(11-04-2013 01:16 PM)BDKJMU Wrote: (11-04-2013 12:27 PM)JMU_Newbill Wrote: (11-04-2013 12:20 PM)DooX Wrote: I agree that 8-4 should get us in. OTOH, it will be a weak 8-4. Villanova is out of the hunt and if we beat UNH then they are out of it too. A loss to Towson would mean that we have no wins against play-off teams and depending on how UNH & Villanova finish the season possibly no wins against teams with a winning record.
IMO, I don't think 8-4 gets us in if we are sitting at #5 in the CAA behind Towson and W&M. I think in that scenario, we are the #25 playoff team.
I think 8-4 (5-3) gets us in if W&M loses to Delaware and Towson (or any two of their remaining three games) and finishes at 7-5 (4-4) since that makes us the #4 CAA team.
I think 8-4 (5-3) gets us in if Towson loses to W&M and us and finishes at 8-4 (4-4) since that would make us the #4 CAA team.
9-3 gets us in no questions asked.
Maybe. This is what I see looking at the standings, and who still has to play who, taking note of Div II games:
Big Sky: 4
CAA: 4
MVFC: 2
So-Con: 2
Southland: 3
Patriot: 2
OVC: 2
Big South: 1 (CSU is 9-1, but played 2 Div II, 7-1 vs Div I. 3 of their 4 toughest games are coming up, @ CCU, @ GW, Liberty. CSU has barely beaten a lot of awful teams, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop those last 3 games to finish 9-4, 7-4 vs Div I, which would mean no playoffs.
MEAC: 1 (An 8-4 5th CAA would have a much stronger resume than an 8-3 (vs Div I) SC State).
NEC: 1
Pioneer: 1
Thats 23 teams....
Think its better than 50/50 an 8-4 JMU as a 5th CAA team would get in. Thinks its a near lock that an 8-4 JMU as a 4th CAA team would get in. As has already been said, have to root for the Eberts to lose 2 of their last 3 (@ UD, TU, UR).
not sure how you think its 50/50 an 8-4 JMU team in 5th place of the CAA gets in over 4 of those teams in your 23 listed.
where do the 4 come from?
Big sky? there's 1, but they are a lock for at least 3
MVC? Nope. NDSU and YSU are virtual locks
Southland? maybe 1 here. But as I noted before, all 3 of the teams likely to be in contention have better wins and resumes than we would
SoCon? Maybe 1
Patriot? we won't get in over Fordham and they'll get a 2nd due to auto bid
OVC? Maybe 1
so of the at large leagues, if we are 5th in the CAA pecking order, which we will be if W&M doesn't fall apart, we are banking on maybe's in
ALL 4 of the available leagues that could lose a spot from your list:
Big Sky (would be 5th placed CAA over 4th place Big Sky)
Southland (5th CAA over 3rd SL)
SoCon (5th CAA over 2nd SoCon)
OVC (5th CAA over 3rd OVC)
I think it might be a 5-10% chance if we are 8-4 and behind 3 teams in the league that beat us (Towson, W&M, UD)
if you think about it, if W&M wins this weekend...if we are going to be 8-4 and getting in, we might be better off losing to UNH and beating Towson....versus the other way around that most of us assume.....to knock Towson back and hold the advantage over them. (UNH will lose to Maine and get to 5 losses)