Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Sagarin Week 7
Author Message
Hambone10 Online
Hooter
*

Posts: 40,278
Joined: Nov 2005
Reputation: 1284
I Root For: My Kids
Location: Right Down th Middle

New Orleans BowlDonatorsThe Parliament Awards
Post: #21
RE: Sagarin Week 7
(10-15-2013 12:19 PM)I45owl Wrote:  
(10-15-2013 12:07 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  I think the biggest buoy to our season is UH at 17. I find that completely unbelievable. That isn't a top 20 squad over there and I think they will get brought back to reality over the next few weeks. Not bad, but more realistic... probably around 40-50 would be my guess... and I suspect that will hurt us.

I think they're better than that... maybe 25-30 range. The contributions from their freshmen in the game against Rice were very promising for their future. I wonder if their success has surprised even the coaching staff.

I'd love to see that, but our 2008 squad was in the 40's iirc and was among the highest ranked teams CUSA had over that span. Do you REALLY think that is the best team of any CUSA team from the past 5 years or so? Maybe I'm wrong.
10-15-2013 12:23 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
I45owl Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 18,374
Joined: Jun 2005
Reputation: 184
I Root For: Rice Owls
Location: Dallas, TX

New Orleans Bowl
Post: #22
RE: Sagarin Week 7
(10-15-2013 12:23 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(10-15-2013 12:19 PM)I45owl Wrote:  
(10-15-2013 12:07 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  I think the biggest buoy to our season is UH at 17. I find that completely unbelievable. That isn't a top 20 squad over there and I think they will get brought back to reality over the next few weeks. Not bad, but more realistic... probably around 40-50 would be my guess... and I suspect that will hurt us.

I think they're better than that... maybe 25-30 range. The contributions from their freshmen in the game against Rice were very promising for their future. I wonder if their success has surprised even the coaching staff.

I'd love to see that, but our 2008 squad was in the 40's iirc and was among the highest ranked teams CUSA had over that span. Do you REALLY think that is the best team of any CUSA team from the past 5 years or so? Maybe I'm wrong.

hmmmm... no. I will exclude the UH and USM teams that threatened BCS bowl berths, as those were clearly superior, but I think Tulsa and UH probably also had better teams in addition to those teams.
10-15-2013 12:35 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Hambone10 Online
Hooter
*

Posts: 40,278
Joined: Nov 2005
Reputation: 1284
I Root For: My Kids
Location: Right Down th Middle

New Orleans BowlDonatorsThe Parliament Awards
Post: #23
RE: Sagarin Week 7
(10-15-2013 12:35 PM)I45owl Wrote:  
(10-15-2013 12:23 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  I'd love to see that, but our 2008 squad was in the 40's iirc and was among the highest ranked teams CUSA had over that span. Do you REALLY think that is the best team of any CUSA team from the past 5 years or so? Maybe I'm wrong.

hmmmm... no. I will exclude the UH and USM teams that threatened BCS bowl berths, as those were clearly superior, but I think Tulsa and UH probably also had better teams in addition to those teams.

Well, we're just guessing anyway. Maybe it's just a "down" year overall. That's just where I came up with my expectations.... and completely unscientific or anything.

The better they are, the better our loss to them looks... I hope UH wins out... and yes, I said that with a straight face. I just don't think they're PARTICULARLY good.
10-15-2013 01:01 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Hou_Hater Offline
Banned

Posts: 125
Joined: Jul 2013
I Root For: Rice
Location:
Post: #24
RE: Sagarin Week 7
(10-15-2013 12:56 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  
(10-14-2013 11:57 PM)smackdaddy Wrote:  
(10-14-2013 11:50 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  
(10-14-2013 09:21 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Where were we to start the season?

My system does not come into play until teams play 4 games. Prior to that, there is insufficient data (the previous season is irrelevant).

But, the last three weeks, the Owls have moved from #75 to #68 to #62.

Considering the poor rankings of our future opponents (and excluding a bowl game opponent cuz it's a total wild card), what do you think would be the highest ranking we could attain if we were to win out? Top 30? Top 40? Top 50?? What's the best case scenario?

Finishing at 10-2 likely would place Rice between 30-35.

Keep dreaming.
10-15-2013 01:14 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Afflicted Offline
Banned

Posts: 4,249
Joined: Sep 2009
I Root For: Rice and UH
Location:
Post: #25
RE: Sagarin Week 7
(10-15-2013 01:01 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(10-15-2013 12:35 PM)I45owl Wrote:  
(10-15-2013 12:23 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  I'd love to see that, but our 2008 squad was in the 40's iirc and was among the highest ranked teams CUSA had over that span. Do you REALLY think that is the best team of any CUSA team from the past 5 years or so? Maybe I'm wrong.

hmmmm... no. I will exclude the UH and USM teams that threatened BCS bowl berths, as those were clearly superior, but I think Tulsa and UH probably also had better teams in addition to those teams.

Well, we're just guessing anyway. Maybe it's just a "down" year overall. That's just where I came up with my expectations.... and completely unscientific or anything.

The better they are, the better our loss to them looks... I hope UH wins out... and yes, I said that with a straight face. I just don't think they're PARTICULARLY good.

Agree. Not just because I'm a UH alum, but mostly because I'm selfish and want Rice to look good. UH is much better than last year, but I concur that they're not particularly good. We'll see what they're made of this weekend.
10-15-2013 02:33 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Afflicted Offline
Banned

Posts: 4,249
Joined: Sep 2009
I Root For: Rice and UH
Location:
Post: #26
RE: Sagarin Week 7
(10-14-2013 11:57 PM)smackdaddy Wrote:  
(10-14-2013 11:50 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  
(10-14-2013 09:21 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Where were we to start the season?

My system does not come into play until teams play 4 games. Prior to that, there is insufficient data (the previous season is irrelevant).

But, the last three weeks, the Owls have moved from #75 to #68 to #62.

Considering the poor rankings of our future opponents (and excluding a bowl game opponent cuz it's a total wild card), what do you think would be the highest ranking we could attain if we were to win out? Top 30? Top 40? Top 50?? What's the best case scenario?

If we win out and go to the Liberty Bowl, I could see us around #42. Win the Liberty Bowl (12-2), and the top 30 isn't outside the realm of possibilities. It's fun that we can even talk realistically about such a scenario.
(This post was last modified: 10-15-2013 02:39 PM by Afflicted.)
10-15-2013 02:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JOwl Offline
sum guy

Posts: 2,694
Joined: Jun 2005
I Root For: Rice
Location: Hell's Kitchen

DonatorsNew Orleans Bowl
Post: #27
RE: Sagarin Week 7
(10-15-2013 11:39 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  
(10-15-2013 09:19 AM)JOwl Wrote:  Whereas against those teams ranked 103-125, we would expect wins of 9, 2, 2, and 6 points (reflecting where game was played). That's right about on target*.

So the good news is that there's no reason to expect single-digit wins.


(* Don't give the ratings method too much credit, as I'm testing it against its own data. But it does at least pass the back-testing smell test).

But the bad news is that Sagarin is therefor correct to slot us in the 70's, whereas we aspire to be 50 or higher.

Yeah, I don't see any reason to think Sagarin's rating is significantly off. But I don't really see any reason to aspire to be 50, either (except of course that 50 is better than 72). My aspiration for the team would be to be #1. Failing that, I want to be in top 25 in one of the published polls that only goes to 25. Failing that, I want to be among the others receiving votes in same. Failing that, I don't care about rankings and just want to win the division (then conference, then bowl game).

Back to the positive side of things -- there really isn't an enormous difference between #50 and #72. Sagarin would have us as a 1.5-pt dog at home to Wazzu (current #50).
On the down side, add another 7pts to that spread against Sagarin #25 Utah, and 17.5pts on top of that to #1 Oregon.
(This post was last modified: 10-15-2013 02:57 PM by JOwl.)
10-15-2013 02:56 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
owl40 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,875
Joined: Sep 2007
Reputation: 77
I Root For: Owls
Location:
Post: #28
RE: Sagarin Week 7
Bowl predictions for C-USA on thread below. The Duke and Iowa match-ups could be interesting for Rice but rest are uninspiring games being predicted (e.g. Toledo, ULM, etc)...Nobody sees us winning C-USA.


http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=654700
10-15-2013 08:24 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
WRCisforgotten79 Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 10,600
Joined: May 2007
Reputation: 50
I Root For: Rice
Location: Houston
Post: #29
RE: Sagarin Week 7
(10-15-2013 12:07 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  I think the biggest buoy to our season is UH at 17. I find that completely unbelievable. That isn't a top 20 squad over there and I think they will get brought back to reality over the next few weeks. Not bad, but more realistic... probably around 40-50 would be my guess... and I suspect that will hurt us.

My system is a snapshot that becomes less blurry as the season progresses. Houston at #17 is too high, but their schedule will resolve that. But, as of now, they deserve that spot. What I have found from years of doing this is that the system, early on, finds both underrated and overrated teams. For example, last week, it had Missouri at #10, while the polls had them at #25 and NR. It did not surprise me that they beat Georgia (I had them at #15). I also think Oklahoma State is overrated (they are not in my top 30).

Houston may be too high at #17, but I think it is ridiculous that they are the ONLY undefeated FBS team that is unranked (with just a handful of votes).
10-15-2013 09:47 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2024 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2024 MyBB Group.