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72% chance Rice beats UTSA
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loki_the_bubba Online
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Post: #1
72% chance Rice beats UTSA
10-10-2013 11:24 AM
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talon owl Offline
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Post: #2
RE: 72% chance Rice beats UTSA
F/+ is not as confident:

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/10...icks-fplus

But both models predict a Rice victory.
10-10-2013 11:31 AM
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I45owl Offline
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RE: 72% chance Rice beats UTSA
By way of comparison, Rice has a better chance of beating UTSA than Marshall does of winning at FAU, per F/+ ... 57.5 vs 55.4 (I had to view a google cache version of the page).
10-10-2013 11:58 AM
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Middle Ages Offline
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Post: #4
RE: 72% chance Rice beats UTSA
(10-10-2013 11:31 AM)talon owl Wrote:  F/+ is not as confident:

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/10...icks-fplus

But both models predict a Rice victory.

It seems all of the quants and betting experts see a 1-3 point game that could go either way.

That notwithstanding, It seems to me that we should win this game handily, like by 2-3 TD's. We handled them easily last year and we are better (or at least we think we are better) this year. I know they have improved too, and the game is in the Alamodome, but I think a 1-3 point victory here is going to leave me feeling much like I have after the last two games- a little sick. And a 1-3 point loss to UTSA, or any loss to them, will be catastrophic to the season IMO.

All of my life I have been 'a win is a win' guy, but I have never seen a schedule like ours this year. The fact that we are either a) playing down to their level, or b) as weak as the teams we are playing, is depressing.
(This post was last modified: 10-10-2013 12:18 PM by Middle Ages.)
10-10-2013 12:17 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #5
RE: 72% chance Rice beats UTSA
(10-10-2013 12:17 PM)Middle Ages Wrote:  I think a 1-3 point victory here is going to leave me feeling much like I have after the last two games- a little sick. And a 1-3 point loss to UTSA, or any loss to them, will be catastrophic to the season IMO.

I am in full agreement with this. I think, too, we need the increase in the perception of the team that a larger win would bring, so maybe future games are not also seen as tossups.

So while not a RUTS person, I am hoping for a solid and decisive win, without the need for fourth quarter or later heroics.

Goes back to turnovers. We need a plus there, preferably in the +3 or better range. They have shown the ability to turn the ball over, and we have shown the ability to capitalize on them. I think a solid running game with Ross maximizes our chances to win the TO battle and the game.
10-10-2013 12:48 PM
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Caelligh Offline
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Post: #6
RE: 72% chance Rice beats UTSA
A prediction for the Game That Will Not Be Seen Outside of Texas:

34 Rice
17 UTSA
10-10-2013 01:18 PM
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RiceDad Offline
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RE: 72% chance Rice beats UTSA
(10-10-2013 01:18 PM)Caelligh Wrote:  A prediction for the Game That Will Not Be Seen Outside of Texas:

And darn little of it, at that.
10-10-2013 01:35 PM
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I45owl Offline
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RE: 72% chance Rice beats UTSA
(10-10-2013 12:17 PM)Middle Ages Wrote:  That notwithstanding, It seems to me that we should win this game handily, like by 2-3 TD's. We handled them easily last year and we are better (or at least we think we are better) this year. I know they have improved too, and the game is in the Alamodome, but I think a 1-3 point victory here is going to leave me feeling much like I have after the last two games- a little sick. And a 1-3 point loss to UTSA, or any loss to them, will be catastrophic to the season IMO.

I'm not really too sure that we are better this year ... certainly the defense is, but I think the offense really misses the tight end production from last year. However, I'm pretty sure that UTSA is better than last year. Their QB looked really good and I think he had a decent supporting staff on offense.

(10-10-2013 12:17 PM)Middle Ages Wrote:  All of my life I have been 'a win is a win' guy, but I have never seen a schedule like ours this year. The fact that we are either a) playing down to their level, or b) as weak as the teams we are playing, is depressing.

I think we should also factor in that the schedule that we are playing is quite a bit better than I had expected. Teams like UH, FAU, Tulane, and UNT are all better than I expected them to be, in some cases (UH), a lot better.
10-10-2013 01:42 PM
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smackdaddy Offline
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Post: #9
RE: 72% chance Rice beats UTSA
Combined, Rice and UTSA will score 54 points.

Combined, Rice and UTSA anagram to "Is A Truce".

Hence, Rice 27, UTSA 27.

But Boswell reneges on the armistice in Overtime with a 54-yard cannonball to secure V-SA day and spark a longstanding war 'twixt Houston and San Antone. "Remember the Alamo!" they cry, "It's cheaper than Hertz!"
10-10-2013 03:05 PM
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ausowl Offline
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Post: #10
RE: 72% chance Rice beats UTSA
Will be disappointed (and surprised) if the Rice D doesn't dominate this game.
10-10-2013 03:32 PM
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Tomball Owl Offline
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Post: #11
RE: 72% chance Rice beats UTSA
(10-10-2013 03:05 PM)smackdaddy Wrote:  But Boswell reneges on the armistice in Overtime with a 54-yard cannonball to secure V-SA day

I hope we don't lose 13 or so yards in our winning overtime possession just so Bos can kick a 54 yarder! Have him kick it as time expires in regulation if necessary.
10-10-2013 03:45 PM
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3-OwlsInTheNest Offline
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Post: #12
RE: 72% chance Rice beats UTSA
(10-10-2013 03:05 PM)smackdaddy Wrote:  Combined, Rice and UTSA will score 54 points.

Combined, Rice and UTSA anagram to "Is A Truce".

Hence, Rice 27, UTSA 27.

But Boswell reneges on the armistice in Overtime with a 54-yard cannonball to secure V-SA day and spark a longstanding war 'twixt Houston and San Antone. "Remember the Alamo!" they cry, "It's cheaper than Hertz!"

Rice 48

UTSA 24
10-10-2013 06:07 PM
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Caelligh Offline
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Post: #13
RE: 72% chance Rice beats UTSA
(10-10-2013 03:05 PM)smackdaddy Wrote:  ...But Boswell reneges on the armistice in Overtime with a 54-yard cannonball to secure V-SA day and spark a longstanding war 'twixt Houston and San Antone. "Remember the Alamo!" they cry, "It's cheaper than Hertz!"

If UTSA is very sad after the loss, will Enterprise pick them up? 03-wink
10-10-2013 06:59 PM
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owlatheart Offline
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RE: 72% chance Rice beats UTSA
Ross, Dillard, Parks, Gaines, Baker and the rest of the "San Antonio Owls" have big games,,,,,,,,Rice wins 37-24
10-10-2013 07:32 PM
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ChicagoOwl (BS '07) Offline
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Post: #15
RE: 72% chance Rice beats UTSA
(10-10-2013 06:59 PM)Caelligh Wrote:  
(10-10-2013 03:05 PM)smackdaddy Wrote:  ...But Boswell reneges on the armistice in Overtime with a 54-yard cannonball to secure V-SA day and spark a longstanding war 'twixt Houston and San Antone. "Remember the Alamo!" they cry, "It's cheaper than Hertz!"

If UTSA is very sad after the loss, will Enterprise pick them up? 03-wink

04-bow04-bow04-bow
10-10-2013 08:02 PM
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greyowl72 Offline
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Post: #16
RE: 72% chance Rice beats UTSA
We finally put it together offensively.

Rice 31 UTSA 21
10-10-2013 08:41 PM
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