(11-11-2013 03:20 PM)Hank Schrader Wrote: (11-11-2013 02:37 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote: (11-11-2013 11:45 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote: Ok, I will play :
Big 10 adds Kansas and Virginia to reach 16.
PAC 12 adds Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to reach 16.
SEC adds West Virginia and Kansas State to reach 16.
ACC adds Connecticut, Cincinnati and Navy (football only) to reach 16.
The Big 12 three (3) left overs are Iowa State, TCU and Baylor. The American nine (9) left overs are Temple, East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida, Central Florida, Tulane, SMU, Houston and Tulsa. I suspect the American absorbs Iowa State, TCU and Baylor. Then raids the MWC for San Diego State, Fresno, Boise and Colorado State, also. American 16 will look like this:
1) Temple
2) East Carolina
3) Memphis
4) Central Florida
5) South Florida
6)Tulane
7) Iowa State
8) Tulsa
9) TCU
10) Baylor
11) SMU
12) Houston
13) Colorado State
14) Boise State
15) Fresno State
16) San Diego State
Now the American has become the 5th Power Conference , while the Big 12 has been dissolved.
The only un answered question is do the Sun Belt, CUSA, MAC and the MWC go to 16 teams, if they do which one of these 4 dies?
The ACC has 15 teams, if three teams are added that makes 18. Why would the ACC add UConn and Cincy instead of just adding Navy as a football only match to ND?
Remember, anytime you talk about adding UConn, BC is a vote against them and FSU and Clemson do not want them for football purposes. It only takes 4 votes to get blackballed. Also the ACC doesn't add a market with UConn - BC, Syracuse, ND, and Duke interest overlaps the UConn media market, and Louisville and ND and especially Kentucky and Ohio State overlap into the Cincy market.
I've indicated before the ACC is more likely to add Iowa State than UConn - well there is a reason for that - Iowa State adds marketfoot print. The only expansion inside the current ACC footprint that could get 12 votes are Penn State, Florida, Georgia, and Navy, if by adding Navy ND played at least 8 conference football games.
You keep saying there is media overlap with adding UConn and ignore the fact that according to the 2013-2014 rankings Hartford's DMA 30th largest DMA in the nation.
The ACC also has a giant hole surrounding NYC, with Boston College being the closest team to it. A UConn addition gets the ACC fans directly in the NYC DMA with UConn's Fairfield County fans. What good is having "overlapping" Duke, Cuse, ND and BC (i strongly question this one) in NYC if the closest those fans have to see there team play on a regular basis is actually Boston.
With that being said, the ACC still will never invite UConn, but your reasoning has some flaws.
I think you are viewing the markets as a zero-sum game. A media market is not a zero sum game. No one team holds an entire market - there are far too many hours of programing to fill and the question becomes one of draw - who is the first, second, third, fourth draw in the market as in most markets, 1-4 gets you seen.
What's on TV related to sports, especially football, is generally the same in NYC markets and Boston markets at the same time.
Meaning, what ESPN, ABC, CBS, FOX or NBC carries in the Northeast is usually the same game. Sometimes it's different but if you look at most ABC/ESPN maps you will see that it's not usually different in the Northeast.
The Hartford donut is fully surrounded by Boston, Providence, NYC, and Albany markets. It's not about fans coming to a game, it's about who will watch and put eyes on the TV set. When it comes to football and basketball, the ACC covers it's interests with BC, ND, and Syracuse, and Duke in basketball.
Nearly every ACC game is televised everywhere. How often is UConn the only team on TV in the Hartford DMA? Think about what a small percentage of time that makes up of the total college football and basketball television schedule.
The ACC does not need UConn or a team in the Hartford DMA to be seen on TV in the Hartford DMA, that already happens. It's a donut hole that is barely a hole for the ACC.
Take into consideration the vast number of hours available for programing. 24 or so hours a week to fill for college football, 40 or so a week for college basketball. One football teams fills 3.5 hours. One basketball team fills at most 6 hours. You don't have to have the top draw in the particular DMA to be seen in the DMA. You don't even need the second top draw. Third or better is nice.
This is the main reason the ACC accepted Louisville a fresh large market for the ACC - the same reason the B10 looked at Maryland.
When you compare the Louisville media footprint to the UConn footprint you get the following:
Louisville adds the entire state of Kentucky to the ACC's media footprint even if that niche is just the second favorite team in the markets. Louisville also adds southside Indiana in the Louisville media area.
Louisville is a media draw in Cincinicatti after Ohio State, Cincy and KY all of that area was new and fresh for the ACC. This is about 5 million people. Hartford's DMA only has about 2.7 million folks. That does not mean that UConn is popular with just the 2.7 million, but outside that region, the ACC has coverage with other schools.
As to the ACC having a donut hole over NYC, that's not accurate - I think that's akin to saying the B10 is not seen in NYC because Penn State is located in PA or that Rutgers is somehow the only college team that is seen in NYC. A donut hole implies lack of access or control of the access by your rival.
The ACC covers NYC just fine with ND, Syracuse, and Duke in basketball and the games are on TV.
A college football watcher can watch 5-6 separate games each week. That takes 10-12 teams to fill those spots.
Once your conference has a hook in the marketplace, you don't need another team in the same marketplace more than you need another team in another marketplace.
Let's look at it this way in NYC you can get a college football game on CBS, NBC, ESPN, and ABC. This is upwards of 8-10 games a week. This means 16-20 teams are involved. In the NYC market the popularity of college teams probably goes something like this:
1. ND
2. Penn State
3. Ohio State
4. Rutgers
5. Syracuse
6. UConn
7. Pitt
8. BC
9. Whoever is number one at the time
10. Whomever else
11.-20 someone needs to fill these spots.
If there are 8-10 games offered on 4 networks how many times that week can ND or Penn State play? Once. Just once.
14-18 more teams must take up the slack.
Perhaps the better question is when will ND, PSU, OSU, Rutgers, Syracuse, Pitt, and BC NOT be seen in NYC during the year? What alignment of the planets would actually keep them off ABC, ESPN, ESPN 2, CBS, NBC, and whatever local broadcast package prevails like YES?
My point was that UConn's geography is poor for the ACC as it relates to BC and Syracuse since BC and Syracuse, in conjunction with ND, give the ACC all the physical footprint the ACC needs in the Northeastern US markets. If the ACC is to expand and that expansion is anyone other than Penn State, or Navy triggering ND to increase its conference slate, that expansion will come west of the current footprint in fresh media markets. Unless of course Florida or Georgia decide for some reason they want to join the ACC.
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Future Conference Realignment
