Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
My playoff update
Author Message
Bookmark and Share
BDKJMU Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 9,737
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 47
I Root For: James Madison
Location:
Post: #21
RE: My playoff update
(11-04-2013 10:38 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 10:31 AM)JMU_71 Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 09:36 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 09:30 AM)PGJMU Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 09:09 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  i updated my spreadsheet I keep for the remaining schedules and many teams on this list will knock each other off and eliminate them. It's the unexpected upsets that will make the difference and narrow things even more. By my count, it looks like it's going to come down to 23 teams for those 20 spots.

in the mix will be:

4 teams from Big Sky (almost a lock they get 4 based on remaining schedules)

2 from Big South (really need Chuck South to crap the bed, because CCU is going to get in)

5 from CAA (maine, towson and delaware will get in. W&M, JMU and UNH will fight for potentially 2 more spots. The team in most danger of falling back is W&M. they play at UD, towson at home and at richmond. they lose 2 of 3, and that's 5 losses. Bye bye nerds. As sickening as it sounds, we should probably root hard for Chickens and Ticks in the coming weeks)

2 from MEAC (BCC will get auto bid. Unfortunately, SC State has an easy schedule remaining. I see them in at 9-3)

2 from MVC (pretty much a lock. NDSU and YSU in. Maybe SoIllinois can win out and get in the discussion. Everyone else will be out barring major upsets)

3 from OVC (most of the teams in the mix play each other. So half of the 6 with 4 or less losses, will likely end up with 5. But by the same token, half of them will end up with 4 or less losses as well. Too early to picture how this shakes up but I can't see more than 3)

2 from SoCon (possible to get 3. Best bet is to root against our old pal Durden and Chatty. They play the other 2 contenders the next 2 weeks and finish up with Alabama, a guaranteed loss. If they lose to both Samford and Wofford the next 2 weeks, they'll end up with 5 losses and be out. But that also pretty much locks in Samford and Wofford to the playoffs. if Chatty wins 1, all 3 could get in)

3 from Southland (McNeese St has easy schedule remaining. They'll get in. SE LA and Sam Houston both should end up with no more than 4 losses, barring a major upset. So the SL will have 3 teams very much in the mix. The kicker for us is, both SELa (won at Samford and at Mcneese) and SHS (beat Eastern Washington) have better wins then us. So they probably both get in at 8-4 over an 8-4 JMU team)


right now, the 3 teams we need to really root against are:

Chattanooga
Chuck South
W&M

isn't Durden at Chatty? wow, that would be something if they got in and we didn't.

04-cheers
It'd be even more intriguing if we play them in the playoffs.

the way its shaping up right now, we'll have no shortage of regional candidates to get paired up with....many of whom we've seen before.

Eastern Kentucky
Youngstown St
Coastal Carolina
Wofford

Another conference that hasn't won a playoff game since the 1990s. It will likely take 9 DIV I wins out of that conference to get an at large.

-EIU is the mortal lock, seed.

EKU is 6-3/4-1, but still has 3 of the other 6, @ JSU, UTM, @ Murray State. They likely have to run the table to get to 9-3, highly unlikely. Again, 8-4 out of the OVC won't get in over an 8-4 out of the CAA.

TSU is 7-3/4-2, 6-3 vs Div I. They played a Div II, so the best they can finish vs Div I is 8-3. They still have 0-9 Austin Peak and 5-4 Murray State. If they win both of those I don't think 8-3 vs Div I won't get them in as a 3rd OVC team over an 8-4 CAA.

TM is 6-3/4-2, but they still have left @ I-A Memphis, @ EKU, EIU. They'll lose at least 2 of those. Maybe all 3. Anyway, they'll end up 7-5 or 6-6.

JSU is 7-2/3-2. But they have left EKU, @EIU, SEMO. They have the best chance of finishing 9-3, 9 Div I wins, and being the 2nd OVC team.

Murray State is 5-4/3-2. They played a Div II/NAIA, so the best they can finish vs Div I is 7-4. But they have left EIU, @ TST, EKU. Almost no chance of them even getting to 7 Div I wins.

I don't see the OVC getting 3 in. 2 is much more likely....
11-04-2013 12:00 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JMad03 Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 8,582
Joined: Mar 2013
Reputation: 140
I Root For: James Madison
Location: Radford, VA
Post: #22
RE: My playoff update
Win 2 of 3 and we're in IMO. I don't feel good about @Towson unless they tank it in before playoffs start (which I don't think is how Abrose is as a coach).
Take care of business and win 3.
11-04-2013 12:06 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
All Dukes_All Day Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,326
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 62
I Root For: JMU, Pitt
Location:
Post: #23
RE: My playoff update
(11-04-2013 12:06 PM)JMad03 Wrote:  Win 2 of 3 and we're in IMO. I don't feel good about @Towson unless they tank it in before playoffs start (which I don't think is how Abrose is as a coach).
Take care of business and win 3.

I'm starting to get this feeling that Towson isn't as good as we had been hyping them to be all year....I think everyone got high on them becasue they beat a uconn team that likely wouldn't sniff the FCS playoffs this year.

Plus, they've already lost twice at home.
11-04-2013 12:14 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Duke Dawg Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 9,192
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 130
I Root For: James Madison
Location:
Post: #24
RE: My playoff update
(11-04-2013 12:14 PM)All Dukes_All Day Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 12:06 PM)JMad03 Wrote:  Win 2 of 3 and we're in IMO. I don't feel good about @Towson unless they tank it in before playoffs start (which I don't think is how Abrose is as a coach).
Take care of business and win 3.

I'm starting to get this feeling that Towson isn't as good as we had been hyping them to be all year....I think everyone got high on them becasue they beat a uconn team that likely wouldn't sniff the FCS playoffs this year.

Plus, they've already lost twice at home.

maybe. but they haven't scored fewer than 31 points in any game this year. a lot better than we've done.
11-04-2013 12:18 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
DooX Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,701
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 30
I Root For: JMU
Location: Sneaking Up Behind U
Post: #25
RE: My playoff update
I agree that 8-4 should get us in. OTOH, it will be a weak 8-4. Villanova is out of the hunt and if we beat UNH then they are out of it too. A loss to Towson would mean that we have no wins against play-off teams and depending on how UNH & Villanova finish the season possibly no wins against teams with a winning record.
11-04-2013 12:20 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JMU_Newbill Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,761
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 45
I Root For: JMU & Whoever Plays VT
Location: Richmond, VA
Post: #26
RE: My playoff update
We will know a lot more about Towson after they play W&M. They've beaten a bunch of bad teams (like us) and have lost to UD (like us) and Villanova (not like us). They've scored at least 30 points in every game they have played.

It's not unlikely at all for the Towson vs. JMU game to be a play-in game.
11-04-2013 12:21 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JMU_Newbill Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,761
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 45
I Root For: JMU & Whoever Plays VT
Location: Richmond, VA
Post: #27
RE: My playoff update
(11-04-2013 12:20 PM)DooX Wrote:  I agree that 8-4 should get us in. OTOH, it will be a weak 8-4. Villanova is out of the hunt and if we beat UNH then they are out of it too. A loss to Towson would mean that we have no wins against play-off teams and depending on how UNH & Villanova finish the season possibly no wins against teams with a winning record.

IMO, I don't think 8-4 gets us in if we are sitting at #5 in the CAA behind Towson and W&M. I think in that scenario, we are the #25 playoff team.

I think 8-4 (5-3) gets us in if W&M loses to Delaware and Towson (or any two of their remaining three games) and finishes at 7-5 (4-4) since that makes us the #4 CAA team.

I think 8-4 (5-3) gets us in if Towson loses to W&M and us and finishes at 8-4 (4-4) since that would make us the #4 CAA team.

9-3 gets us in no questions asked.
(This post was last modified: 11-04-2013 12:30 PM by JMU_Newbill.)
11-04-2013 12:27 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Duke Dawg Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 9,192
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 130
I Root For: James Madison
Location:
Post: #28
RE: My playoff update
(11-04-2013 12:27 PM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 12:20 PM)DooX Wrote:  I agree that 8-4 should get us in. OTOH, it will be a weak 8-4. Villanova is out of the hunt and if we beat UNH then they are out of it too. A loss to Towson would mean that we have no wins against play-off teams and depending on how UNH & Villanova finish the season possibly no wins against teams with a winning record.

IMO, I don't think 8-4 gets us in if we are sitting at #5 in the CAA behind Towson and W&M. I think in that scenario, we are the #25 playoff team.

I think 8-4 (5-3) gets us in if W&M loses to Delaware and Towson (or any two of their remaining three games) and finishes at 7-5 (4-4) since that makes us the #4 CAA team.

I think 8-4 (5-3) gets us in if Towson loses to W&M and us and finishes at 8-4 (4-4) since that would make us the #4 CAA team.

9-3 gets us in no questions asked.

that's what I think too. Being #5 in the CAA this year likely won't cut it. We'd need some teams to collapse like in 2011 when Indiana St and I believe one other MVC team (YSU?) choked like a dog on the final day and put us in.
(This post was last modified: 11-04-2013 12:33 PM by Duke Dawg.)
11-04-2013 12:33 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
capn kitt Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 339
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 2
I Root For: JMU
Location: Virginia Beach
Post: #29
RE: My playoff update
(11-04-2013 12:21 PM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  We will know a lot more about Towson after they play W&M. They've beaten a bunch of bad teams (like us) and have lost to UD (like us) and Villanova (not like us). They've scored at least 30 points in every game they have played.

It's not unlikely at all for the Towson vs. JMU game to be a play-in game.

Towson can score in bunches, and that gets you noticed, and gives the perception (probably rightly) that you are very good. Against a good UNH team: 730 yards of offense and 41 unanswered points!
11-04-2013 12:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
PurpleStreamers Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,316
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 13
I Root For: Dukes
Location: D-Lot
Post: #30
RE: My playoff update
(11-04-2013 12:20 PM)DooX Wrote:  I agree that 8-4 should get us in. OTOH, it will be a weak 8-4. Villanova is out of the hunt and if we beat UNH then they are out of it too. A loss to Towson would mean that we have no wins against play-off teams and depending on how UNH & Villanova finish the season possibly no wins against teams with a winning record.

Just picking nits here and obviously still not meaningful, but CCSU is actually in decent position to win the NEC autobid.
11-04-2013 12:40 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
PGJMU Offline
Special Teams
*

Posts: 841
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 22
I Root For: JMU Dukes
Location:
Post: #31
RE: My playoff update
(11-04-2013 12:27 PM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 12:20 PM)DooX Wrote:  I agree that 8-4 should get us in. OTOH, it will be a weak 8-4. Villanova is out of the hunt and if we beat UNH then they are out of it too. A loss to Towson would mean that we have no wins against play-off teams and depending on how UNH & Villanova finish the season possibly no wins against teams with a winning record.

IMO, I don't think 8-4 gets us in if we are sitting at #5 in the CAA behind Towson and W&M. I think in that scenario, we are the #25 playoff team.

I think 8-4 (5-3) gets us in if W&M loses to Delaware and Towson (or any two of their remaining three games) and finishes at 7-5 (4-4) since that makes us the #4 CAA team.

I think 8-4 (5-3) gets us in if Towson loses to W&M and us and finishes at 8-4 (4-4) since that would make us the #4 CAA team.

9-3 gets us in no questions asked.

Newbill nails it.

Wow, amazing what a win over Villanova does for our psyche. Last week we are staring at 6-6, now we are talking 9-3.
11-04-2013 12:47 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Dukes94 Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,505
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 219
I Root For: James Madison
Location: Roanoke, VA
Post: #32
RE: My playoff update
(11-04-2013 12:47 PM)PGJMU Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 12:27 PM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 12:20 PM)DooX Wrote:  I agree that 8-4 should get us in. OTOH, it will be a weak 8-4. Villanova is out of the hunt and if we beat UNH then they are out of it too. A loss to Towson would mean that we have no wins against play-off teams and depending on how UNH & Villanova finish the season possibly no wins against teams with a winning record.

IMO, I don't think 8-4 gets us in if we are sitting at #5 in the CAA behind Towson and W&M. I think in that scenario, we are the #25 playoff team.

I think 8-4 (5-3) gets us in if W&M loses to Delaware and Towson (or any two of their remaining three games) and finishes at 7-5 (4-4) since that makes us the #4 CAA team.

I think 8-4 (5-3) gets us in if Towson loses to W&M and us and finishes at 8-4 (4-4) since that would make us the #4 CAA team.

9-3 gets us in no questions asked.

Newbill nails it.

Wow, amazing what a win over Villanova does for our psyche. Last week we are staring at 6-6, now we are talking 9-3.

I never thought we'd be 6-6. I don't think we'll lose on the road to NH. I mean, we do have some pride. These guys want a road win after the UD and W&M debacles. I think they all know NH on the road is the place to get it.

I said in another thread, the next three weeks are the three-way test of a good team: Beat a decent team on the road. Beat the patsy at home without looking ahead to the next game. And beat the good team on the road. Good teams should do all those things.

I'm not afraid of being #5 in the CAA in terms of making the playoffs. It's a very top/bottom league this year. If we end up in fourth or fifth due to a tiebreaker with UD or W&M, it won't be like we're Richmond or Albany. It just reflects a slugfest at the top of the conference.
11-04-2013 01:14 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
BDKJMU Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 9,737
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 47
I Root For: James Madison
Location:
Post: #33
RE: My playoff update
(11-04-2013 12:27 PM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 12:20 PM)DooX Wrote:  I agree that 8-4 should get us in. OTOH, it will be a weak 8-4. Villanova is out of the hunt and if we beat UNH then they are out of it too. A loss to Towson would mean that we have no wins against play-off teams and depending on how UNH & Villanova finish the season possibly no wins against teams with a winning record.

IMO, I don't think 8-4 gets us in if we are sitting at #5 in the CAA behind Towson and W&M. I think in that scenario, we are the #25 playoff team.

I think 8-4 (5-3) gets us in if W&M loses to Delaware and Towson (or any two of their remaining three games) and finishes at 7-5 (4-4) since that makes us the #4 CAA team.

I think 8-4 (5-3) gets us in if Towson loses to W&M and us and finishes at 8-4 (4-4) since that would make us the #4 CAA team.

9-3 gets us in no questions asked.

Maybe. This is what I see looking at the standings, and who still has to play who, taking note of Div II games:

Big Sky: 4
CAA: 4
MVFC: 2
So-Con: 2
Southland: 3
Patriot: 2
OVC: 2
Big South: 1 (CSU is 9-1, but played 2 Div II, 7-1 vs Div I. 3 of their 4 toughest games are coming up, @ CCU, @ GW, Liberty. CSU has barely beaten a lot of awful teams, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop those last 3 games to finish 9-4, 7-4 vs Div I, which would mean no playoffs.
MEAC: 1 (An 8-4 5th CAA would have a much stronger resume than an 8-3 (vs Div I) SC State).
NEC: 1
Pioneer: 1

Thats 23 teams....

Think its better than 50/50 an 8-4 JMU as a 5th CAA team would get in. Thinks its a near lock that an 8-4 JMU as a 4th CAA team would get in. As has already been said, have to root for the Eberts to lose 2 of their last 3 (@ UD, TU, UR).
11-04-2013 01:16 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Duke Dawg Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 9,192
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 130
I Root For: James Madison
Location:
Post: #34
RE: My playoff update
(11-04-2013 01:16 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 12:27 PM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 12:20 PM)DooX Wrote:  I agree that 8-4 should get us in. OTOH, it will be a weak 8-4. Villanova is out of the hunt and if we beat UNH then they are out of it too. A loss to Towson would mean that we have no wins against play-off teams and depending on how UNH & Villanova finish the season possibly no wins against teams with a winning record.

IMO, I don't think 8-4 gets us in if we are sitting at #5 in the CAA behind Towson and W&M. I think in that scenario, we are the #25 playoff team.

I think 8-4 (5-3) gets us in if W&M loses to Delaware and Towson (or any two of their remaining three games) and finishes at 7-5 (4-4) since that makes us the #4 CAA team.

I think 8-4 (5-3) gets us in if Towson loses to W&M and us and finishes at 8-4 (4-4) since that would make us the #4 CAA team.

9-3 gets us in no questions asked.

Maybe. This is what I see looking at the standings, and who still has to play who, taking note of Div II games:

Big Sky: 4
CAA: 4
MVFC: 2
So-Con: 2
Southland: 3
Patriot: 2
OVC: 2
Big South: 1 (CSU is 9-1, but played 2 Div II, 7-1 vs Div I. 3 of their 4 toughest games are coming up, @ CCU, @ GW, Liberty. CSU has barely beaten a lot of awful teams, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop those last 3 games to finish 9-4, 7-4 vs Div I, which would mean no playoffs.
MEAC: 1 (An 8-4 5th CAA would have a much stronger resume than an 8-3 (vs Div I) SC State).
NEC: 1
Pioneer: 1

Thats 23 teams....

Think its better than 50/50 an 8-4 JMU as a 5th CAA team would get in. Thinks its a near lock that an 8-4 JMU as a 4th CAA team would get in. As has already been said, have to root for the Eberts to lose 2 of their last 3 (@ UD, TU, UR).


not sure how you think its 50/50 an 8-4 JMU team in 5th place of the CAA gets in over 4 of those teams in your 23 listed.

where do the 4 come from?

Big sky? there's 1, but they are a lock for at least 3
MVC? Nope. NDSU and YSU are virtual locks
Southland? maybe 1 here. But as I noted before, all 3 of the teams likely to be in contention have better wins and resumes than we would
SoCon? Maybe 1
Patriot? we won't get in over Fordham and they'll get a 2nd due to auto bid
OVC? Maybe 1

so of the at large leagues, if we are 5th in the CAA pecking order, which we will be if W&M doesn't fall apart, we are banking on maybe's in ALL 4 of the available leagues that could lose a spot from your list:

Big Sky (would be 5th placed CAA over 4th place Big Sky)
Southland (5th CAA over 3rd SL)
SoCon (5th CAA over 2nd SoCon)
OVC (5th CAA over 3rd OVC)

I think it might be a 5-10% chance if we are 8-4 and behind 3 teams in the league that beat us (Towson, W&M, UD)

if you think about it, if W&M wins this weekend...if we are going to be 8-4 and getting in, we might be better off losing to UNH and beating Towson....versus the other way around that most of us assume.....to knock Towson back and hold the advantage over them. (UNH will lose to Maine and get to 5 losses)
(This post was last modified: 11-04-2013 01:30 PM by Duke Dawg.)
11-04-2013 01:29 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
BDKJMU Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 9,737
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 47
I Root For: James Madison
Location:
Post: #35
RE: My playoff update
(11-04-2013 01:29 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 01:16 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 12:27 PM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 12:20 PM)DooX Wrote:  I agree that 8-4 should get us in. OTOH, it will be a weak 8-4. Villanova is out of the hunt and if we beat UNH then they are out of it too. A loss to Towson would mean that we have no wins against play-off teams and depending on how UNH & Villanova finish the season possibly no wins against teams with a winning record.

IMO, I don't think 8-4 gets us in if we are sitting at #5 in the CAA behind Towson and W&M. I think in that scenario, we are the #25 playoff team.

I think 8-4 (5-3) gets us in if W&M loses to Delaware and Towson (or any two of their remaining three games) and finishes at 7-5 (4-4) since that makes us the #4 CAA team.

I think 8-4 (5-3) gets us in if Towson loses to W&M and us and finishes at 8-4 (4-4) since that would make us the #4 CAA team.

9-3 gets us in no questions asked.

Maybe. This is what I see looking at the standings, and who still has to play who, taking note of Div II games:

Big Sky: 4
CAA: 4
MVFC: 2
So-Con: 2
Southland: 3
Patriot: 2
OVC: 2
Big South: 1 (CSU is 9-1, but played 2 Div II, 7-1 vs Div I. 3 of their 4 toughest games are coming up, @ CCU, @ GW, Liberty. CSU has barely beaten a lot of awful teams, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop those last 3 games to finish 9-4, 7-4 vs Div I, which would mean no playoffs.
MEAC: 1 (An 8-4 5th CAA would have a much stronger resume than an 8-3 (vs Div I) SC State).
NEC: 1
Pioneer: 1

Thats 23 teams....

Think its better than 50/50 an 8-4 JMU as a 5th CAA team would get in. Thinks its a near lock that an 8-4 JMU as a 4th CAA team would get in. As has already been said, have to root for the Eberts to lose 2 of their last 3 (@ UD, TU, UR).


not sure how you think its 50/50 an 8-4 JMU team in 5th place of the CAA gets in over 4 of those teams in your 23 listed.

where do the 4 come from?

Big sky? there's 1, but they are a lock for at least 3
MVC? Nope. NDSU and YSU are virtual locks
Southland? maybe 1 here. But as I noted before, all 3 of the teams likely to be in contention have better wins and resumes than we would
SoCon? Maybe 1
Patriot? we won't get in over Fordham and they'll get a 2nd due to auto bid
OVC? Maybe 1

so of the at large leagues, if we are 5th in the CAA pecking order, which we will be if W&M doesn't fall apart, we are banking on maybe's in ALL 4 of the available leagues that could lose a spot from your list:

Big Sky (would be 5th placed CAA over 4th place Big Sky)
Southland (5th CAA over 3rd SL)
SoCon (5th CAA over 2nd SoCon)
OVC (5th CAA over 3rd OVC)

I think it might be a 5-10% chance if we are 8-4 and behind 3 teams in the league that beat us (Towson, W&M, UD)

if you think about it, if W&M wins this weekend...if we are going to be 8-4 and getting in, we might be better off losing to UNH and beating Towson....versus the other way around that most of us assume.....to knock Towson back and hold the advantage over them. (UNH will lose to Maine and get to 5 losses)

Go re read the post. I never said that.01-wingedeagle I accounted for 23 teams. I didn't say JMU as an 8-4 5th place CAA team would get in over any of those 23. I said it was better than 50/50 that an 8-4 5th place CAA team would get in as the 24th team AFTER those 23.
11-04-2013 01:37 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
DooX Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,701
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 30
I Root For: JMU
Location: Sneaking Up Behind U
Post: #36
RE: My playoff update
(11-04-2013 12:40 PM)PurpleStreamers Wrote:  Just picking nits here and obviously still not meaningful, but CCSU is actually in decent position to win the NEC autobid.

You're right they still do have a shot. I saw them in red on the other thread and assumed they were done. However, just glanced at their schedule and both their conference wins are against the bottom two NEC teams. They have a game with the 'other' Dukes, Duquesne, in a couple weeks who is leading the NEC. If they lose that one they are pretty much done.
(This post was last modified: 11-04-2013 01:55 PM by DooX.)
11-04-2013 01:39 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JMU_Newbill Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,761
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 45
I Root For: JMU & Whoever Plays VT
Location: Richmond, VA
Post: #37
RE: My playoff update
If W&M is going to win, we need them to run the table. Then we would need to beat Towson and UNH. I think in that scenario, we could still lose to SBU, end up 8-4 (5-3) and be #4 in the CAA. I don't feel like checking.
11-04-2013 01:39 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JMad03 Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 8,582
Joined: Mar 2013
Reputation: 140
I Root For: James Madison
Location: Radford, VA
Post: #38
RE: My playoff update
One positive we have going for us is we don't have any losses to bad FCS teams. Yes, we lost to Akron, but that was FBS and it was less than 3 points. I would think an 8-4 CAA team with losses against good teams would get in over an 8-4 program that didn't play an FBS school and may have 1-2 bad losses.
11-04-2013 01:43 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Duke Dawg Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 9,192
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 130
I Root For: James Madison
Location:
Post: #39
RE: My playoff update
(11-04-2013 01:37 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 01:29 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 01:16 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 12:27 PM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 12:20 PM)DooX Wrote:  I agree that 8-4 should get us in. OTOH, it will be a weak 8-4. Villanova is out of the hunt and if we beat UNH then they are out of it too. A loss to Towson would mean that we have no wins against play-off teams and depending on how UNH & Villanova finish the season possibly no wins against teams with a winning record.

IMO, I don't think 8-4 gets us in if we are sitting at #5 in the CAA behind Towson and W&M. I think in that scenario, we are the #25 playoff team.

I think 8-4 (5-3) gets us in if W&M loses to Delaware and Towson (or any two of their remaining three games) and finishes at 7-5 (4-4) since that makes us the #4 CAA team.

I think 8-4 (5-3) gets us in if Towson loses to W&M and us and finishes at 8-4 (4-4) since that would make us the #4 CAA team.

9-3 gets us in no questions asked.

Maybe. This is what I see looking at the standings, and who still has to play who, taking note of Div II games:

Big Sky: 4
CAA: 4
MVFC: 2
So-Con: 2
Southland: 3
Patriot: 2
OVC: 2
Big South: 1 (CSU is 9-1, but played 2 Div II, 7-1 vs Div I. 3 of their 4 toughest games are coming up, @ CCU, @ GW, Liberty. CSU has barely beaten a lot of awful teams, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop those last 3 games to finish 9-4, 7-4 vs Div I, which would mean no playoffs.
MEAC: 1 (An 8-4 5th CAA would have a much stronger resume than an 8-3 (vs Div I) SC State).
NEC: 1
Pioneer: 1

Thats 23 teams....

Think its better than 50/50 an 8-4 JMU as a 5th CAA team would get in. Thinks its a near lock that an 8-4 JMU as a 4th CAA team would get in. As has already been said, have to root for the Eberts to lose 2 of their last 3 (@ UD, TU, UR).


not sure how you think its 50/50 an 8-4 JMU team in 5th place of the CAA gets in over 4 of those teams in your 23 listed.

where do the 4 come from?

Big sky? there's 1, but they are a lock for at least 3
MVC? Nope. NDSU and YSU are virtual locks
Southland? maybe 1 here. But as I noted before, all 3 of the teams likely to be in contention have better wins and resumes than we would
SoCon? Maybe 1
Patriot? we won't get in over Fordham and they'll get a 2nd due to auto bid
OVC? Maybe 1

so of the at large leagues, if we are 5th in the CAA pecking order, which we will be if W&M doesn't fall apart, we are banking on maybe's in ALL 4 of the available leagues that could lose a spot from your list:

Big Sky (would be 5th placed CAA over 4th place Big Sky)
Southland (5th CAA over 3rd SL)
SoCon (5th CAA over 2nd SoCon)
OVC (5th CAA over 3rd OVC)

I think it might be a 5-10% chance if we are 8-4 and behind 3 teams in the league that beat us (Towson, W&M, UD)

if you think about it, if W&M wins this weekend...if we are going to be 8-4 and getting in, we might be better off losing to UNH and beating Towson....versus the other way around that most of us assume.....to knock Towson back and hold the advantage over them. (UNH will lose to Maine and get to 5 losses)

Go re read the post. I never said that.01-wingedeagle I accounted for 23 teams. I didn't say JMU as an 8-4 5th place CAA team would get in over any of those 23. I said it was better than 50/50 that an 8-4 5th place CAA team would get in as the 24th team AFTER those 23.

ha! nevermind. for some reason, I was thinking back to the 20 team playoff. Brain fart. 01-wingedeagle
11-04-2013 01:45 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JMUDukeDawg Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,491
Joined: Dec 2012
Reputation: 21
I Root For: JMU
Location:
Post: #40
RE: My playoff update
(11-04-2013 01:39 PM)DooX Wrote:  
(11-04-2013 12:40 PM)PurpleStreamers Wrote:  Just picking nits here and obviously still not meaningful, but CCSU is actually in decent position to win the NEC autobid.

You're right they still do have a shot. I saw them in red on the other thread and assumed they were pretty much done. However, just glanced at their schedule and both their conference wins are against the bottom two NEC teams. They have a game with the 'other' Dukes, Duquesne, in a couple weeks who is leading the NEC. If they lose that one they are pretty much done.

A little off topic, but how great would it be if Duquesne won the NEC and we played them in the first round. Dukes v. Dukes baby!
11-04-2013 01:54 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2024 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2024 MyBB Group.