(09-18-2013 09:25 PM)ohio1317 Wrote: JR,
Very, very much agree that the college/education system is changing. The current model is a complete mess with a normal undergrad education being what a high school education used to be worth only with a lot more debt.
The student loan model is one of the worst set-ups in the country and that's saying something.
1. We, throughout high schools, emphasize a college education and don't get nearly as much into the costs and risks.
2. Student loans are easy to get, but impossible to get out of in bankruptcy (unlike virtually any other kind of debt). The results is banks (through federal programs) being willing to offer a lot to students regardless of chances of success.
3. Since colleges know student loans are easy, when faced with decisions (say to cut back on facility wage or raise tuition), they often choose to raise tuition. A tough economy helps them continue to get students too.
If risk for loans were greater, they'd be harder to get, but we'd also de-emphasize the importance of a traditional college education (meaning everyone wouldn't need one) and a much higher percent of students would be in majors that would provide jobs.
This bubble won't keep though. Student loans is the only major area in the private economy with debt continuing to increase. The federal government is the other place that is happening. I personally think we are heading to an economic collapse that will make the Great Depression look good, but even if I'm wrong and it's much smaller, I expect a big consolidation of schools.
As this relates to expansion though, I think that's the next step not the last. I think the leaders of the major conferences aren't going 2-3 steps ahead. I think the Big Ten considered going to 14 or 16 when they invited Nebraska and decided it wasn't worth it. They changed their mind after the PAC-12 alliance fell through and the ACC expanded so much in the east. The SEC leaders went to 14 because of A&M (with Missouri being a good 2nd) and while open to going further is someone approaches, probably didn't have any plans then or now to expand to 16. It might happen, but it's not something they are sure will happen or they are really planning at the moment.
Going forward though, I think an economic collapse will change a lot. These current huge contracts might not be able to be paid out. If it gets close to as bad as I expect (actually even if its not), ESPN might well have to negotiate these down or else declare bankruptcy which would force them down. Even if I'm wrong on the extent of this, the next round of money decreases at least as real terms (value of dollar to purchase things taking into account actual inflation). In such an environment and with state/federal government greatly diminished, the big schools might be willing to make previously unthinkable choices. It's in that environment that I could see the big schools (say 30-50 biggest) join a single league.
Great reasoning in this post! There is a long intertwined history of the national political events and the Federal Reserve that we should talk about privately sometime, but the Fed policies since the early 1960's have been designed to concentrate wealth and abrogate the rights of the middle class, first by gaining influence through donations to Congress, then by regulations, then oddly by deregulation, and now through conglomerates that essentially control all aspects of elections: contribution amounts, advertising, control of debates, eliminations of third parties, and monopolization of the two main parties. Heck they even project the winner and seldom broadcast the actual vote count, not that it matters much. But it was a practice that lent some credibility to the process.
In preparation for what we agree is the likely direction of the economy our family has already adopted minimalism, saved, and have started to provide some of our own food sources. We are actually way happier than we were as part of the rat race. Unfortunately, Homeland Security has incorporated into its provisions another unconstitutional power, confiscatory authority. I may have to defend my peas, butter beans, squash, okra, and tomatoes. But seriously, I don't think the average American has any concept of how bad, bad could be. Unfortunately Homeland Security in such a scenario would need some fairly broad powers as essentially some form of martial law would have to be invoked.
The downsizing of education would be just the tip of the ice burg for the reduction of government supported industries along with government services that people take for granted. True chaos is the best mental picture I can conjure.
But, in the interim the biggest reason I believe more realignment (consolidation) could take place is simply because of the development of the conference networks. Currently there are only three either operational or in production. Should the ACC not be able to have one that creates pressure and potential economic disparity. The Big 12 still has destabilizing factors in their conference. Disparity in academics, footprint issues, disparity in tier 3 earnings, and quite frankly a disparate culture outside of Texas and Oklahoma. What nobody talks about is that now that Colorado, Nebraska, and Missouri have departed there is little left of the old Big 8 culture and the predominant culture is now really old Southwest Conference culture. Adding T.C.U. didn't help this. Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State have a common culture. West Virginia is unique. And those running the conference are the Texahoma schools. I just don't think this lasts.
I also think that the SEC, Big 10, and PAC all see the future at least dimly and that they want to increase their academic research revenue sharing programs because of it. So the three of them essentially have the same targets. What not many people are realizing is that if there is a breakaway essentially they will be one large unit just under three regional names. The regional names will remain for fan comfort. But eventually the academic sharing will be much broader than the structure imposed for sports play. They will as you suggest be forming one large organization limited to about 4 to 5 dozen schools.
As far as the Big Picture goes you and I disagree mostly on the order and timeline. And I enjoy reading your ideas as they help me rethink and challenge mine.
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Should the SEC's expansion plans be in support of the SECU?
