(10-09-2013 12:18 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-09-2013 11:58 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  Worst: 7-5
Best: 10-2

Most likely 8-4

So what are the three toss-up games, and which two of them are we likely to lose?

Of late, every game has been a toss-up.

(10-08-2013 06:15 PM)smackdaddy Wrote:  

(10-08-2013 03:36 PM)OwlFan98 Wrote:  

(10-08-2013 02:58 PM)07owl Wrote:  Projected BCS Rankings here: http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings/bcs/#

Check out who's right ahead of us

And, for that matter, who's right behind us.

Interesting--and relevant this week--who's tied at #101.

And Vegas has us as a 1-point underdog in San Antonio. That's a lot of parity between 58 and 101.

Betting lines are based on the perceptions of the betting public.

(10-09-2013 12:18 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-09-2013 11:58 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  Worst: 7-5
Best: 10-2

Most likely 8-4

So what are the three toss-up games, and which two of them are we likely to lose?

I'm assuming that TAMU and UH were certain losses, KU, Tulane, UNT, UTSA were likely to produce 2-3 losses, and possibly one other (esp. Tulsa on the road). It's a probabilistic prediction, ignoring the fact that Rice has already beaten KU and Tulsa.

I'd also presume that factoring in the rankings and the fact that Rice beat KU and Tulsa already, the likely results will jump to 9-3, worst likely outcome to 8-4, and obviously the best result can't change from 10-2.

i took it to be starting from now, with 3 assured wins and 2 losses. if from this point the most likely is 2 more losses, out of 3 possible, I would expect those three to be unt, utsa, and Tulane. I was wondering which of those were the most likely losses.

(10-09-2013 01:48 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  i took it to be starting from now, with 3 assured wins and 2 losses. if from this point the most likely is 2 more losses, out of 3 possible, I would expect those three to be unt, utsa, and Tulane. I was wondering which of those were the most likely losses.

Ok, that's not really what I intended to ask, I meant that if all you knew were that these were the relative rankings of the teams (no results predetermined ... aka games already played... for this calculation), what would the expected record be?

But I guess we have to see how WRC interpreted and answered my question.

Various rankings systems would compute that differently ... I think Boyd Nation's ISR would make the head-to-head probabilities pretty easy to compute, and then the expected record would fall out of that. I have no idea of how to do that for Sagarin, Massey, or WRC's rankings.

UTSA is very dangerous at home and a 1 pt underdog is about right. Our offense better play better (no turnovers) an our play calling needs to improve or we will loose.

(10-09-2013 02:32 PM)OldOwl Wrote:  UTSA is very dangerous at home and a 1 pt underdog is about right. Our offense better play better (no turnovers) an our play calling needs to improve or we will loose.

It's pretty simple...

1) 1H & OT vs. Tulsa Owls offense - good
2) 2H vs. Tulsa Owls offense - bad

If 1) shows up for all or most of the game and the Owls D plays the way it has been, the Owls should win easily.

If 2) shows up for a half or more, the Owls are in trouble.

(10-09-2013 02:32 PM)OldOwl Wrote:  UTSA is very dangerous at home and a 1 pt underdog is about right. Our offense better play better (no turnovers) an our play calling needs to improve or we will loose.

With the offensive firepower UTSA has shown, we need to score some points in the third quarter, too.