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BCS week 4 analysis
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stever20 Online
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Post: #21
RE: BCS week 4 analysis
The thing about ratings- in some ways, it's meaningless. If this was next year, and Maryland and Rutgers had gone 7-1 OOC like they did this year, that helps the Big ten out, even if they struggle in conference play. In basketball, Maryland will add to the depth of the Big Ten no doubt. 33rd in Ken Pom right now.
11-10-2013 05:57 PM
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Post: #22
RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 05:41 PM)OrangeCrush22 Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 01:51 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 01:20 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  If Baylor keeps winning they will jump Ohio State. This is the fatal flaw in the B1G expansion plans. When you bring on mediocre football programs it hurts your SOS. BIG already has this problem and that's before Maryland and Rutgers show up.

The B1G expansion plans probably have more to do with money than whether more or fewer B1G teams earn high rankings in the BCS standings.

You're right, their main goal was more money, and they got that, but he's right that athletically the B1G was harmed. The ACC has caught some flak for its expansion, football wise, but compare current ratings... (Note, I'm not including Louisville for the sake of the comparison, they were invited to fill a hole, not add to the conference outright)

Massey football ratings (Nov. 9).

51. Pitt
59. Syracuse

69. Rutgers
73. Maryland

Massey basketball ratings (Preseason).

8. Syracuse
23. Pitt

49. Maryland
105. Rutgers

First, I think you are right in your analysis and in the assumptions based upon them. Let's take it one step further now. Do you believe that taking Maryland and Rutgers makes it more or less likely for the Big 10 to attract its top targets of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, North Carolina, or Virginia? Since as you say they have weakened both their basketball and football product with the latter being weakened the most I would posit that they made it less likely to attract Texas or Oklahoma by making that move first. I would also add that there would be little basketball incentive for North Carolina or Virginia to join and certainly neither of those two would add significantly to the weakening image of Big 10 football.

I could see academics playing a role for a Virginia move and Kansas just simply finding life in the Big 10 preferable. But as far as strengthening a weakened football brand I would suggest that the additions of Maryland and Rutgers would make schools like Oklahoma and Texas even less likely to seriously consider Big 10 membership because even considering the academic advantages that might be touted Texas and Oklahoma are both football first schools.

I would further add that those two moves don't provide adequate allure for basketball first programs within the ACC either.

By thinking markets first Delany may well have made it more difficult to secure the products that do the most to overcome Big 10 weaknesses. It just seems to me that these should have been additions 15 & 16 or even 17 & 18 instead of #'s 13 & 14 and that the hand they were seeking to play has been mislaid.
11-10-2013 06:03 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #23
RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 04:58 PM)AngryAphid Wrote:  Is it possible, that Vanderbilt's eleventh-hour decision to back out of the game
in Columbus is the reason the Buckeyes lose significant rank in SoS?

OSU replaced Vandy with San Diego State. Depending on which computer ranking, Vandy is between 20 and 50 places ahead of SDSU right now. Both teams are 5-4. Massey's composite of computer rankings (many of which aren't used in the BCS standings) has Vandy at #47 and SDSU at #75 this week. http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
11-10-2013 06:54 PM
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Post: #24
RE: BCS week 4 analysis
Vandy should finish 8-4 while SDSU will be at the best 7-5(giving them wins vs Hawaii, UNLV, loss to Boise). I'd kind of guess the gap to increase.
avg gap last week(last one we know all the computers)-
Vandy 54.25
SDSU 82.00

It's very possible that could be the difference.
11-10-2013 07:28 PM
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Post: #25
RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 05:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  This week. Baylor will pass Ohio St next week easily in the computers. Also- it's possible if 1 more computer flips this week that they would be tied in the computers. Illinois is pretty bad for Ohio St, while Baylor plays Texas Tech(still solid in the computers).

It's going to be close between 3-5. A computer or two goes different and any of the 3 could get up to #3. The battle isn't over this weekend at all.

They gained because Baylor beat a top ten team (in name at least) and OSU was idle. Won't matter because I can't see FSU or Bama losing.
11-10-2013 07:37 PM
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Post: #26
RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 07:37 PM)samandrea Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 05:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  This week. Baylor will pass Ohio St next week easily in the computers. Also- it's possible if 1 more computer flips this week that they would be tied in the computers. Illinois is pretty bad for Ohio St, while Baylor plays Texas Tech(still solid in the computers).

It's going to be close between 3-5. A computer or two goes different and any of the 3 could get up to #3. The battle isn't over this weekend at all.

They gained because Baylor beat a top ten team (in name at least) and OSU was idle. Won't matter because I can't see FSU or Bama losing.
They gained pretty much all they needed. Ohio State's problem now is Baylor is close enough, if they(Baylor) blow out the 4 teams on their schedule, it's going to be tough to dock Baylor.

I think if one loses, it'd be Alabama. Auburn and then Missouri or South Carolina- that's 2 pretty tough teams. and remember the last time(I think) Spurrier played Alabama he upset them in South Carolina. Also, just as important now, if Alabama loses one of those games, they won't be SEC champ, which pretty much takes them out as any threat to get into the title game.
11-10-2013 07:46 PM
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Post: #27
RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 07:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 07:37 PM)samandrea Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 05:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  This week. Baylor will pass Ohio St next week easily in the computers. Also- it's possible if 1 more computer flips this week that they would be tied in the computers. Illinois is pretty bad for Ohio St, while Baylor plays Texas Tech(still solid in the computers).

It's going to be close between 3-5. A computer or two goes different and any of the 3 could get up to #3. The battle isn't over this weekend at all.

They gained because Baylor beat a top ten team (in name at least) and OSU was idle. Won't matter because I can't see FSU or Bama losing.
They gained pretty much all they needed. Ohio State's problem now is Baylor is close enough, if they(Baylor) blow out the 4 teams on their schedule, it's going to be tough to dock Baylor.

I think if one loses, it'd be Alabama. Auburn and then Missouri or South Carolina- that's 2 pretty tough teams. and remember the last time(I think) Spurrier played Alabama he upset them in South Carolina. Also, just as important now, if Alabama loses one of those games, they won't be SEC champ, which pretty much takes them out as any threat to get into the title game.

UGA's still got a chance to win the east.
11-10-2013 09:29 PM
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Post: #28
RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 09:29 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 07:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 07:37 PM)samandrea Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 05:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  This week. Baylor will pass Ohio St next week easily in the computers. Also- it's possible if 1 more computer flips this week that they would be tied in the computers. Illinois is pretty bad for Ohio St, while Baylor plays Texas Tech(still solid in the computers).

It's going to be close between 3-5. A computer or two goes different and any of the 3 could get up to #3. The battle isn't over this weekend at all.

They gained because Baylor beat a top ten team (in name at least) and OSU was idle. Won't matter because I can't see FSU or Bama losing.
They gained pretty much all they needed. Ohio State's problem now is Baylor is close enough, if they(Baylor) blow out the 4 teams on their schedule, it's going to be tough to dock Baylor.

I think if one loses, it'd be Alabama. Auburn and then Missouri or South Carolina- that's 2 pretty tough teams. and remember the last time(I think) Spurrier played Alabama he upset them in South Carolina. Also, just as important now, if Alabama loses one of those games, they won't be SEC champ, which pretty much takes them out as any threat to get into the title game.

UGA's still got a chance to win the east.

I think the only way Georgia wins the east is if Missouri loses 2 games. 3 way tie doesn't help them as all would be 1-1, but then division record I believe is next, and Missouri would have only the 1 loss to South Carolina(their last 2 games are Mississippi, Texas A&M). It's a chance, but it's a really small chance for Georgia.
11-10-2013 09:35 PM
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Post: #29
RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 09:35 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 09:29 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 07:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 07:37 PM)samandrea Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 05:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  This week. Baylor will pass Ohio St next week easily in the computers. Also- it's possible if 1 more computer flips this week that they would be tied in the computers. Illinois is pretty bad for Ohio St, while Baylor plays Texas Tech(still solid in the computers).

It's going to be close between 3-5. A computer or two goes different and any of the 3 could get up to #3. The battle isn't over this weekend at all.

They gained because Baylor beat a top ten team (in name at least) and OSU was idle. Won't matter because I can't see FSU or Bama losing.
They gained pretty much all they needed. Ohio State's problem now is Baylor is close enough, if they(Baylor) blow out the 4 teams on their schedule, it's going to be tough to dock Baylor.

I think if one loses, it'd be Alabama. Auburn and then Missouri or South Carolina- that's 2 pretty tough teams. and remember the last time(I think) Spurrier played Alabama he upset them in South Carolina. Also, just as important now, if Alabama loses one of those games, they won't be SEC champ, which pretty much takes them out as any threat to get into the title game.

UGA's still got a chance to win the east.

I think the only way Georgia wins the east is if Missouri loses 2 games. 3 way tie doesn't help them as all would be 1-1, but then division record I believe is next, and Missouri would have only the 1 loss to South Carolina(their last 2 games are Mississippi, Texas A&M). It's a chance, but it's a really small chance for Georgia.

Ole Miss and A&M will not be easy games. Not sure about the 3 way tie-breaker, but I do think it favors Mizzou.
11-10-2013 09:48 PM
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Post: #30
RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 09:48 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 09:35 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 09:29 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 07:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 07:37 PM)samandrea Wrote:  They gained because Baylor beat a top ten team (in name at least) and OSU was idle. Won't matter because I can't see FSU or Bama losing.
They gained pretty much all they needed. Ohio State's problem now is Baylor is close enough, if they(Baylor) blow out the 4 teams on their schedule, it's going to be tough to dock Baylor.

I think if one loses, it'd be Alabama. Auburn and then Missouri or South Carolina- that's 2 pretty tough teams. and remember the last time(I think) Spurrier played Alabama he upset them in South Carolina. Also, just as important now, if Alabama loses one of those games, they won't be SEC champ, which pretty much takes them out as any threat to get into the title game.

UGA's still got a chance to win the east.

I think the only way Georgia wins the east is if Missouri loses 2 games. 3 way tie doesn't help them as all would be 1-1, but then division record I believe is next, and Missouri would have only the 1 loss to South Carolina(their last 2 games are Mississippi, Texas A&M). It's a chance, but it's a really small chance for Georgia.

Ole Miss and A&M will not be easy games. Not sure about the 3 way tie-breaker, but I do think it favors Mizzou.

No doubt, but odds are really good that doesn't happen. Lets say this- the biggest Georgia fans this weekend- Missouri.
11-10-2013 09:55 PM
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