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Why conference championships will drive CFP
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Melky Cabrera Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Why conference championships will drive CFP
(10-28-2013 08:29 AM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote:  I still think that the notion that fans are going to travel to three consecutive neutral site games is patently absurd and the height of arrogance. It will not work. Within five years, almost all conference championship games (the SEC will likely be the outlier) will be played on the campus of the highest rated team within that conference.

Just think about it for a second. Let's say that the system was in place this year and you are a fan of Florida State.

The Seminoles have legitimate national championship aspirations - especially in a four team playoff scenario. Tell me, who in their right mind is going to pay all of that money to go to Charlotte knowing that if they win that game (and the Noles will be heavily favored to do so), they are headed to New Orleans for their next game? And if they win that game, they would play in Dallas for the national championship.

That makes no sense. People will simply save their money and roll the dice on Dallas.

Duh!

How many people have that kind of money and are that passionate about their team? Remember, we are talking about ENORMOUS stadia here, not 20K seat arenas (most of which do not sell out and are primarily filled by locals - completely different model than football).

I honestly don't understand the mentality of the BCS power brokers? They are trying to split the baby here to some degree and marry the old bowl system with a more modern, potentially more lucrative, playoff system and that is definitely not going to work.

Most people don't have unlimited resources and/or unlimited free time and they are not going to travel to three consecutive road games. This system is doomed to fail.

When you say the system is doomed to fail, do you mean the neutral site element of the system?

I think you're right. They will eventually use the NFL model, which means playoff games at the home of the higher seeded team and only the final championship game at a neutral site.
10-29-2013 03:29 PM
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adcorbett Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Why conference championships will drive CFP
That can work, but the problem is college football has a dual revenue source that the NFL doesn't. So in order to make that work, the new model must replace the lost revenue, PLUS show a generous return to make blowing up the system worthwhile. Also, what cannot be lost is, those Access Bowls... right now... still bring in $80 million per year to pay to conferences. An expansion of the playoffs, reduces those bowls to Capitol One Bowl like status, which pay out less than $10 million a year total (not per team). You have to replace ALL of that revenue, with 4 extra playoff games, which by their nature, will likely be the four least compelling matchups of the group.
10-30-2013 10:39 AM
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Mtneer001 Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Why conference championships will drive CFP
(10-28-2013 09:50 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I don't think it will always take precedent. The only way it will is if the P5 becomes the P4, and D-IA splits from the rest of FBS.


This. You can only have 4 conferences. And you would need an 8 team playoff. I cannot imagine slive would agree to this, and he is creating the new division....
10-30-2013 02:42 PM
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allthatyoucantleavebehind Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Why conference championships will drive CFP
(10-28-2013 01:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-28-2013 01:26 PM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  
(10-28-2013 09:36 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  I completely disagree with the OP. In his scenario 2 years ago Alabama would have been left out of the playoffs. Just imagine the outrage when a team like Bama is left out and a UCLA with 4 losses beats an undefeated Oregon in the CCG and gets in the Playoffs over Oregon and Bama.

You didn't quite read me right. My point wasn't that each and every CCG champ would be in. That's impossible. My point was that the committee must show PREFERENCE to champs if possible.

In 2011, #1 LSU, #3 OkSt, and #4 Oregon all would have gotten their selections through their conference championship game wins.

The Big Ten champ Wisconsin would have come in around #8 after its win...and the ACC champ Clemson was barely in the top 20. No bid for them. #2 Alabama gets the final bid. 'Bama vs. Oregon in one CFP semi. LSU vs. OkSt in the other. Easy.

think you have the semi matchups wrong for '11.
LSU vs Oregon in one, Alabama vs Oklahoma St in the other. Oklahoma St ahead of Oregon, so the lower team LSU gets.

THE CFP committee will create matchups. Polls/ranking won't mean anything. You could be right...but it's whatever the CFP decides would drive ratings.
10-31-2013 08:30 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Why conference championships will drive CFP
(10-31-2013 08:30 AM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  
(10-28-2013 01:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-28-2013 01:26 PM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  
(10-28-2013 09:36 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  I completely disagree with the OP. In his scenario 2 years ago Alabama would have been left out of the playoffs. Just imagine the outrage when a team like Bama is left out and a UCLA with 4 losses beats an undefeated Oregon in the CCG and gets in the Playoffs over Oregon and Bama.

You didn't quite read me right. My point wasn't that each and every CCG champ would be in. That's impossible. My point was that the committee must show PREFERENCE to champs if possible.

In 2011, #1 LSU, #3 OkSt, and #4 Oregon all would have gotten their selections through their conference championship game wins.

The Big Ten champ Wisconsin would have come in around #8 after its win...and the ACC champ Clemson was barely in the top 20. No bid for them. #2 Alabama gets the final bid. 'Bama vs. Oregon in one CFP semi. LSU vs. OkSt in the other. Easy.

think you have the semi matchups wrong for '11.
LSU vs Oregon in one, Alabama vs Oklahoma St in the other. Oklahoma St ahead of Oregon, so the lower team LSU gets.

THE CFP committee will create matchups. Polls/ranking won't mean anything. You could be right...but it's whatever the CFP decides would drive ratings.

That's not what they've said. They have said that their #1 would play their #4 and their #2 will play their #3. LSU was a unanimous #1 that year. Alabama and Oklahoma St were a clear 2/3 that year. Oregon wasn't even 4, but would get bumped up due to Conference championship. probably makes 2 better games anyways!
10-31-2013 08:32 AM
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allthatyoucantleavebehind Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Why conference championships will drive CFP
(10-28-2013 08:29 AM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote:  I still think that the notion that fans are going to travel to three consecutive neutral site games is patently absurd and the height of arrogance. It will not work. Within five years, almost all conference championship games (the SEC will likely be the outlier) will be played on the campus of the highest rated team within that conference.

Just think about it for a second. Let's say that the system was in place this year and you are a fan of Florida State.

The Seminoles have legitimate national championship aspirations - especially in a four team playoff scenario. Tell me, who in their right mind is going to pay all of that money to go to Charlotte knowing that if they win that game (and the Noles will be heavily favored to do so), they are headed to New Orleans for their next game? And if they win that game, they would play in Dallas for the national championship.

That makes no sense. People will simply save their money and roll the dice on Dallas.

Duh!

How many people have that kind of money and are that passionate about their team? Remember, we are talking about ENORMOUS stadia here, not 20K seat arenas (most of which do not sell out and are primarily filled by locals - completely different model than football).

I honestly don't understand the mentality of the BCS power brokers? They are trying to split the baby here to some degree and marry the old bowl system with a more modern, potentially more lucrative, playoff system and that is definitely not going to work.

Most people don't have unlimited resources and/or unlimited free time and they are not going to travel to three consecutive road games. This system is doomed to fail.

Dr.,
You make it sound like Michigan and LSU and Florida State have 100,000 fans each...and those same 100,000 fans won't travel three weeks in a row.

Here's how I see it, as a PSU fan who lived in San Diego...
There are maybe 500,000 PSU fans (alumni or not) around the country, mainly in a 300 mile radius of State College. Enough of those fans will go to Indianapolis when PSU makes the Big Ten CCG. Then, if selected for a CFP bowl, there will be a good 20,000 people from other parts of the country who want to go to Miami or Dallas or Atlanta, or AZ or Pasadena or New Orleans for New Year's. This will still be the bowl vacation it has traditionally been. Those 60,000 seat stadiums only need 1/3 of the fans to come from each team playing. The rest of the seats can be filled with corporate sales and local sports fans.
Will these be the same people who just went to Indiana four weeks earlier? Some, but not many.
Now, if PSU wins their New Year's bowl and makes it to the CFP champ game, will those same fans turn around and go to another city less than a week later to watch? Heck no. But there might be 480,000 other PSU fans (or 460,000 if you want to discount the ones who paid to go to the Big CCG in Indy) who can dream about going. Of those, if 5,000 go, that'll be sufficient, because the CFP will be a "Super Bowl-like" event. They won't be worried about filling up most of the seats to that game.

And at the end of the day, 455,000 PSU fans will enjoy watching all 3 games on TV...and 55,000 will be glad they got to see 2 on TV and 1 live along the way.

(No need to make the "PSU will never be relevant again" comments...let's talk CFB please 05-mafia)
10-31-2013 08:46 AM
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allthatyoucantleavebehind Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Why conference championships will drive CFP
(10-31-2013 08:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-31-2013 08:30 AM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  
(10-28-2013 01:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-28-2013 01:26 PM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  
(10-28-2013 09:36 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  I completely disagree with the OP. In his scenario 2 years ago Alabama would have been left out of the playoffs. Just imagine the outrage when a team like Bama is left out and a UCLA with 4 losses beats an undefeated Oregon in the CCG and gets in the Playoffs over Oregon and Bama.

You didn't quite read me right. My point wasn't that each and every CCG champ would be in. That's impossible. My point was that the committee must show PREFERENCE to champs if possible.

In 2011, #1 LSU, #3 OkSt, and #4 Oregon all would have gotten their selections through their conference championship game wins.

The Big Ten champ Wisconsin would have come in around #8 after its win...and the ACC champ Clemson was barely in the top 20. No bid for them. #2 Alabama gets the final bid. 'Bama vs. Oregon in one CFP semi. LSU vs. OkSt in the other. Easy.

think you have the semi matchups wrong for '11.
LSU vs Oregon in one, Alabama vs Oklahoma St in the other. Oklahoma St ahead of Oregon, so the lower team LSU gets.

THE CFP committee will create matchups. Polls/ranking won't mean anything. You could be right...but it's whatever the CFP decides would drive ratings.

That's not what they've said. They have said that their #1 would play their #4 and their #2 will play their #3. LSU was a unanimous #1 that year. Alabama and Oklahoma St were a clear 2/3 that year. Oregon wasn't even 4, but would get bumped up due to Conference championship. probably makes 2 better games anyways!

And who is creating the rankings? 03-lmfao
The rankings will look like whatever they WANT it to look like. From everything I've read, the "CFP" rankings are simply their arbitrary decision on who is 1-25. Committee meets (or sends in votes) 4 times before their final meeting in Vatican City, and releases their "opinions." No need for ranking or decimal points.

We'll see though.
10-31-2013 08:49 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Why conference championships will drive CFP
The thing is, when there's a clear cut #1 like what was in 2011 with LSU(only undefeated team)- it's going to be pretty much impossible to not have them at #1. Alabama and Oklahoma St were clearly ahead of Oregon(1 loss vs 2 losses). I'm not even so sure that Oregon would get in over Stanford, even with the conference championship piece.
10-31-2013 08:53 AM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Why conference championships will drive CFP
(10-31-2013 08:53 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing is, when there's a clear cut #1 like what was in 2011 with LSU(only undefeated team)- it's going to be pretty much impossible to not have them at #1. Alabama and Oklahoma St were clearly ahead of Oregon(1 loss vs 2 losses). I'm not even so sure that Oregon would get in over Stanford, even with the conference championship piece.

Oregon had a home loss to USC that year. Their other loss was to LSU week 1. I don't believe they'd deserve a rematch based on that merit. I would have still gone Stanford, but Scott wants to give meaning to CCG whenever applicable. It's basically a glorified regular season game at this point, and the model clearly does not work due to unbalanced divisions.
10-31-2013 09:07 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Why conference championships will drive CFP
(10-31-2013 09:07 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(10-31-2013 08:53 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing is, when there's a clear cut #1 like what was in 2011 with LSU(only undefeated team)- it's going to be pretty much impossible to not have them at #1. Alabama and Oklahoma St were clearly ahead of Oregon(1 loss vs 2 losses). I'm not even so sure that Oregon would get in over Stanford, even with the conference championship piece.

Oregon had a home loss to USC that year. Their other loss was to LSU week 1. I don't believe they'd deserve a rematch based on that merit. I would have still gone Stanford, but Scott wants to give meaning to CCG whenever applicable. It's basically a glorified regular season game at this point, and the model clearly does not work due to unbalanced divisions.

It was an interesting year that's for sure. I don't think Scott wants to give meaning to CCG, but rather conference champions. Oregon was, Stanford wasn't.
10-31-2013 09:15 AM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Why conference championships will drive CFP
(10-31-2013 09:15 AM)stever20 Wrote:  [quote='RUScarlets' pid='9932717' dateline='1383228469']
It was an interesting year that's for sure. I don't think Scott wants to give meaning to CCG, but rather conference champions. Oregon was, Stanford wasn't.

Hmmmm.... I give up.
10-31-2013 09:30 AM
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