Hambone10
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RE: Sagarin Week 7
(10-15-2013 12:19 PM)I45owl Wrote: (10-15-2013 12:07 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: I think the biggest buoy to our season is UH at 17. I find that completely unbelievable. That isn't a top 20 squad over there and I think they will get brought back to reality over the next few weeks. Not bad, but more realistic... probably around 40-50 would be my guess... and I suspect that will hurt us.
I think they're better than that... maybe 25-30 range. The contributions from their freshmen in the game against Rice were very promising for their future. I wonder if their success has surprised even the coaching staff.
I'd love to see that, but our 2008 squad was in the 40's iirc and was among the highest ranked teams CUSA had over that span. Do you REALLY think that is the best team of any CUSA team from the past 5 years or so? Maybe I'm wrong.
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10-15-2013 12:23 PM |
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I45owl
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RE: Sagarin Week 7
(10-15-2013 12:23 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: (10-15-2013 12:19 PM)I45owl Wrote: (10-15-2013 12:07 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: I think the biggest buoy to our season is UH at 17. I find that completely unbelievable. That isn't a top 20 squad over there and I think they will get brought back to reality over the next few weeks. Not bad, but more realistic... probably around 40-50 would be my guess... and I suspect that will hurt us.
I think they're better than that... maybe 25-30 range. The contributions from their freshmen in the game against Rice were very promising for their future. I wonder if their success has surprised even the coaching staff.
I'd love to see that, but our 2008 squad was in the 40's iirc and was among the highest ranked teams CUSA had over that span. Do you REALLY think that is the best team of any CUSA team from the past 5 years or so? Maybe I'm wrong.
hmmmm... no. I will exclude the UH and USM teams that threatened BCS bowl berths, as those were clearly superior, but I think Tulsa and UH probably also had better teams in addition to those teams.
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10-15-2013 12:35 PM |
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Hambone10
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RE: Sagarin Week 7
(10-15-2013 12:35 PM)I45owl Wrote: (10-15-2013 12:23 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: I'd love to see that, but our 2008 squad was in the 40's iirc and was among the highest ranked teams CUSA had over that span. Do you REALLY think that is the best team of any CUSA team from the past 5 years or so? Maybe I'm wrong.
hmmmm... no. I will exclude the UH and USM teams that threatened BCS bowl berths, as those were clearly superior, but I think Tulsa and UH probably also had better teams in addition to those teams.
Well, we're just guessing anyway. Maybe it's just a "down" year overall. That's just where I came up with my expectations.... and completely unscientific or anything.
The better they are, the better our loss to them looks... I hope UH wins out... and yes, I said that with a straight face. I just don't think they're PARTICULARLY good.
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10-15-2013 01:01 PM |
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Hou_Hater
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RE: Sagarin Week 7
(10-15-2013 12:56 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote: (10-14-2013 11:57 PM)smackdaddy Wrote: (10-14-2013 11:50 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote: (10-14-2013 09:21 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: Where were we to start the season?
My system does not come into play until teams play 4 games. Prior to that, there is insufficient data (the previous season is irrelevant).
But, the last three weeks, the Owls have moved from #75 to #68 to #62.
Considering the poor rankings of our future opponents (and excluding a bowl game opponent cuz it's a total wild card), what do you think would be the highest ranking we could attain if we were to win out? Top 30? Top 40? Top 50?? What's the best case scenario?
Finishing at 10-2 likely would place Rice between 30-35.
Keep dreaming.
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10-15-2013 01:14 PM |
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Afflicted
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RE: Sagarin Week 7
(10-15-2013 01:01 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: (10-15-2013 12:35 PM)I45owl Wrote: (10-15-2013 12:23 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: I'd love to see that, but our 2008 squad was in the 40's iirc and was among the highest ranked teams CUSA had over that span. Do you REALLY think that is the best team of any CUSA team from the past 5 years or so? Maybe I'm wrong.
hmmmm... no. I will exclude the UH and USM teams that threatened BCS bowl berths, as those were clearly superior, but I think Tulsa and UH probably also had better teams in addition to those teams.
Well, we're just guessing anyway. Maybe it's just a "down" year overall. That's just where I came up with my expectations.... and completely unscientific or anything.
The better they are, the better our loss to them looks... I hope UH wins out... and yes, I said that with a straight face. I just don't think they're PARTICULARLY good.
Agree. Not just because I'm a UH alum, but mostly because I'm selfish and want Rice to look good. UH is much better than last year, but I concur that they're not particularly good. We'll see what they're made of this weekend.
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10-15-2013 02:33 PM |
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Afflicted
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RE: Sagarin Week 7
(10-14-2013 11:57 PM)smackdaddy Wrote: (10-14-2013 11:50 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote: (10-14-2013 09:21 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: Where were we to start the season?
My system does not come into play until teams play 4 games. Prior to that, there is insufficient data (the previous season is irrelevant).
But, the last three weeks, the Owls have moved from #75 to #68 to #62.
Considering the poor rankings of our future opponents (and excluding a bowl game opponent cuz it's a total wild card), what do you think would be the highest ranking we could attain if we were to win out? Top 30? Top 40? Top 50?? What's the best case scenario?
If we win out and go to the Liberty Bowl, I could see us around #42. Win the Liberty Bowl (12-2), and the top 30 isn't outside the realm of possibilities. It's fun that we can even talk realistically about such a scenario.
(This post was last modified: 10-15-2013 02:39 PM by Afflicted.)
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10-15-2013 02:38 PM |
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JOwl
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RE: Sagarin Week 7
(10-15-2013 11:39 AM)MemOwl Wrote: (10-15-2013 09:19 AM)JOwl Wrote: Whereas against those teams ranked 103-125, we would expect wins of 9, 2, 2, and 6 points (reflecting where game was played). That's right about on target*.
So the good news is that there's no reason to expect single-digit wins.
(* Don't give the ratings method too much credit, as I'm testing it against its own data. But it does at least pass the back-testing smell test).
But the bad news is that Sagarin is therefor correct to slot us in the 70's, whereas we aspire to be 50 or higher.
Yeah, I don't see any reason to think Sagarin's rating is significantly off. But I don't really see any reason to aspire to be 50, either (except of course that 50 is better than 72). My aspiration for the team would be to be #1. Failing that, I want to be in top 25 in one of the published polls that only goes to 25. Failing that, I want to be among the others receiving votes in same. Failing that, I don't care about rankings and just want to win the division (then conference, then bowl game).
Back to the positive side of things -- there really isn't an enormous difference between #50 and #72. Sagarin would have us as a 1.5-pt dog at home to Wazzu (current #50).
On the down side, add another 7pts to that spread against Sagarin #25 Utah, and 17.5pts on top of that to #1 Oregon.
(This post was last modified: 10-15-2013 02:57 PM by JOwl.)
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10-15-2013 02:56 PM |
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owl40
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RE: Sagarin Week 7
Bowl predictions for C-USA on thread below. The Duke and Iowa match-ups could be interesting for Rice but rest are uninspiring games being predicted (e.g. Toledo, ULM, etc)...Nobody sees us winning C-USA.
http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=654700
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10-15-2013 08:24 PM |
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WRCisforgotten79
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RE: Sagarin Week 7
(10-15-2013 12:07 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: I think the biggest buoy to our season is UH at 17. I find that completely unbelievable. That isn't a top 20 squad over there and I think they will get brought back to reality over the next few weeks. Not bad, but more realistic... probably around 40-50 would be my guess... and I suspect that will hurt us.
My system is a snapshot that becomes less blurry as the season progresses. Houston at #17 is too high, but their schedule will resolve that. But, as of now, they deserve that spot. What I have found from years of doing this is that the system, early on, finds both underrated and overrated teams. For example, last week, it had Missouri at #10, while the polls had them at #25 and NR. It did not surprise me that they beat Georgia (I had them at #15). I also think Oklahoma State is overrated (they are not in my top 30).
Houston may be too high at #17, but I think it is ridiculous that they are the ONLY undefeated FBS team that is unranked (with just a handful of votes).
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10-15-2013 09:47 PM |
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