09 - UT Martin

2014:
08/30 - Austin Peay
09/06 - at UCLA
09/20 - Middle Tennessee
09/27 - at Ole Miss

2015:
09/12 - at Kansas
09/19 - at Bowling Green
10/17 - Ole Miss

2016:
09/10 - at Ole Miss
09/17 - Kansas
09/24 - Bowling Green

2017:
UCLA
Tennessee
Ole Miss

2018:
Missouri

2019:
at Missouri

We had Miami in there, too, and they dumped us, and Missouri moved us back, as soon as we beat Arkansas State 31-7, and then MO added Arky State, lol.

Those 3 2017 games against UCLA, UT, and Ole Miss are also on 3 consecutive weekends.

(11-25-2013 09:21 PM)Ibleedred Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 09:19 PM)klg316 Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 09:16 PM)Ibleedred Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 04:07 PM)Gray Avenger Wrote:  Fuente's OOC schedule philosophy is to schedule one that we should win, one that we should not and two that are probably toss ups.

Where does Middle Tennessee fall on that scale?

Two coaches and one AD ago.

So toss up?

Toss up is where they fit this year and in the most very recent previous. When they were first added to the schedule, they were considered "wins" by most of us. It just didn't work out that way; they pushed us around pretty good a few times in this series.

(11-25-2013 03:00 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 01:27 PM)UofLgrad07 Wrote:  Here are my thoughts on scheduling for teams in the American.

If a program is expecting to have a realistic shot at competing for a contract bowl slot, then and only then should that program worry about strength of schedule.

If a program knows that it is rebuilding and won't have a realistic shot at a contract bowl slot for at least a few years, then it should schedule primarily for wins and bowl eligibility. For a program that is down, winning against a cakewalk OOC does a lot more for a program than losing against an insanely hard OOC.

A perfect illustration of this is SMU. SMU should have been bowl eligible by this point in the season but overdoing the OOC part of the schedule might end up costing them a bowl game. All of those OOC losses also do nothing to help conference since beating a 4-0 Mustang team looks way better than beating a 1-3 Mustang team. Cusa, BC, UVa in the ACC do the same thing.

Well, apparently Louisville is doing a good job of following that theory. A rebuilding Memphis apparently prefers to eliminate FCS games and most G5 games, and schedule mid to lower P5 OOC opponents. I prefer the latter strategy. More fun as a fan when you actually get a win. Sorta like avoiding all those BB cupcakes and playing a few harder teams, like OSU twice, Florida and Gonzaga.

I don't think there is anything wrong with scheduling P5 teams per say as long as they are the right type of P5 team. For example, Kansas is a P5 team, but they haven't had a winning record since 2008 and they have been absolutely horrible over the last 5 years. That is a game Memphis can and should probably win more than half the time.

As for BGSU, MAC programs cycle between being good and bad fairly regularly so it is next to impossible really know what they'll be like when you actually play them. With that said, BGSU, Austin Peay, and MTSU are all very winnable games so long as Memphis keeps improving. Really the only tough games over the next three years are @UCLA in 2014 and the games against Ole Miss. The schedule doesn't really get crazy until 2017, but that is far enough in the future that Memphis will (hopefully) not be rebuilding at that point.

My argument was that teams should not try to over-schedule while they are rebuilding (SMU, Cuse, UVA, BC, etc regularly do this) and I don't think Memphis has done that whatsoever for the near term.

(11-25-2013 03:33 PM)Geotag Wrote:  So is this Ville fan saying we should schedule cupcakes? We only lost to y'all by 7 points while we are still rebuilding.

I don't know how or why you decided to take my post as smack talk. It wasn't and there is no reason to be over defensive towards my post. Also, the UofL vs. Memphis game is irrelevant to a discussion over OOC scheduling philosophy so I'm not sure why you even brought that up.