Scott Gleeson of USA Today has been counting down the 68 teams that their staff are projecting to make the tournament this year. The first Big East team showed up today at #35, Villanova, a 9 seed. The article says that Villanova would have to fight "4 NCAA tournament-caliber teams" in the league race, naming Marquette, Creighton, Georgetown, and St. John's and implying that all 4 of those will be ranked ahead of Villanova in the next 34.

St. John's showed up today at #32, an 8-seed.

that would seem to guarantee 5 tourney teams from the BE.

(09-26-2013 04:55 PM)stever20 Wrote:  that would seem to guarantee 5 tourney teams from the BE.

Exactly. Frankly, I'm really expecting a big year out of Providence. Very underrated IMO. If they do what I think they will, that's 6, which I think is a very realistic number.

I think it'd be very tough to get 6 teams in quite frankly. I mean, for one, teams 7-10 are not going to go 0-12 vs those 6 teams. They just won't. I just see teams 5 and 6 maybe going 4-2 in those other 6 games, then in the other 12 games I don't know if they can go 4-8 even to get to 8-10. That's going to be a tall order quite frankly- when teams 7-10 could be DePaul, Seton Hall, Butler, and Xavier?

I think another problem could easily be Providence's OOC schedule. It's a 4/10. Kentucky is great, but other than that- it's BC, maybe Maryland and La Salle, and UMass. That's it- and it's not enough. Providence might have to go 11-7 to have a chance quite frankly. If it was like a Xavier challenging for a spot, maybe with their 8/10 rating- they wouldn't have as high of a threshold to get into the tourney. A Providence with a 9-9 conference record likely doesn't get in. A Xavier with a 9-9 conference record likely does get in.

(09-27-2013 12:46 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think it'd be very tough to get 6 teams in quite frankly. I mean, for one, teams 7-10 are not going to go 0-12 vs those 6 teams. They just won't. I just see teams 5 and 6 maybe going 4-2 in those other 6 games, then in the other 12 games I don't know if they can go 4-8 even to get to 8-10. That's going to be a tall order quite frankly- when teams 7-10 could be DePaul, Seton Hall, Butler, and Xavier?

I think another problem could easily be Providence's OOC schedule. It's a 4/10. Kentucky is great, but other than that- it's BC, maybe Maryland and La Salle, and UMass. That's it- and it's not enough. Providence might have to go 11-7 to have a chance quite frankly. If it was like a Xavier challenging for a spot, maybe with their 8/10 rating- they wouldn't have as high of a threshold to get into the tourney. A Providence with a 9-9 conference record likely doesn't get in. A Xavier with a 9-9 conference record likely does get in.

I see PC as better than 9-9 and don't see either St. John's or PC as the 6th team. I think that both are being underrated. I expect to see them in the top 5.

I don't see them better than Georgetown/Villanova/Creighton/Marquette. Definitely not Georgetown/Creigton/Marquette.

For Providence to be 10-8 even- They would have to sweep Xavier, Butler, Seton Hall, and DePaul- and then win 2 games against Georgetown/Villanova/Creighton/Marquette/St John's. I sure don't see a sweep of those other 4 teams, so probably would have to be getting 4-5 wins against the top 5. That's a lot.

Bottom line as well, there will be a 6th place team that is 9-9. The teams that it's possible for- St John's, Providence,Villanova- their OOC schedules aren't great. Even Villanova. ESPN had them at 8/10- but in their blurb about it- that's more about how tough mentally the games are than how tough they are on paper. Computers won't care that St Joe's or Penn are Big 5 teams. To me, the St John's schedule is at least as tough in reality, and they gave them only a 6. Think that's more realistic for what the impact on the RPI would be. Esp if Temple and La Salle fall some this season.

(09-27-2013 12:46 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think it'd be very tough to get 6 teams in quite frankly. I mean, for one, teams 7-10 are not going to go 0-12 vs those 6 teams. They just won't. I just see teams 5 and 6 maybe going 4-2 in those other 6 games, then in the other 12 games I don't know if they can go 4-8 even to get to 8-10. That's going to be a tall order quite frankly- when teams 7-10 could be DePaul, Seton Hall, Butler, and Xavier?

I think another problem could easily be Providence's OOC schedule. It's a 4/10. Kentucky is great, but other than that- it's BC, maybe Maryland and La Salle, and UMass. That's it- and it's not enough. Providence might have to go 11-7 to have a chance quite frankly. If it was like a Xavier challenging for a spot, maybe with their 8/10 rating- they wouldn't have as high of a threshold to get into the tourney. A Providence with a 9-9 conference record likely doesn't get in. A Xavier with a 9-9 conference record likely does get in.

And this is why we will eventually go to 12. It'll protect against that bad year w/ 3 bids (say everyone beat up on each other so a lot of around .500 records).

That's also why the teams we add don't NEED to be freakin' world beaters, which is why SLU's margin for error is very generous.

(09-27-2013 10:10 AM)aughnanure Wrote:  

(09-27-2013 12:46 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think it'd be very tough to get 6 teams in quite frankly. I mean, for one, teams 7-10 are not going to go 0-12 vs those 6 teams. They just won't. I just see teams 5 and 6 maybe going 4-2 in those other 6 games, then in the other 12 games I don't know if they can go 4-8 even to get to 8-10. That's going to be a tall order quite frankly- when teams 7-10 could be DePaul, Seton Hall, Butler, and Xavier?

I think another problem could easily be Providence's OOC schedule. It's a 4/10. Kentucky is great, but other than that- it's BC, maybe Maryland and La Salle, and UMass. That's it- and it's not enough. Providence might have to go 11-7 to have a chance quite frankly. If it was like a Xavier challenging for a spot, maybe with their 8/10 rating- they wouldn't have as high of a threshold to get into the tourney. A Providence with a 9-9 conference record likely doesn't get in. A Xavier with a 9-9 conference record likely does get in.

And this is why we will eventually go to 12. It'll protect against that bad year w/ 3 bids (say everyone beat up on each other so a lot of around .500 records).

That's also why the teams we add don't NEED to be freakin' world beaters, which is why SLU's margin for error is very generous.

I think you are wrong about the teams we add. We don't need to be adding stiffs to just prop up everyone elses records. Not saying SLU is a stiff, but like we should say we'll just add Dayton over VCU even though VCU is 1000% stronger than Dayton- just to prop up everyone elses records.

I think Big 12 last 2 years a very good comparison.

in 2011-12- Big 12 was the #2 conference in Ken Pom....
Texas finished 6th at 9-9. Made the tourney finishing 9-9 losing sf of conference tourney, and 20-13 overall...

Their OOC had games with #85 Oregon St, #35 NC State, #43 UCLA, #46 Temple, #7 UNC. So a very good OOC schedule- definitely way stronger than the schedules that St John's, Villanova, or Providence are playing this year.

All they wound up with was a 11 seed- and they were the last team to get a bye out of the first 4 games. Not exactly a great precident when you look especially at the OOC schedules.

(09-27-2013 10:31 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-27-2013 10:10 AM)aughnanure Wrote:  

(09-27-2013 12:46 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think it'd be very tough to get 6 teams in quite frankly. I mean, for one, teams 7-10 are not going to go 0-12 vs those 6 teams. They just won't. I just see teams 5 and 6 maybe going 4-2 in those other 6 games, then in the other 12 games I don't know if they can go 4-8 even to get to 8-10. That's going to be a tall order quite frankly- when teams 7-10 could be DePaul, Seton Hall, Butler, and Xavier?

I think another problem could easily be Providence's OOC schedule. It's a 4/10. Kentucky is great, but other than that- it's BC, maybe Maryland and La Salle, and UMass. That's it- and it's not enough. Providence might have to go 11-7 to have a chance quite frankly. If it was like a Xavier challenging for a spot, maybe with their 8/10 rating- they wouldn't have as high of a threshold to get into the tourney. A Providence with a 9-9 conference record likely doesn't get in. A Xavier with a 9-9 conference record likely does get in.

And this is why we will eventually go to 12. It'll protect against that bad year w/ 3 bids (say everyone beat up on each other so a lot of around .500 records).

That's also why the teams we add don't NEED to be freakin' world beaters, which is why SLU's margin for error is very generous.

I think you are wrong about the teams we add. We don't need to be adding stiffs to just prop up everyone elses records. Not saying SLU is a stiff, but like we should say we'll just add Dayton over VCU even though VCU is 1000% stronger than Dayton- just to prop up everyone elses records.

Did i say "stiffs"? Also, stop talking in such hyperbole. VCU is not 1000 times better or stronger or whatever than Dayton.

I'm not pro-Dayton, but if you don't see their advantages then I don't know what to tell you.

(09-27-2013 12:09 PM)aughnanure Wrote:  

(09-27-2013 10:31 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-27-2013 10:10 AM)aughnanure Wrote:  

(09-27-2013 12:46 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think it'd be very tough to get 6 teams in quite frankly. I mean, for one, teams 7-10 are not going to go 0-12 vs those 6 teams. They just won't. I just see teams 5 and 6 maybe going 4-2 in those other 6 games, then in the other 12 games I don't know if they can go 4-8 even to get to 8-10. That's going to be a tall order quite frankly- when teams 7-10 could be DePaul, Seton Hall, Butler, and Xavier?

I think another problem could easily be Providence's OOC schedule. It's a 4/10. Kentucky is great, but other than that- it's BC, maybe Maryland and La Salle, and UMass. That's it- and it's not enough. Providence might have to go 11-7 to have a chance quite frankly. If it was like a Xavier challenging for a spot, maybe with their 8/10 rating- they wouldn't have as high of a threshold to get into the tourney. A Providence with a 9-9 conference record likely doesn't get in. A Xavier with a 9-9 conference record likely does get in.

And this is why we will eventually go to 12. It'll protect against that bad year w/ 3 bids (say everyone beat up on each other so a lot of around .500 records).

That's also why the teams we add don't NEED to be freakin' world beaters, which is why SLU's margin for error is very generous.

I think you are wrong about the teams we add. We don't need to be adding stiffs to just prop up everyone elses records. Not saying SLU is a stiff, but like we should say we'll just add Dayton over VCU even though VCU is 1000% stronger than Dayton- just to prop up everyone elses records.

Did i say "stiffs"? Also, stop talking in such hyperbole. VCU is not 1000 times better or stronger or whatever than Dayton.

I'm not pro-Dayton, but if you don't see their advantages then I don't know what to tell you.

The presidents, TV execs and AD's know what the four being considered bring to the table. Thats all that matters.

(09-27-2013 12:09 PM)aughnanure Wrote:  

(09-27-2013 10:31 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-27-2013 10:10 AM)aughnanure Wrote:  

(09-27-2013 12:46 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think it'd be very tough to get 6 teams in quite frankly. I mean, for one, teams 7-10 are not going to go 0-12 vs those 6 teams. They just won't. I just see teams 5 and 6 maybe going 4-2 in those other 6 games, then in the other 12 games I don't know if they can go 4-8 even to get to 8-10. That's going to be a tall order quite frankly- when teams 7-10 could be DePaul, Seton Hall, Butler, and Xavier?

I think another problem could easily be Providence's OOC schedule. It's a 4/10. Kentucky is great, but other than that- it's BC, maybe Maryland and La Salle, and UMass. That's it- and it's not enough. Providence might have to go 11-7 to have a chance quite frankly. If it was like a Xavier challenging for a spot, maybe with their 8/10 rating- they wouldn't have as high of a threshold to get into the tourney. A Providence with a 9-9 conference record likely doesn't get in. A Xavier with a 9-9 conference record likely does get in.

And this is why we will eventually go to 12. It'll protect against that bad year w/ 3 bids (say everyone beat up on each other so a lot of around .500 records).

That's also why the teams we add don't NEED to be freakin' world beaters, which is why SLU's margin for error is very generous.

I think you are wrong about the teams we add. We don't need to be adding stiffs to just prop up everyone elses records. Not saying SLU is a stiff, but like we should say we'll just add Dayton over VCU even though VCU is 1000% stronger than Dayton- just to prop up everyone elses records.

Did i say "stiffs"? Also, stop talking in such hyperbole. VCU is not 1000 times better or stronger or whatever than Dayton.

I'm not pro-Dayton, but if you don't see their advantages then I don't know what to tell you.

What has Dayton done on the floor recently? 2 tourney wins in 29 years? Wow, earth shaking. 3 tourney spots in 11 years. VCU has done as much in the last 3 years than Dayton in the last 29 years. That's sad.

And what you said is the teams coming in don't need to be world beaters. If they aren't a world beater they're a stiff. You would be fine to have the 2 new teams come in and DePaul all over themselves. That does us no good at all. Especially if they were like Dayton and not that good recently.

(09-27-2013 10:10 AM)aughnanure Wrote:  

(09-27-2013 12:46 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think it'd be very tough to get 6 teams in quite frankly. I mean, for one, teams 7-10 are not going to go 0-12 vs those 6 teams. They just won't. I just see teams 5 and 6 maybe going 4-2 in those other 6 games, then in the other 12 games I don't know if they can go 4-8 even to get to 8-10. That's going to be a tall order quite frankly- when teams 7-10 could be DePaul, Seton Hall, Butler, and Xavier?

I think another problem could easily be Providence's OOC schedule. It's a 4/10. Kentucky is great, but other than that- it's BC, maybe Maryland and La Salle, and UMass. That's it- and it's not enough. Providence might have to go 11-7 to have a chance quite frankly. If it was like a Xavier challenging for a spot, maybe with their 8/10 rating- they wouldn't have as high of a threshold to get into the tourney. A Providence with a 9-9 conference record likely doesn't get in. A Xavier with a 9-9 conference record likely does get in.

And this is why we will eventually go to 12. It'll protect against that bad year w/ 3 bids (say everyone beat up on each other so a lot of around .500 records).

That's also why the teams we add don't NEED to be freakin' world beaters, which is why SLU's margin for error is very generous.

Adding mediocre programs doesn't protect the conference against anything. They just water it down and thereby weaken it.

(09-27-2013 03:34 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(09-27-2013 10:10 AM)aughnanure Wrote:  

(09-27-2013 12:46 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think it'd be very tough to get 6 teams in quite frankly. I mean, for one, teams 7-10 are not going to go 0-12 vs those 6 teams. They just won't. I just see teams 5 and 6 maybe going 4-2 in those other 6 games, then in the other 12 games I don't know if they can go 4-8 even to get to 8-10. That's going to be a tall order quite frankly- when teams 7-10 could be DePaul, Seton Hall, Butler, and Xavier?

I think another problem could easily be Providence's OOC schedule. It's a 4/10. Kentucky is great, but other than that- it's BC, maybe Maryland and La Salle, and UMass. That's it- and it's not enough. Providence might have to go 11-7 to have a chance quite frankly. If it was like a Xavier challenging for a spot, maybe with their 8/10 rating- they wouldn't have as high of a threshold to get into the tourney. A Providence with a 9-9 conference record likely doesn't get in. A Xavier with a 9-9 conference record likely does get in.

And this is why we will eventually go to 12. It'll protect against that bad year w/ 3 bids (say everyone beat up on each other so a lot of around .500 records).

That's also why the teams we add don't NEED to be freakin' world beaters, which is why SLU's margin for error is very generous.

Adding mediocre programs doesn't protect the conference against anything. They just water it down and thereby weaken it.

Like Colorado to the Pac or Maryland to the B1G?

Maryland in basketball does not hurt the Big Ten one bit.

(09-28-2013 12:39 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Maryland in basketball does not hurt the Big Ten one bit.

Too bad they weren't added for BBall. P5 leagues expand because of FB and thats it.

On a couple of threads, a poster has begun criticizing PC's ooc schedule. While it's not a 10, it's not horrible. The analyst who tagged it as a 4 of 10 may not have looked at the whole picture.

Sample:
vs Boston College <--- ACC.
vs Vanderbilt <--- SEC. (Paradise Jam)
vs Maryland, ACC. -or- vs LaSalle, A-10 top-4 team. (Paradise Jam).
vs Kentucky <--- SEC, top-5 in nation. (in Brooklyn).
at Rhode Island, A-10 top-6 team.
at UMass, A-10 top-4 team.
So 6 solid games, including vs Kentucky.

the others are a 3rd at the Paradise Jam; then vs the locals Fairfield (MAAC title contender), Brown, Yale, Maine, Vermont and Marist.

a poster? Really billyjack?

Boston College and Vandy BOTH were 16-17. Losing records. You have to work hard to finish with a losing record...
Rhode Island finished 8-21.

UMass isn't a A10 top 4 team at all. VCU, SLU, Dayton, and La Salle all projected higher...

So all of 3 games are what folks would look at as solid.

Also you have to remember that OOC schedules have generally improved now. Maybe 10 years ago, that's a good OOC schedule. Not any longer.

bottom line- Providence has 2 teams that are projected to make the tourney. Compare to a team they gave a 8/10 on.-Xavier...
games natural with Tennessee, Cincy, and Alabama
Battle 4 Atlantis where they see Iowa, followed by Tennessee again if they win(or CUSA favorite UTEP if they lose), then in the last game against one of likely Wake Forest, Villanova, or USC(or Kansas if they make the title game). That's right there potentially 6 solid games with at least 4 guaranteed.

That's like at least 3-4 that are projected to make the tourney. So like if Xavier and Providence finished with the same record, Xavier's got a whole heck of a lot better shot to make the tourney.

Also- the only tourney team that Providence is guaranteed to play is Kentucky. Providence has to beat Vandy to just play La Salle. Then beat La Salle to play Maryland. a 1st round loss, and they're playing Morgan St and Northern Iowa or Loyola Marymount.