North Texas (3-3/1-1 CUSA) at Louisiana Tech (2-4/1-1), 2:30 p.m. Saturday, CBSSN

> Why my confidence is medium: When Sonny Dykes left Louisiana Tech after the 2012 season, he took the offense with him to Cal. Almost literally. Louisiana Tech ranked first in the nation in both total offense and scoring offense last year. This year, La Tech has dropped to 80th and 105th, respectively, in those categories. Cal, on the other hand, has improved its ranking by 45 spots, moving up to 23rd this year after finishing 68th in 2012. The loss of all that offense has been a tough pill to swallow for La Tech, but it's been a relief for every team on its 2013 schedule. North Texas will be the beneficiary this week. The running game showed its first signs of life last week; that paired with much-improved quarterback play (Derek Thompson is on pace for more yards, TDs and a higher QB rating this year) will get North Texas above the .500 mark this week.

> Key stat: 1, the number of 100-yard games by a UNT rusher this year, the first which came from Brandin Byrd (20-139, TD) in last week's 34-7 win against Middle Tennessee State, after the team had four last season. North Texas rushed for 303 yards last week, more than it gained in the previous three games combined.

> The mob says: North Texas by 6.5
> So says I: North Texas 28, Louisiana Tech 24

Rice (4-2/3-0 CUSA) at New Mexico State (0-6), 7 p.m. Saturday, ESPN3

> Why my confidence is high: Let's cut to the chase, shall we? If you could break down college football into four major statistics (a big request for you "sabermetricians", if that's even a word), you'd probably go with scoring offense, scoring defense, total offense and total defense. Combine those four stats, and you can learn a lot about a team. What we learn about New Mexico State: the Aggies from across the border rank 100 or worse nationally in each of those four categories. The best ranking for NMSU is 100th (total offense). NMSU ranks dead last in two of them (total defense and scoring defense). So for the Rice fans who might have some trepidation after the Owls barely slipped by Florida Atlantic and UTSA in the past two games, have no fear. New Mexico State, playing an independent schedule this year, and getting roughed up at every turn, is a bad team right now with no foreseeable hope for change.

> Key stat: 33, the average margin of defeat for New Mexico State, having lost every game by at least 10 points.

> The mob says: Rice by 17.5
> So says I: Rice 44, New Mexico State 21

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I think your spot on with both games. I actually believe the NT at LT game will be fun to watch. North Texas has shown that it can play some very good football, and i sense that LaTech is ready to start something. I'm looking forward to it.

I'm glad it's on tv.