Next week I'll add in winless teams and maybe 1 loss teams (although I'll probably wait a week or two on that).

Teams with 1st loss week 3: 15

Troy
Bowling Green
East Carolina
Nebraska
Boston College
Duke
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Ball State
Penn State
Illinois
Kansas
Marshall
Utah
Wisconsin


Week 2 thoughts: This was Big Ten vs. PAC-12 week with 4 undefeated Big Ten teams playing 3 undefeated PAC-12 teams (the 4th being Cal). The PAC-12 won 3 of the 4 (although in somewhat controversial fashion in Arizona State/Wisconsin). Combine that with Michigan's odd struggle against Akron (at least odd given the fact Indiana easily beat a MAC team that looked a lot better) and an undefeated PAC-12 team might get the benefit of the doubt over an undefeated Big Ten team come December.

The biggest single game this week was against unbeaten Texas A&M vs. Alabama. With Alabama winning, they are the clear frontrunner to win the SEC West at least.

The non-AQ ranks are clearing out a lot. Conference USA lost its last remaining unbeaten teams with Marshall and East Carolina loosing and is effectively eliminated from the BCS race. The MAC is down to just Northern Illinois (last year's Orange Bowl team) with losses from Ball State and Bowling Green. The Sunbelt is down to just Texas State and Fresno State remains the Mountain West's unbeaten (didn't play this week because of the floods in Colorado). In the independent ranks, Navy remains unbeaten.

Week 3 Thoughts: We have 4 games of undefeated I-A schools playing each other this week. They are #23 Arizonia State at #5 Stanford, Auburn at #6 LSU, Texas State @ #25 Texas Tech, and #3 Clemson @ North Carolina State (Thursday). Other games of note, Fresno State hosts Boise State this Friday and unbeaten Michigan State plays at Notre Dame.


Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 6, American Athletic: 3, Big 12: 4, Big Ten: 5, Conference USA: 0, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 7, SEC: 6, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 35

Clemson
Florida State
Maryland
North Carolina State
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
Baylor
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Louisville
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Northwestern
Ohio State
Central Florida
Houston
Northern Illinois
Fresno State
Oregon
Stanford
Washington
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
UCLA
Missouri
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
LSU
Ole Miss
Texas State
Navy

wow, so down to only 3 BCS busters potentially...

one thing to remember, with the 6 AQ conferences all looking like they'll have top 12 schools, looks like the threshold will be top 12 this year for non-AQ. Not like last year where NIU got in at 15 because of Louisville and Wisconsin. Could easily be down to just NIU after this weekend....

(09-17-2013 09:13 AM)stever20 Wrote:  wow, so down to only 3 BCS busters potentially...

one thing to remember, with the 6 AQ conferences all looking like they'll have top 12 schools, looks like the threshold will be top 12 this year for non-AQ. Not like last year where NIU got in at 15 because of Louisville and Wisconsin. Could easily be down to just NIU after this weekend....

Hard to say at this point. All it takes is one non-top team to win a conference. That could come from a surprise CCG winner or simply because everyone beats up everyone else in conference.

Thing is, AAC looks like either Louisville or UCF(who would be BCS ranked this week). Big Ten won't have Ohio St sitting out this year like last year. ACC won't have Miami sitting out this year.

(09-17-2013 09:15 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  

(09-17-2013 09:13 AM)stever20 Wrote:  wow, so down to only 3 BCS busters potentially...

one thing to remember, with the 6 AQ conferences all looking like they'll have top 12 schools, looks like the threshold will be top 12 this year for non-AQ. Not like last year where NIU got in at 15 because of Louisville and Wisconsin. Could easily be down to just NIU after this weekend....

Hard to say at this point. All it takes is one non-top team to win a conference. That could come from a surprise CCG winner or simply because everyone beats up everyone else in conference.

Yep, pretty much anybody beating OSU in the CCG would change it.

(09-17-2013 09:43 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(09-17-2013 09:15 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  

(09-17-2013 09:13 AM)stever20 Wrote:  wow, so down to only 3 BCS busters potentially...

one thing to remember, with the 6 AQ conferences all looking like they'll have top 12 schools, looks like the threshold will be top 12 this year for non-AQ. Not like last year where NIU got in at 15 because of Louisville and Wisconsin. Could easily be down to just NIU after this weekend....

Hard to say at this point. All it takes is one non-top team to win a conference. That could come from a surprise CCG winner or simply because everyone beats up everyone else in conference.

Yep, pretty much anybody beating OSU in the CCG would change it.

actually if it's Michigan or Nothwestern, either should be ranked pretty highly. Michigan is 15 and Northwestern is 18. Michigan only has Northwestern and Ohio St left that are ranked. Northwestern only has those 2 plus Wisconsin. Odds are pretty good that one of those gets to the title game at 11-1. That'll be top 12 at least.

(09-16-2013 08:49 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  Next week I'll add in winless teams and maybe 1 loss teams (although I'll probably wait a week or two on that).

Teams with 1st loss week 3: 15

Troy
Bowling Green
East Carolina
Nebraska
Boston College
Duke
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Ball State
Penn State
Illinois
Kansas
Marshall
Utah
Wisconsin


Week 2 thoughts: This was Big Ten vs. PAC-12 week with 4 undefeated Big Ten teams playing 3 undefeated PAC-12 teams (the 4th being Cal). The PAC-12 won 3 of the 4 (although in somewhat controversial fashion in Arizona State/Wisconsin). Combine that with Michigan's odd struggle against Akron (at least odd given the fact Indiana easily beat a MAC team that looked a lot better) and an undefeated PAC-12 team might get the benefit of the doubt over an undefeated Big Ten team come December.

The biggest single game this week was against unbeaten Texas A&M vs. Alabama. With Alabama winning, they are the clear frontrunner to win the SEC West at least.

The non-AQ ranks are clearing out a lot. Conference USA lost its last remaining unbeaten teams with Marshall and East Carolina loosing and is effectively eliminated from the BCS race. The MAC is down to just Northern Illinois (last year's Orange Bowl team) with losses from Ball State and Bowling Green. The Sunbelt is down to just Texas State and Fresno State remains the Mountain West's unbeaten (didn't play this week because of the floods in Colorado). In the independent ranks, Navy remains unbeaten.

Week 3 Thoughts: We have 4 games of undefeated I-A schools playing each other this week. They are #23 Arizonia State at #5 Stanford, Auburn at #6 LSU, Texas State @ #25 Texas Tech, and #3 Clemson @ North Carolina State (Thursday). Other games of note, Fresno State hosts Boise State this Friday and unbeaten Michigan State plays at Notre Dame.


Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 6, American Athletic: 3, Big 12: 4, Big Ten: 5, Conference USA: 0, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 7, SEC: 6, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 35

Clemson
Florida State
Maryland
North Carolina State
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
Baylor
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Louisville
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Northwestern
Ohio State
Central Florida
Houston
Northern Illinois
Fresno State
Oregon
Stanford
Washington
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
UCLA
Missouri
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
LSU
Ole Miss
Texas State
Navy

Take Michigan off the list (overrated)…. It almost lost at home to a school that should have been blown out…

(09-17-2013 12:52 PM)Underdog Wrote:  Take Michigan off the list (overrated)…. It almost lost at home to a school that should have been blown out…

Which is why college football seems so unpredictable at points. Going into this week, Bowling Green looked like a good MAC team, Akron looked like a lower tier one. Indiana looked like a wrech while Michigan looked like a very strong Big Ten team.

Naturally, Indiana blows out Bowling Green and Michigan barely escapes Akron.

Let's predict which of these undefeated teams will lose this week. My picks:

Arizona State
Arkansas
Auburn
Fresno State
Houston
Maryland
Minnesota
North Carolina State

That would still leave 27 undefeated teams after Week 4, which seems like a lot, so maybe this list should be longer.

last year after week 4 there were 27 undefeated teams.
'11- 22
'10- 25
'09- 17
'08- 27(best comparison of all, due to the fact that it was a similar calendar to this year.)

So, 27 seems to be about normal.
'13 undefeateds after week 3- 35
'12 after week 3- 31
'11- 33
'10- 34
'09- 28
'08- 39

last 5 years- average after week 3- 33 this year 35(makes sense with the extra teams for instance)
last 5 years- average after week 4- 23.6

So, this is the week that we normally see a lot of undefeated teams lose- on average almost 10 per year. Last 5 years by end of next week, we're down to 17.4 undefeated teams. So, last 5 years, we've gone from week 3 33 teams undefeated down to week 5 17.4 teams undefeated(losing 15.6). That's like 47% of the undefeated teams.