The AAC's BCS bid is UCF's, if they win out.

Fresno State and Northern Illinois are ranked higher in the BCS so, Uof L needs to finish considerably higher than them.

Overall: not likely, i.e. Slim just walked out the door.

Louisville laid an egg on its BCS chance.

In 2009 we saw #4 TCU get the automatic bid, and #6 Boise get selected as an at-large. So there is precedent for a non "P5" school getting picked.

However, Boise was 13-0 and had beaten Oregon, while Louisville already has 1 loss and will have no signature wins. Plus Boise had been a top 10 staple for years, and Louisville has only had the spotlight since the Sugar Bowl.

EDIT: changed 2010 to 2009 per Inigo's comment

Zilch
Zero
Nada

(10-23-2013 08:02 AM)BJUnklFkr Wrote:  Zilch
Zero
Nada

this if it was up to the bcs we'd have 0.

0.0000000000000000001% but at least we still have a chance.

(10-23-2013 08:00 AM)MechaKnight Wrote:  In 2010 we saw #4 TCU get the automatic bid, and #6 Boise get selected as an at-large. So there is precedent for a non "P5" school getting picked.

However, Boise was 13-0 and had beaten Oregon, while Louisville already has 1 loss and will have no signature wins. Plus Boise had been a top 10 staple for years, and Louisville has only had the spotlight since the Sugar Bowl.

As you alluded, 2009 (the year you were talking about, not 2010) was totally different circumstances. In 2009, all 6 conference champions from AQ leagues were in the top 10. Plus TCU finished #4 so they were an automatic selection.

This left the choices for the 3 available at large spots as:

#5 Florida (12-1)
#6 Boise State (13-0 with a win over Pac-12 champ #7 Oregon)
#10 Iowa (10-2)
#11 Virginia Tech (9-3)
#12 LSU (9-3)
#13 Penn State (10-2)
#14 BYU (10-2)


Florida was selected 1st from the at-large teams. This also eliminated LSU (only 2 teams from the same conference can get BCS slots and Alabama was in the national championship game).


So for the final 2 at large spots you had:
#6 Boise State (13-0 with a win over Pac-12 champ #7 Oregon)
#10 Iowa (10-2)
#11 Virginia Tech (9-3)
#13 Penn State (10-2)
#14 BYU (10-2)

Iowa was actually selected next. This eliminated Penn State due to the 2 team per conference rule.

So for the last at large spot you had:
#6 Boise State (13-0 with a win over Pac-12 champ #7 Oregon)
#11 Virginia Tech (9-3)
#14 BYU (10-2)

If a 3 loss ACC team had been selected over an undefeated #6 team who had beaten the #7 team, the outcry would have been deafening. Not to mention the fact that when the Fiesta Bowl picked in the next-to-last postition, their choices were limited to Boise State, Virginia Tech, BYU, or Cincinnati (Big East champ who hadn't been selected yet). So with those choices, Boise State being in their region made them an even more logical choice than Virginia Tech.

(10-23-2013 08:45 AM)Inigo Wrote:  As you alluded, 2009 (the year you were talking about, not 2010) was totally different circumstances.

Doh, you're right. I got mixed up because the game was in January 2010, even though it was at the end of the 2009 season.

(10-23-2013 08:45 AM)Inigo Wrote:  In 2009, all 6 conference champions from AQ leagues were in the top 10. Plus TCU finished #4 so they were an automatic selection.

...Florida was selected 1st from the at-large teams....

...when the Fiesta Bowl picked in the next-to-last postition, their choices were limited to Boise State, Virginia Tech, BYU, or Cincinnati (Big East champ who hadn't been selected yet).

I'm confused about these statements. It looks like you're saying TCU was seeded in the Fiesta Bowl before the at-large selections started because they were #4. However, if that's the case then why didn't Cincy get seeded first since they were #3?

Did the Fiesta Bowl choose TCU, or were they required to take them? If they were able to choose their replacement for Texas, then why wouldn't they have taken Florida?

(10-23-2013 08:20 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  0.0000000000000000001% but at least we still have a chance.

(10-23-2013 09:23 AM)MechaKnight Wrote:  

(10-23-2013 08:45 AM)Inigo Wrote:  In 2009, all 6 conference champions from AQ leagues were in the top 10. Plus TCU finished #4 so they were an automatic selection.

...Florida was selected 1st from the at-large teams....

...when the Fiesta Bowl picked in the next-to-last postition, their choices were limited to Boise State, Virginia Tech, BYU, or Cincinnati (Big East champ who hadn't been selected yet).

I'm confused about these statements. It looks like you're saying TCU was seeded in the Fiesta Bowl before the at-large selections started because they were #4. However, if that's the case then why didn't Cincy get seeded first since they were #3?

Did the Fiesta Bowl choose TCU, or were they required to take them? If they were able to choose their replacement for Texas, then why wouldn't they have taken Florida?

Please see a more detailed explanation of that year's selection process I posted in another thread here:
http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=656...pid9895799