I don't think being #3, #4, or #5 in the CAA matters as much as people think. It's more about who you've played, beaten, and lost to. I seem to recall instances instances in the past where a CAA team lower in the standings made it in over a team higher. Just last year there were four 6-2 teams and two made it in while two did not. The CAA site lists Richmond as the #2 team and they were left out.

So maybe we finish 5th and make it or finish 4th and don't. It will be because the committee judges our overall resume to be stronger or weaker than other teams.

One intangible that _might_ work in our favor is that we have strong attendance numbers for FCS. Money is always a factor. Of course, that will depend on whether or not they think we'll screw up the bid. Again.

We had two conference teams with 6-2 CAA records not make the playoffs last year. If we go 8-4, it means we are 5-3 in the CAA and likely in fifth place. I don't know how anyone can feel confident that would get us in. The likelihood has to be pretty small.

JMU needs to win out to make it. If they don't, they need a lot of help from other teams.

TU appears to be one dimensional and makes a lot of mistakes i.e. turnovers. West is a great back and has a very good offensive line. I believe W&M will stop him cold and win that game. JMU historically has done well against good running teams.

At 4-4, TU could be the ones left out again this year. I don't see UD losing more than one game nor W&M losing more than one either. My updated prediction is Maine, UD & W&M finishing one two and three. JMU will be fighting TU for the forth spot and a trip to the playoffs.

CAA will be unlikely to get 4 teams in this year unless a lot of dominoes fall the right way. Too many teams out there with resumes in the different conferences. Southland conference with McNeese St and Sam Houston St. is a lock to get 2 bids, and very possibly a 3rd bid. The best news is that good teams from the MVFC are beating up on each other quite a lot and a five loss SIU might be better than half the playoff field, but no way they'd get in with that many losses (much less whether all their games were D-I - too lazy to look it up at the moment).

MEAC, as stated earlier in the thread, has a real potential for snatching a second bid. NCAA would love to be able to do that for them I am sure.

CAA had a lackluster performance in OOC schedules and vs. FBS this year compared to other conferences; as a group we are not playing to the level that the CAA was known for a few years ago.

W&M or Towson need to fall apart. I'd put my money on Towson losing compared to W&M. Defense wins championships and I think everyone can agree that they have the best (i.e., most consistent) defense in the conference.

So this talk of 5 bids - please forget about it. Not gonna happen, even in the expanded field of 20.

(11-04-2013 02:12 PM)Yesolitis Wrote:  So this talk of 5 bids - please forget about it. Not gonna happen, even in the expanded field of 20.

Maybe if the field had 24 teams it could happen.

We need a win today and then to me, let's root for Delaware over W&M.

That will put us in a better position.

A loss to UNH puts us in 6th place.

A win today knocks out UNH and a loss by W&M to Delaware leaves them with having to win out.

Go Dukes.......

Also want coastal over chuck south today.

Any other games we should be monitoring?

(11-04-2013 09:09 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  i updated my spreadsheet I keep for the remaining schedules and many teams on this list will knock each other off and eliminate them. It's the unexpected upsets that will make the difference and narrow things even more. By my count, it looks like it's going to come down to 23 teams for those 20 spots.

in the mix will be:

4 teams from Big Sky (almost a lock they get 4 based on remaining schedules)

2 from Big South (really need Chuck South to crap the bed, because CCU is going to get in)

5 from CAA (maine, towson and delaware will get in. W&M, JMU and UNH will fight for potentially 2 more spots. The team in most danger of falling back is W&M. they play at UD, towson at home and at richmond. they lose 2 of 3, and that's 5 losses. Bye bye nerds. As sickening as it sounds, we should probably root hard for Chickens and Ticks in the coming weeks)

2 from MEAC (BCC will get auto bid. Unfortunately, SC State has an easy schedule remaining. I see them in at 9-3)

2 from MVC (pretty much a lock. NDSU and YSU in. Maybe SoIllinois can win out and get in the discussion. Everyone else will be out barring major upsets)

3 from OVC (most of the teams in the mix play each other. So half of the 6 with 4 or less losses, will likely end up with 5. But by the same token, half of them will end up with 4 or less losses as well. Too early to picture how this shakes up but I can't see more than 3)

2 from SoCon (possible to get 3. Best bet is to root against our old pal Durden and Chatty. They play the other 2 contenders the next 2 weeks and finish up with Alabama, a guaranteed loss. If they lose to both Samford and Wofford the next 2 weeks, they'll end up with 5 losses and be out. But that also pretty much locks in Samford and Wofford to the playoffs. if Chatty wins 1, all 3 could get in)

3 from Southland (McNeese St has easy schedule remaining. They'll get in. SE LA and Sam Houston both should end up with no more than 4 losses, barring a major upset. So the SL will have 3 teams very much in the mix. The kicker for us is, both SELa (won at Samford and at Mcneese) and SHS (beat Eastern Washington) have better wins then us. So they probably both get in at 8-4 over an 8-4 JMU team)


right now, the 3 teams we need to really root against are:

Chattanooga
Chuck South
W&M

Again, agree with you on W&M.

It looks to me that we should actually root for Chattanooga to knock off Samford and Wofford the next 2 weeks, which may help the SoCon be a one-bid conference. Root against Samford and Wofford.

Looks to me that the Big South will get 2 in.

Is ESPN right that Charleston Southern is playing 13 games? I am sure that has been discussed, but I missed that. We should root against them.

(11-09-2013 11:06 AM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote:  Also want coastal over chuck south today.

Any other games we should be monitoring?

What I can put together, these are results that will help:

Memphis over UT-Martin (Memphis is a 1 win FBS team)
Furman over Samford
NDSU over Illinois State
Indiana State over SDSU (not holding my breath on that one)
Nicholls State over SHSU
Central Ark over SE Louisiana
SF Austin over McNeese