(10-08-2013 11:59 AM)Dukes84 Wrote:  I've said it from the beginning of the season....this does not appear to be a playoff team. Can they get better? Certainly. Dukes will have to win at least four of next six to get consideration for at-large berth. That's a tall order. Corners are very vulnerable; d-line while experienced is hardly dominant and same can be said of offensive line; Dae-Quan looks a step slow and does not break tackles typically; and kicking game has been a disaster. Team has also had issues with penalties and turnovers. Tight end has also been a weak spot. And, most importantly, Birdsong has yet to develop into a top-notch QB. His growth and development down the stretch is perhaps the single biggest key to the team, along with cleaning up the mistakes. Integration of Daniel Brown back into the offense and play of Khalid Abdullah have been positives.

Poster in another thread made a valid point with respect to JMU's recruiting strategy. Oftentimes, Dukes are recruiting QBs at the high school level and asking them to play different positions at the next level. That doesn't always work and requires great patience -- see Taylor Reynolds as an example. Matthews has said he puts his best athletes on defense. It would have been interesting to see how Reynolds would have done as a receiver. Needs a lot of work with his ball skills on the defensive side of the ball.

Kicking game - we've been spoiled for a long time. I actually think our punting game is decent. FGs are a function of injury and talent. Usually FCS teams suck in the kicking game, but we have been remarkably consistent there for several years, which is rare.

Great point on the athletes turned into position players. That is easy to forget on Saturdays. I do trust that the coaches have assessed the players better than anyone on this board can in making decisions with said athletes and their current positions.

Here's my thing: The Dukes can beat anybody on the schedule from here on out....unfortunately, the Dukes can also lose to anybody on the schedule from here on out. Should be a hell of a ride and hopefully we can finish the year 4-2!

(10-08-2013 11:59 AM)Dukes84 Wrote:  I've said it from the beginning of the season....this does not appear to be a playoff team. Can they get better? Certainly. Dukes will have to win at least four of next six to get consideration for at-large berth. That's a tall order. Corners are very vulnerable; d-line while experienced is hardly dominant and same can be said of offensive line; Dae-Quan looks a step slow and does not break tackles typically; and kicking game has been a disaster. Team has also had issues with penalties and turnovers. Tight end has also been a weak spot. And, most importantly, Birdsong has yet to develop into a top-notch QB. His growth and development down the stretch is perhaps the single biggest key to the team, along with cleaning up the mistakes. Integration of Daniel Brown back into the offense and play of Khalid Abdullah have been positives.

Your correct that JMU's corners are young, and have been vulnerable, and our OL has been suspect at times. Yet, the main premise of your post that the 2013 JMU team was never, and is not today, a playoff caliber team, is pure blarney. This JMU team can beat, and/or lose, to any team it plays in FCS. That's not to argue that ability to beat any other FCS team makes the 2013 JMU team a lock for the playoffs, or a serious NC contender, but it does make the 2013 Dukes a playoff caliber team.

And while I'm at it, let me share a few other thoughts about your post...

You state JMU's DL isn't dominant. Okay. Have you looked at the stat sheet and checked our opponents rushing record? (102.5 ypg/2.7 ypc). And the number of sacks? (18 for 121 yards lost through 6 games). I don't know how you define "dominant"...but a per carry avg. of only 2.7 yards against our DL and 3 sacks a game sure as heck ain't shabby. At the FCS level, there are few teams with a better DL.

You've also identified our TE as a weak spot. While TE certainly hasn't been the focal point of our passing attack, it's not "weak" either. Deane Cheatham is a TE/FB, and has already caught 10 balls for 123 yards and 2 TDs. Overall, JMU's TEs have caught 16 (out of 106 team completions) for 171 yards and 3 TDs this season...certainly a respectably record to date. Encouragingly, throws to the TE seem to be on the increase over the last couple of games. I think a better description of our talent at TE is "under-utilized"...not "weak".

You also state that Birdsong is "yet to develop into a top-notch QB"...which is true enough...in-as-much he isn't ready for the NFL. Yet, after only 8 starts as a true Sophomore he has put up some solid numbers (137.1 QB rating; 106-174-7; 60.9%; 1312 yards; 11TDs; 56 (longest); 218.7 ypg). No doubt he's made some bad plays...but I argue he's playing well, and his development is trending in the right direction. As you wrote, his growth will play a big part (if not the biggest) in JMU's second half success (or failure). Let's hope MB proves you wrong, and leads this team on a playoff run.

I agree with most of what you say, Horny, except this...."the main premise of your post that the 2013 JMU team was never, and is not today, a playoff caliber team, is pure blarney."

No, it isn't! No way are we ready for prime time. I predict that we are going to have the same problem for the rest of the year. Even if we are ahead early, opponents will out-coach us, adjusting, and kicking us in the bag. We can beat pushovers, no problem, but we are not going to be able to compete with the better teams in the CAA, all of which are on our schedule, and most of them we are playing at their place, and all of which are well-coached and will adjust to overcome our strengths, even though we will often have superior talent on the field. We simply have not shown an ability to counter-adjust. I hope I am wrong and I am cheering the Dukes all the way to Frisco. Just my honest evaluation at this point in the season. I see no more than two wins for the remainder of the year, and I hope we can get THAT!

(10-08-2013 06:53 PM)bulldogg Wrote:  I agree with most of what you say, Horny, except this...."the main premise of your post that the 2013 JMU team was never, and is not today, a playoff caliber team, is pure blarney."

No, it isn't! No way are we ready for prime time. I predict that we are going to have the same problem for the rest of the year. Even if we are ahead early, opponents will out-coach us, adjusting, and kicking us in the bag. We can beat pushovers, no problem, but we are not going to be able to compete with the better teams in the CAA, all of which are on our schedule, and most of them we are playing at their place, and all of which are well-coached and will adjust to overcome our strengths, even though we will often have superior talent on the field. We simply have not shown an ability to counter-adjust. I hope I am wrong and I am cheering the Dukes all the way to Frisco. Just my honest evaluation at this point in the season. I see no more than two wins for the remainder of the year, and I hope we can get THAT!

You really think 6-6 is how we finish? 8-4 I think would be the best case scenario for us if we could pull that off, but let's say for argument sake we go 7-5. what are the chances we make the playoffs with that record?

(10-08-2013 05:39 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(10-08-2013 11:59 AM)Dukes84 Wrote:  I've said it from the beginning of the season....this does not appear to be a playoff team. Can they get better? Certainly. Dukes will have to win at least four of next six to get consideration for at-large berth. That's a tall order. Corners are very vulnerable; d-line while experienced is hardly dominant and same can be said of offensive line; Dae-Quan looks a step slow and does not break tackles typically; and kicking game has been a disaster. Team has also had issues with penalties and turnovers. Tight end has also been a weak spot. And, most importantly, Birdsong has yet to develop into a top-notch QB. His growth and development down the stretch is perhaps the single biggest key to the team, along with cleaning up the mistakes. Integration of Daniel Brown back into the offense and play of Khalid Abdullah have been positives.

Your correct that JMU's corners are young, and have been vulnerable, and our OL has been suspect at times. Yet, the main premise of your post that the 2013 JMU team was never, and is not today, a playoff caliber team, is pure blarney. This JMU team can beat, and/or lose, to any team it plays in FCS. That's not to argue that ability to beat any other FCS team makes the 2013 JMU team a lock for the playoffs, or a serious NC contender, but it does make the 2013 Dukes a playoff caliber team.

And while I'm at it, let me share a few other thoughts about your post...

You state JMU's DL isn't dominant. Okay. Have you looked at the stat sheet and checked our opponents rushing record? (102.5 ypg/2.7 ypc). And the number of sacks? (18 for 121 yards lost through 6 games). I don't know how you define "dominant"...but a per carry avg. of only 2.7 yards against our DL and 3 sacks a game sure as heck ain't shabby. At the FCS level, there are few teams with a better DL.

You've also identified our TE as a weak spot. While TE certainly hasn't been the focal point of our passing attack, it's not "weak" either. Deane Cheatham is a TE/FB, and has already caught 10 balls for 123 yards and 2 TDs. Overall, JMU's TEs have caught 16 (out of 106 team completions) for 171 yards and 3 TDs this season...certainly a respectably record to date. Encouragingly, throws to the TE seem to be on the increase over the last couple of games. I think a better description of our talent at TE is "under-utilized"...not "weak".

You also state that Birdsong is "yet to develop into a top-notch QB"...which is true enough...in-as-much he isn't ready for the NFL. Yet, after only 8 starts as a true Sophomore he has put up some solid numbers (137.1 QB rating; 106-174-7; 60.9%; 1312 yards; 11TDs; 56 (longest); 218.7 ypg). No doubt he's made some bad plays...but I argue he's playing well, and his development is trending in the right direction. As you wrote, his growth will play a big part (if not the biggest) in JMU's second half success (or failure). Let's hope MB proves you wrong, and leads this team on a playoff run.

Longhorn --

I would be more than happy to be proven wrong. I'm just relaying what I've seen through the first half of the season, having watched most of the game action played to date, albeit only the DE game in person.

You have to temper any statistical analysis you might cite against the level of competition that JMU has played to date. Akron has won only one game all season and was demolished something like 40 to 3 last weekend versus Ohio. If you go to the Cleveland site, they're trying to figure out how to get another win this season. DE was summarily dismissed by Maine, 62-28, last weekend and I believe they lost to Navy, 51-7. Of course, we lost to both of those teams.

The other four opponents, in no specific order, were Charlotte, CCSU, St. Francis and Albany, hardly a murderer's row. In fact, most disconcerting of those efforts was the near loss to St. Francis, a team that JMU dominated a year ago or so.

If you want to parse my words, then you can certainly find fault. The most, and perhaps only, arguable point that I made pertains to the defensive line. The d-line played beautifully against Akron, no question. But that same defense also gave up 22 second half points to DE, albeit on short fields on two occasions, and could not hold Akron when it most mattered. A year ago, this same defensive line could not generate sacks without blitzing. Has the return of Tyler Snow helped? Yes, of course, as he's one of the units better players. We'll see how they do against better competition going forward.

With respect to tight end, Matthews himself called it the weakest part of his team earlier this season. In fact, he just benched Richardson (was that his name) for Josh Hogan in the Albany game.

And with respect to the overall talent level of the team, which I've criticized in other threads, Stephon Robertson himself said that this team was not as talented as those in years past.

Lastly, if you go to the most recent Sagarin ratings, that statistical service does not view JMU as a serious playoff threat at this point, ranking them as the approximate no. 37 1-AA team in the country (I could be off by a few slots because I looked very quickly).

Can this team make a run to the playoffs this season? Yes, they can, but it will be extremely difficult and not likely, in my opinion. I see this team winning somewhere between 5 and 7 games on the season. Let's hope I'm wrong.

(10-08-2013 09:19 PM)Dukes84 Wrote:  

(10-08-2013 05:39 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(10-08-2013 11:59 AM)Dukes84 Wrote:  I've said it from the beginning of the season....this does not appear to be a playoff team. Can they get better? Certainly. Dukes will have to win at least four of next six to get consideration for at-large berth. That's a tall order. Corners are very vulnerable; d-line while experienced is hardly dominant and same can be said of offensive line; Dae-Quan looks a step slow and does not break tackles typically; and kicking game has been a disaster. Team has also had issues with penalties and turnovers. Tight end has also been a weak spot. And, most importantly, Birdsong has yet to develop into a top-notch QB. His growth and development down the stretch is perhaps the single biggest key to the team, along with cleaning up the mistakes. Integration of Daniel Brown back into the offense and play of Khalid Abdullah have been positives.

Your correct that JMU's corners are young, and have been vulnerable, and our OL has been suspect at times. Yet, the main premise of your post that the 2013 JMU team was never, and is not today, a playoff caliber team, is pure blarney. This JMU team can beat, and/or lose, to any team it plays in FCS. That's not to argue that ability to beat any other FCS team makes the 2013 JMU team a lock for the playoffs, or a serious NC contender, but it does make the 2013 Dukes a playoff caliber team.

And while I'm at it, let me share a few other thoughts about your post...

You state JMU's DL isn't dominant. Okay. Have you looked at the stat sheet and checked our opponents rushing record? (102.5 ypg/2.7 ypc). And the number of sacks? (18 for 121 yards lost through 6 games). I don't know how you define "dominant"...but a per carry avg. of only 2.7 yards against our DL and 3 sacks a game sure as heck ain't shabby. At the FCS level, there are few teams with a better DL.

You've also identified our TE as a weak spot. While TE certainly hasn't been the focal point of our passing attack, it's not "weak" either. Deane Cheatham is a TE/FB, and has already caught 10 balls for 123 yards and 2 TDs. Overall, JMU's TEs have caught 16 (out of 106 team completions) for 171 yards and 3 TDs this season...certainly a respectably record to date. Encouragingly, throws to the TE seem to be on the increase over the last couple of games. I think a better description of our talent at TE is "under-utilized"...not "weak".

You also state that Birdsong is "yet to develop into a top-notch QB"...which is true enough...in-as-much he isn't ready for the NFL. Yet, after only 8 starts as a true Sophomore he has put up some solid numbers (137.1 QB rating; 106-174-7; 60.9%; 1312 yards; 11TDs; 56 (longest); 218.7 ypg). No doubt he's made some bad plays...but I argue he's playing well, and his development is trending in the right direction. As you wrote, his growth will play a big part (if not the biggest) in JMU's second half success (or failure). Let's hope MB proves you wrong, and leads this team on a playoff run.

Longhorn --

I would be more than happy to be proven wrong. I'm just relaying what I've seen through the first half of the season, having watched most of the game action played to date, albeit only the DE game in person.

You have to temper any statistical analysis you might cite against the level of competition that JMU has played to date. Akron has won only one game all season and was demolished something like 40 to 3 last weekend versus Ohio. If you go to the Cleveland site, they're trying to figure out how to get another win this season. DE was summarily dismissed by Maine, 62-28, last weekend and I believe they lost to Navy, 51-7. Of course, we lost to both of those teams.

The other four opponents, in no specific order, were Charlotte, CCSU, St. Francis and Albany, hardly a murderer's row. In fact, most disconcerting of those efforts was the near loss to St. Francis, a team that JMU dominated a year ago or so.

If you want to parse my words, then you can certainly find fault. The most, and perhaps only, arguable point that I made pertains to the defensive line. The d-line played beautifully against Akron, no question. But that same defense also gave up 22 second half points to DE, albeit on short fields on two occasions, and could not hold Akron when it most mattered. A year ago, this same defensive line could not generate sacks without blitzing. Has the return of Tyler Snow helped? Yes, of course, as he's one of the units better players. We'll see how they do against better competition going forward.

With respect to tight end, Matthews himself called it the weakest part of his team earlier this season. In fact, he just benched Richardson (was that his name) for Josh Hogan in the Albany game.

And with respect to the overall talent level of the team, which I've criticized in other threads, Stephon Robertson himself said that this team was not as talented as those in years past.

Lastly, if you go to the most recent Sagarin ratings, that statistical service does not view JMU as a serious playoff threat at this point, ranking them as the approximate no. 37 1-AA team in the country (I could be off by a few slots because I looked very quickly).

Can this team make a run to the playoffs this season? Yes, they can, but it will be extremely difficult and not likely, in my opinion. I see this team winning somewhere between 5 and 7 games on the season. Let's hope I'm wrong.

We can go back and forth all night...my point is the current Dukes are of playoff caliber. Whether they make the playoffs or not, they are more than capable of making the playoffs.

Oh, and the DL didn't lose the game against Akron. Had our DBs been less prone to giving up long passes we might have won. And you can't fault a DL against UD when they were placed on the 15 yard line in back to back scenarios.

Don't disagree that this team could win as few as 5 games...but they could also win as many as 10.

(10-07-2013 10:53 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  as worthless as tits on a bull.

DING DING DING!!! I believe we have our first "tits on a bull" comment from BDK! See you guys next year... same time, same topic, same quote. Goodnight!

(10-09-2013 08:02 AM)Jay M. Youix Wrote:  

(10-07-2013 10:53 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  as worthless as tits on a bull.

DING DING DING!!! I believe we have our first "tits on a bull" comment from BDK! See you guys next year... same time, same topic, same quote. Goodnight!

No, I said it in the pre season as well. A 1-3 UNH being ranked in mid Oct after week 7 proves that's still the case. They've only beaten a horrible 1-4 Colgate team that lost to Albany. People say yeah, but the past...ok then, going back their last 6 games to last season:
L Towson 64-35
L @ Wofford 20-6
L @ Cent Mich 24-21
W Colgate 53-23 (horrible 1-4 Colgate team that lost to Albany)
L @ Lehigh 34-27
L @ Towson 44-28

They are the most over rated team in the country...

(10-09-2013 08:02 AM)Jay M. Youix Wrote:  

(10-07-2013 10:53 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  as worthless as tits on a bull.

DING DING DING!!! I believe we have our first "tits on a bull" comment from BDK! See you guys next year... same time, same topic, same quote. Goodnight!

He's been using that phrase for the last 20 years.

(10-08-2013 03:22 PM)bulldogg Wrote:  Our performance thus far does not indicate that we are a playoff team. Far from it. At the risk of sounding like a hopeless pessimist.... I don't see another win on our schedule, POSSIBLY Stony Stream, and if we catch another team on our schedule sleeping we may squeak out another victory. We have some outstanding individual talent throughout a pretty young team. The problem is at the top. In years past we probably could have gotten into the playoffs with this team. Not this year. Too many talented teams in the CAA. I apologize for the reality check.

This is not a reality check. Just another opinion.

(10-08-2013 08:54 PM)jmu@uva Wrote:  You really think 6-6 is how we finish? 8-4 I think would be the best case scenario for us if we could pull that off, but let's say for argument sake we go 7-5. what are the chances we make the playoffs with that record?

I don't think 7-5 makes it in this year from the CAA, and especially not with our OOC. Big Sky will likely have too many teams at least 8-4, and the committee would rather put a second MEAC team into the field if they can. The only saving grace for the CAA this year is that the SoCon looks more and more like a one-bid league. Hopefully the Big South and Patriot will beat each other up, or they could steal some extra bids this year, too.

(10-09-2013 04:51 PM)JMUSuperfan2000 Wrote:  

(10-08-2013 08:54 PM)jmu@uva Wrote:  You really think 6-6 is how we finish? 8-4 I think would be the best case scenario for us if we could pull that off, but let's say for argument sake we go 7-5. what are the chances we make the playoffs with that record?

I don't think 7-5 makes it in this year from the CAA, and especially not with our OOC. Big Sky will likely have too many teams at least 8-4, and the committee would rather put a second MEAC team into the field if they can. The only saving grace for the CAA this year is that the SoCon looks more and more like a one-bid league. Hopefully the Big South and Patriot will beat each other up, or they could steal some extra bids this year, too.

Agreed on 7-5. I think the chance of any 7-5 team in the nation getting in is close to zero.

I think 8-4 out of the CAA has a 90+% chance of getting in.

Patriot will have 2 (whoever wins the AQ and Fordham, who is ineligible for the Patriot AQ but who will likely finish 11-1 or 12-0 with wins already over VU, Temple, and Lehigh).

Big South will likely have 2, even though 3 of the 4 candidates to get in play TWO Div II....

But there are a ton of other questions:
-Will the Big Sky get 3 or 4?
-Will the MVFC get 3 or 4?
-Will the So-Con get 1 or 2?
-Will the Southland get 1 or 2?
-Will the OVC get 1 or 2?
-Will the MEAC get 1 or 2

The only locks to get only 1 team in are the Pioneer and NEC...

Remember, the majority of teams out there play a Div II....

(10-08-2013 03:22 PM)bulldogg Wrote:  Our performance thus far does not indicate that we are a playoff team. Far from it. At the risk of sounding like a hopeless pessimist.... I don't see another win on our schedule, POSSIBLY Stony Stream, and if we catch another team on our schedule sleeping we may squeak out another victory. We have some outstanding individual talent throughout a pretty young team. The problem is at the top. In years past we probably could have gotten into the playoffs with this team. Not this year. Too many talented teams in the CAA. I apologize for the reality check.

And Richmond..

Fwiw...And....still no Jmu projected https://twitter.com/craighaley/status/38...4580000768

Just Maine, nova and Towson from CAA

(10-13-2013 10:57 AM)jmusuperfan Wrote:  Fwiw...And....still no Jmu projected https://twitter.com/craighaley/status/38...4580000768

Just Maine, nova and Towson from CAA

And two of the CAA teams in the same bracket. I'd like to have some of the crazy juice the creator of these made-up brackets is drinking.

(10-13-2013 10:57 AM)jmusuperfan Wrote:  Fwiw...And....still no Jmu projected https://twitter.com/craighaley/status/38...4580000768

Just Maine, nova and Towson from CAA

Shocking he only has Fordham a number 5 seed. Perhaps next week he will have them #1 over North Dakota St.

(10-13-2013 11:25 AM)Dukester Wrote:  

(10-13-2013 10:57 AM)jmusuperfan Wrote:  Fwiw...And....still no Jmu projected https://twitter.com/craighaley/status/38...4580000768

Just Maine, nova and Towson from CAA

Shocking he only has Fordham a number 5 seed. Perhaps next week he will have them #1 over North Dakota St.

I know is pretty worthless ... Will be interesting to see the coaches poll tomorrow

(10-13-2013 12:15 PM)jmusuperfan Wrote:  

(10-13-2013 11:25 AM)Dukester Wrote:  

(10-13-2013 10:57 AM)jmusuperfan Wrote:  Fwiw...And....still no Jmu projected https://twitter.com/craighaley/status/38...4580000768

Just Maine, nova and Towson from CAA

Shocking he only has Fordham a number 5 seed. Perhaps next week he will have them #1 over North Dakota St.

I know is pretty worthless ... Will be interesting to see the coaches poll tomorrow

Don't expect a lot of changes - just 3 ranked teams lost. At least in the sportsnetwork top 25.

(10-13-2013 12:20 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(10-13-2013 12:15 PM)jmusuperfan Wrote:  

(10-13-2013 11:25 AM)Dukester Wrote:  

(10-13-2013 10:57 AM)jmusuperfan Wrote:  Fwiw...And....still no Jmu projected https://twitter.com/craighaley/status/38...4580000768

Just Maine, nova and Towson from CAA

Shocking he only has Fordham a number 5 seed. Perhaps next week he will have them #1 over North Dakota St.

I know is pretty worthless ... Will be interesting to see the coaches poll tomorrow

Don't expect a lot of changes - just 3 ranked teams lost. At least in the sportsnetwork top 25.

Coaches poll should be better