Knights_of_UCF
Heisman
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RE: Playoff Money split
(11-05-2013 02:37 PM)quo vadis Wrote: (11-05-2013 01:44 PM)Knights_of_UCF Wrote: (11-05-2013 01:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote: (11-05-2013 12:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: (11-05-2013 11:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote: The major recent changes in the structure of college athletics - the BCS in 1998 and the playoffs beginning next year - have made one thing clear: While the have-nots benefit from these changes in an absolute sense, we fall further behind in a relative sense, compared to the haves. In other words, the pie gets bigger for everyone, but it gets only marginally bigger for have-nots but a whopping-lot bigger for the haves, who were already getting a much bigger share to begin with.
Furthermore, the only institutions that have seen their position improve dramatically* are individual schools, namely the handful of schools such as UL, WVU, Pitt, TCU, and Rutgers that got promoted from the G5 to the P5.
In contrast, no conference has ever improved its position via these changes. The BCS saw no changes in conference power at all, and the only conference movement prompted by the new playoffs system was negative - the Big East getting demoted from the AQ ranks to the G5 ranks.
I think the lesson to be drawn is clear: Any school in the G5 category has only one realistic shot to get in the P5, namely to make themselves attractive enough to be selected by a P5 conference should that conference feel the need to expand. That means doing whatever you can - getting better on the field, improving your fan support, upgrading your facilities, etc. to make yourself look as good as possible to P5 and their network partner.
Any hopes that our schools will join the big-time via the conference route, by the AAC being promoted by the P5 into their club, is completely unrealistic thinking.
* some other schools saw their positions improve marginally, by getting promoted from a lesser G5 to a slightly better one, like say Houston and UCF.
I think this is true---however, the main reason is that the P-5 poach the best teams from any emerging G-5 conference. Once the P-5 are full---can a G-5 conference build itself up when its progress is not impeded by P-5 raids? If a G-5 conference can build both attendance and on field performance---there is no reason why a G-5 conference could not grow itself organically. Say a G-5 conference can build itself to an average of 40-45K attendance and have 2 top-20 teams a year in their lineup----that's comparable to the Big Easts days as a P-5 conference. I'd say that level could be obtained in a decade or two if a conference has enough teams committed to success.
I think that in principle what you are saying is true: There is nothing that could prevent all the AAC schools from raising their attendance to 50,000+ per year and winning enough games to place two teams in the top 20 year after year.
I just don't think it is likely, because it has never happened before, and I think i know why: Most G5 schools have a core of fans that will come out and support the team no matter what. They even show up for the games against FCS teams. But, this number is always small, around 15k to 20k. The other fans won't come out unless the team is winning and against attractive opponents. But G5 schools do not play schedules that are attractive enough to draw fans in large enough numbers. As much as I hate to admit it, USF is not going to draw 55,000 fans in the stands for games against Tulsa, Temple, and Tulane, it just isn't happening. I don't think it happens elsewhere, either.
Couple that with big advantage in facilities and coaching/recruiting budgets the P5 will have, and it seems unlikely to me that we will be able to consistently compete on the field at that level either - at least not as a conference.
Now a given school, well, that's another matter.
don't need all AAC teams to average 50K. Only need a handful. No P5 league has every team average 50K. ACC has more than a few teams averaging less, and that is with powerhouse teams like FSU and clemson coming to town and bringing fans to fill their stadiums.
If we can get 5-6 teams above 50K, and 3-4 more above 40K, it really won't matter what the last 3-4 teams are doing. I'd almost prefer to have 3-4 doormats to give top teams someone to pad their stats against. Every conference needs a duke, vandy, uva, colorado etc.
I agree with you that this is a likely scenario - a handful of teams at the top can reach that 50k attendance level, while others will fall far short.
But what this will lead to is exactly what we saw between 2009 - 2012 with realignment: Those handful of schools that boost their fan support to big-time level will likely get plucked up by P5 conferences looking to expand. What won't happen is the conference as a whole getting promoted.
For that reason, I agree that it is a good thing if some AAC schools become doormats, as long as one of those isn't USF. Because that means that if P5 come calling, my school will have fewer viable competitors for the available P5 slots.
good points. In the meantime before the flagships get picked, it'll help raise the profile of the entire league while were still here.
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