As of October 20, the following teams control their own destiny for at least a share of the AAC title:

Houston
UCF
USF
Rutgers
SMU

These teams need help:

Louisville
Cincinnati
UConn
Memphis
Temple

(10-20-2013 12:33 PM)CalallenStang Wrote:  As of October 20, the following teams control their own destiny for at least a share of the AAC title:

Houston
UCF
USF
Louisville
Cincinnati
Rutgers
SMU

These teams need help:

UConn
Memphis
Temple

Lousiville does not control their own destiny.

(10-20-2013 12:37 PM)FonzKnight Wrote:  

(10-20-2013 12:33 PM)CalallenStang Wrote:  As of October 20, the following teams control their own destiny for at least a share of the AAC title:

Houston
UCF
USF
Louisville
Cincinnati
Rutgers
SMU

These teams need help:

UConn
Memphis
Temple

Lousiville does not control their own destiny.

You are correct and neither does Cincy. I'll edit the original post

Right. Louisville can win out and not capture a share of the AAC title. They need UCF to lose.

Cincy does not control its destiny either. Since they don't play UCF - they need UCF to lose.

(10-20-2013 12:45 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  Right. Louisville can win out and not capture a share of the AAC title. They need UCF to lose.

Cincy does not control its destiny either. Since they don't play UCF - they need UCF to lose.

Cincy needs UCF and USF to lose.

UConn, Temple and Memphis need so so much help. When does a team become mathematically eliminated? 4 losses? 4-4 cannot tie for the conference title unless you have a 10-way tie at 4-4, right? And that's not going to happen. The conference champ will at least be 5-3, and probably better.

(10-20-2013 12:33 PM)CalallenStang Wrote:  As of October 20, the following teams control their own destiny for at least a share of the AAC title:

Houston
UCF
USF
Rutgers
SMU

Big game this week in Piscataway.

Wouldn't UCF have to lose twice to lose the tiebreaker with UL? One loss is a tie, which UCF owns, and UL could edge us out by ranking only I believe. Correct me if I'm wrong on this.

(10-20-2013 12:52 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  UConn, Temple and Memphis need so so much help. When does a team become mathematically eliminated? 4 losses? 4-4 cannot tie for the conference title unless you have a 10-way tie at 4-4, right? And that's not going to happen. The conference champ will at least be 5-3, and probably better.

A team is mathematically eliminated when their remaining schedule has fewer conference games than the conference leader has in conference wins.

(10-20-2013 01:41 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  Wouldn't UCF have to lose twice to lose the tiebreaker with UL? One loss is a tie, which UCF owns, and UL could edge us out by ranking only I believe. Correct me if I'm wrong on this.

99% chance yes. If 3 teams tie at exactly 7-1 UCF could lose the tiebreaker to UL because h2h no longer factored in. Long shot that it would happen though.

Coach TT figured out UC is a spread team, NOT PRO a game late. I doubt we win out anyway but man I wish he had done that earlier in the year.

UC's chance of winning the aac and getting the auto bid are ver low. We would have to win out AND UCF would have to lose, which Im not sure is going to happen. In fact, UCF would have to lose twice i think because they are so far ahead of us in BCS rank, a tie at top would still go to them. So they would need to lose twice (since we don't play them).

Oh well...we have some good bowls this year for those that don't get the autobid....a latest projection had Cincy vs Notre Dame in the Pinstripe bowl and another one had us vs Tennessee in the BBVA Bowl. I'd take either one.

(10-20-2013 12:46 PM)CalallenStang Wrote:  

(10-20-2013 12:45 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  Right. Louisville can win out and not capture a share of the AAC title. They need UCF to lose.

Cincy does not control its destiny either. Since they don't play UCF - they need UCF to lose.

Cincy needs UCF and USF to lose.

I expect USF to lose a couple games (they still have UofL, UCF and Rytgers) and UCF still has Rutgers, SMU and Houston (1 loss in there?). But it will be interesting to see how they handle the pressure.

This should be a fun race to the finish!

(10-21-2013 08:16 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(10-20-2013 01:41 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  Wouldn't UCF have to lose twice to lose the tiebreaker with UL? One loss is a tie, which UCF owns, and UL could edge us out by ranking only I believe. Correct me if I'm wrong on this.

99% chance yes. If 3 teams tie at exactly 7-1 UCF could lose the tiebreaker to UL because h2h no longer factored in. Long shot that it would happen though.

I can imagine a scenario where UCF finishes 7-1 in a three way tie with UL and UH, having beaten both teams, but loses because of BCS ranking. That would suck.

I still think conf race is wide open. That could change fairly quickly depending on the next couple of weeks. I still tend to think UCF and UL are the class of the league, but the margin is not very big.

(10-21-2013 08:48 AM)SublimeKnight Wrote:  

(10-21-2013 08:16 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(10-20-2013 01:41 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  Wouldn't UCF have to lose twice to lose the tiebreaker with UL? One loss is a tie, which UCF owns, and UL could edge us out by ranking only I believe. Correct me if I'm wrong on this.

99% chance yes. If 3 teams tie at exactly 7-1 UCF could lose the tiebreaker to UL because h2h no longer factored in. Long shot that it would happen though.

I can imagine a scenario where UCF finishes 7-1 in a three way tie with UL and UH, having beaten both teams, but loses because of BCS ranking. That would suck.

This means Houston loses to UL, but beats UCF, Cincy, Rutgers, and everyone else. It also means UCF doesn't lose to anyone but Houston. It also means UL wins out including @Nippert.

I'm not saying it's impossible, but the scenerio involves about 20 games going a certain way with 0 margin for error and I don't think thats an exaggeration.

(10-21-2013 08:52 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(10-21-2013 08:48 AM)SublimeKnight Wrote:  

(10-21-2013 08:16 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(10-20-2013 01:41 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  Wouldn't UCF have to lose twice to lose the tiebreaker with UL? One loss is a tie, which UCF owns, and UL could edge us out by ranking only I believe. Correct me if I'm wrong on this.

99% chance yes. If 3 teams tie at exactly 7-1 UCF could lose the tiebreaker to UL because h2h no longer factored in. Long shot that it would happen though.

I can imagine a scenario where UCF finishes 7-1 in a three way tie with UL and UH, having beaten both teams, but loses because of BCS ranking. That would suck.

This means Houston loses to UL, but beats UCF, Cincy, Rutgers, and everyone else. It also means UCF doesn't lose to anyone but Houston. It also means UL wins out including @Nippert.

I'm not saying it's impossible, but the scenerio involves about 20 games going a certain way with 0 margin for error and I don't think thats an exaggeration.

Yeah, forgot UCF and UL play UH. So all three can't end up 7-1 with UCF beating both UL and UH. If its a 3 way tie with all teams having a W and an L against the other two, no one can complain about how it comes down (but all will of course )

(10-21-2013 08:48 AM)SublimeKnight Wrote:  

(10-21-2013 08:16 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(10-20-2013 01:41 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  Wouldn't UCF have to lose twice to lose the tiebreaker with UL? One loss is a tie, which UCF owns, and UL could edge us out by ranking only I believe. Correct me if I'm wrong on this.

99% chance yes. If 3 teams tie at exactly 7-1 UCF could lose the tiebreaker to UL because h2h no longer factored in. Long shot that it would happen though.

I can imagine a scenario where UCF finishes 7-1 in a three way tie with UL and UH, having beaten both teams, but loses because of BCS ranking. That would suck.

this can't happen since UL plays UH, but even if they didn't play this season and we ended 7-1 tie with UL and UH and UCF beat both of them, then we'd get the bid. BCS ranking only comes into play when the three teams beat eachother. If one team beats the other two, bcs bid goes to that team.

Best way to avert a scenario like this, is to win out.

(10-21-2013 08:16 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(10-20-2013 01:41 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  Wouldn't UCF have to lose twice to lose the tiebreaker with UL? One loss is a tie, which UCF owns, and UL could edge us out by ranking only I believe. Correct me if I'm wrong on this.

99% chance yes. If 3 teams tie at exactly 7-1 UCF could lose the tiebreaker to UL because h2h no longer factored in. Long shot that it would happen though.

UCF, Houston, USF and Rutgers all play each other, so for UCF (for example) there wouldnt be a 3 way tie, if they win out thru the USF game, but lost to SMU. UCF would hold the tie-breaker on everyone.

(10-21-2013 10:53 AM)Goldenbuc Wrote:  

(10-21-2013 08:16 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(10-20-2013 01:41 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  Wouldn't UCF have to lose twice to lose the tiebreaker with UL? One loss is a tie, which UCF owns, and UL could edge us out by ranking only I believe. Correct me if I'm wrong on this.

99% chance yes. If 3 teams tie at exactly 7-1 UCF could lose the tiebreaker to UL because h2h no longer factored in. Long shot that it would happen though.

UCF, Houston, USF and Rutgers all play each other, so for UCF (for example) there wouldnt be a 3 way tie, if they win out thru the USF game, but lost to SMU. UCF would hold the tie-breaker on everyone.

The only chance of a 3 way tie at 7-1 is Louisville and Rutgers winning out and us winning all games except to Rutgers. That would create a 3 way tie where we are all 1-1 vs each other and the BCS standings would determine the winner.