Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Sagarin after week one
Author Message
owl40 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,875
Joined: Sep 2007
Reputation: 77
I Root For: Owls
Location:
Post: #21
RE: Sagarin after week one
Important to note that Tulsa lost to Bowling Green more than we lost to A&M. All the usual caveats about transitive properties, one game, etc. but all would agree that Bowling Green < A&M. Bottom line is that Tulsa is not the same team. Lost alot of kids, trouble at QB position, and thin. Look at their schedule. It is very possible for them to be 0-4 when they face us and very possible for them not to be over .500 at end-of-season They have at ECU, then Marshall, then at La Tech and then North Texas to finish up.. So even if we theoretically did lose to them, very real scenario that we still would win C-USA west.

http://www.tulsahurricane.com/sports/m-f...sched.html

I don't think they will end-up being our toughest C-USA game given we are in Houston for the entire month of September. Thursday on-the-road at NT b/c of short week and UAB at end-of-season worry me more about laying an egg and being unprepared. We will be fired-up for Tulsa. Kids will be ready to go and we finally have the talent, mojo, etc. to take them down.
09-03-2013 09:14 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Jonathan Sadow Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,104
Joined: Jan 2006
Reputation: 27
I Root For: Strigids
Location:

New Orleans Bowl
Post: #22
RE: Sagarin after week one
(09-03-2013 05:02 PM)owl40 Wrote:  Someday I will understand how this works. It is week one and UTSA beats NM at NM but NM is rated ahead of UTSA. Tulsa is completely blown-out and manhandled against Bowling Green but yet rated 13 places above them. Georgia beat by Clemson but still ranked six places higher than Clemson. Boise St. worked by Washington but ranked higher. Okie St at #2 in country?...Can keep going on and on.. Understand once season goes on and other factors, common opponents, margin of victories, etc. come into play but after week one?

Also, missed Marshall on the list above. Bet the Herd faithful in Huntington not too happy about being in the 90's. That seems a bit of a slight.

Sagarin must have great PR folks for his rankings to be so widely followed and used. Makes no sense to me...

Agree with other posts. We should EXPECT to win out from here.

Sagarin sucks. I use Massey because it's more robust and he doesn't make a big secret out of how his system works. In case you're wondering, here's how he sees Rice's schedule as of now:

3. Texas A&M
78. Louisiana Tech
82. Tulsa
83. Kansas
85. Rice
101. Houston
112. North Texas
120. UTSA
136. UTEP
139. UAB
149. Tulane
156. Florida Atlantic
204. New Mexico State

(09-03-2013 05:52 PM)wrysal Wrote:  Not to burst anyone's bubble, and nobody wants Rice to win out more than me, but looking at our remaining schedule realistically, historically and mathematically, 7 1/2 wins is about where we should end up this year. We also have about a 1.2% chance of winning all our remaining regular season games. These figures are obviously based on one man's opinion, but tell me where I'm off in predicting our odds of winning each remaining game:

In no particular order:
Kansas 60%
@ UH 50%
FAU 90%
@ Tulsa 50%
La Tech 70%
@ UAB 55%
@ UTSA 75%
Tulane 85%
@ NTex 60%
@ NMS 80%
UTEP 75%

Add these percentages up and you get exactly 7.5 wins. You really have to make some optimistic judgments just to get the mean up to 8 wins. Obviously, if we play each game like the 2nd half of Air Force and the first half of a$m (sans the 3rd down drops and the brain fart series) we'll win every game by at least 2 TDs. Our history, both with Bailiff and prior, says that's not going to happen. You guys manuver the percentages to get us to 9 or 10 wins and tell me how realistic that looks.

Obviously this season's games are not going to be won or lost based on mathematics - we may get on a roll like last year and win out - or we might revert to the team from the first half of last year and struggle. Personally, I won't be happy with less than 9 or 10 wins, but realistically that's (unfortunately) not that likely to happen. I'll get into my bomb shelter now and await your responses...

No, your analysis is quite fair. Just keep in mind that wins and losses are a zero-sum game; there are no fractional results. For comparison's sake, Massey right now projects Rice to win 7.31 games this season, although only in the Tulsa game do the Owls have less than a 50% of winning. As for myself, the Kansas, Houston, Tulsa, and Louisiana Tech games look 50-50 to me. By definition, Rice should split those four games and win the rest, resulting in a 9-3 record. Anything less would be a disappointment.

(09-03-2013 06:46 PM)texd Wrote:  
(09-03-2013 05:42 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  Agreed. "where you start from" has a lot to do with where you end up, which will work to our great advantage if we (and A&M) do what we need to do.

Even if A&M falters, at least assuming they do it in the SEC, Sagarin and others will keep them highly ranked. I can't do the math, but their current ranking is probably worth 20 or more spots to us. I expect us to slowly rise and the rest of CUSA to slowly fall as the season progresses.

Just repeating this so people can see it. At least in Chrome on my Mac, this board has problems rendering some posts, specifically posts where there are an uneven number of open and close quote tags.

Thanks for doing this. That post came up blank on my Windows Vista machine using Internet Explorer 7.
09-03-2013 09:25 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
wrysal Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,697
Joined: Jun 2005
Reputation: 24
I Root For: Rice
Location: Plano

New Orleans Bowl
Post: #23
RE: Sagarin after week one
(09-03-2013 09:01 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(09-03-2013 05:52 PM)wrysal Wrote:  Personally, I won't be happy with less than 9 or 10 wins, but realistically that's (unfortunately) not that likely to happen. I'll get into my bomb shelter now and await your responses...

Play them one at a time, not as a unit.

If you think 8 is optimistic, I'll take the over.

As each game is played, it becomes either a 100% or a 0%. Beating Kansas will not give us .6 of a W and .4 of a L.

I would be happy with 10 if 8 was realistic. Realistic + 2 is good. Don't know why you won't be. Maybe your intuition is telling you something about the math.

10-3 or 10-4 will be somewhat of a disappointment to me.

JMHO.

OO, I think you might have misread my quote - I would be happy with 10 wins.

And if you don't accept probability theory, then if Rice and Tulsa play and the game is universally considered a toss-up do they both just call it a W and cancel the game? No, one team gets the 100% and one gets the 0%, and if you played an infinite number of games like this you would end up with a .500 record. I just see the mean number of wins for us right now as 7.5. Everybody wants to win every contest, but it's a zero sum game.
09-03-2013 09:28 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Hambone10 Offline
Hooter
*

Posts: 40,279
Joined: Nov 2005
Reputation: 1284
I Root For: My Kids
Location: Right Down th Middle

New Orleans BowlDonatorsThe Parliament Awards
Post: #24
RE: Sagarin after week one
Wrysal, I understand your concerns... but as others have pointed out, only in onw remaining game should we not be favored, and even that is a toss-up... so every game, save that one, should be a victory.... and that one could as well.

I think we need to "sell out" a little bit. As 40 points out, we have some issues with short weeks and things... I think the administration should encourage the professors to lay back a bit that week and encourage "spirit" particularly that week across campus... but REALLY to do it all year. Host on campus watch parties, serve food, hire bands, do bonfires etc etc etc...We REALLY need to recognize the opportunity of being 12-1 and do everything we ALL can to help see that happen. It can be done without sacrificing our academic integrity... as these guys have already been admitted and passed their course to date... If we fail, we fail.. but let's give ourselves EVERY opportunity to succeed this "special" time.

As to the liberty bowl... I believe the payout is almost $2mm. While it may be the SEC number 8, it IS also possible that we get offered a better bowl... particularly if we are a highly ranked team. Whether we are or not, how great would it be to play in a bowl that pays us almost 7 figures as opposed to barely covering our costs... and pits us against a "name" opponent we have a solid chance of beating. I doubt it's A&M, but How about getting to play Ole Miss, Arkansas or the like?

This really is "our year" guys. Not merely because I think we have the bodies... but I think the schedule really plays into our hands better than perhaps any other. It's 2008 again, but with a better game against our one big gun... and no second tier stumbling block to lock us into a sub 40 ranking and a directional bowl opponent.
09-03-2013 10:21 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
owl40 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,875
Joined: Sep 2007
Reputation: 77
I Root For: Owls
Location:
Post: #25
RE: Sagarin after week one
Liberty Bowl is interesting as they changed/increased payout to $2.4M and secured a spot in a six-bowl rotation w/ other SEC schools (e.g. Gator, Outback, etc.) so the profile has been increased compared to the last remaining team in SEC w/ 6+ wins (could not even find one last year to play Tulsa). I would expect it to now draw the best of Ole Miss, Miss St., Tenn., Vandy, and Arkansas rotation given Memphis location.

http://www.kitsapsun.com/news/2013/aug/1...z2dtyd4scm

I believe the other bowl that would be considered is the Heart of Dallas Bowl which last year I think was Purdue/Okie St. It now has C-USA tie-in to Big 12/Big 10 team. Payout is $1.2M. Given location, could easily see Rice end-up here playing in new bowl, better higher profile match-up, etc. than against a MAC, Sunbelt, AAC, etc. team.

Either way, taking care of business will mean much better options than any prior bowl Rice has had in the past 50 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heart_of_Dallas_Bowl
09-04-2013 01:23 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
d1owls4life Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 13,030
Joined: Jan 2006
Reputation: 62
I Root For: the Rice Owls!
Location: Jersey Village, TX

New Orleans Bowl
Post: #26
RE: Sagarin after week one
(09-03-2013 09:00 PM)Wiessman Wrote:  The whole BCS/non-BCS dichotomy has thrown people's perceptions out of whack. The bottom line is that Kansas is not a good team, and we should beat them handily at HRS, seeing as we have supposedly improved a great deal.

We should be out to atone for the UH debacle last year, and as such should also win this game by a significant margin.

We've been "accepting" losing to Tulsa ever since a certain coach defected, and to be fair they have become a very consistent program. But we should have beaten them last year, and so this will be our best chance in ages to take them down when it counts. Rice must overcome Tulsa this time; a decisive win would be even more valuable.

12-1 or bust. That is how we should be thinking, while maintaining focus and progressing one opponent at a time.

Well since no one has seen Kansas play, I'm not sure I can say we should win handily. If we have a performance offensively like this past Saturday, we should be able to move the ball on them. The matter will be if the defense can make some stops. This game was already going to be big for the course of the season regardless of what happened this past Saturday. With how we played, the pressure has only increased. I'm glad we have an extra week to prepare.
09-04-2013 07:04 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
WRCisforgotten79 Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 10,601
Joined: May 2007
Reputation: 50
I Root For: Rice
Location: Houston
Post: #27
RE: Sagarin after week one
Let's see if I understand: Rice loses by three touchdowns to a team playing without its Heisman Trophy winner for the first half, and without a handful of defensive starters for the game, so I should be somewhat disappointed if Rice doesn't win 10 or 11 games?

I'm sorry, but there is just not enough data to cause me to leap to that conclusion. While the Owls showed that they have good potential offensively, it is difficult to gauge how good they are on that side of the ball, considering it was not against a team whose first unit was not even expected to be robust.

The defense gave up 52, and with Manziel starting, that number could have been much larger.

Without more information, I would, as of now, expect Rice to lose to Kansas, Houston, North Texas, and Tulsa, at a minimum. I hope that the 11-1 scenario comes to pass, but considering past performances, and Rice's usual lack of depth, I would think that everything would have to go perfectly for the Owls to run the table.
09-04-2013 09:02 AM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
07owl Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,980
Joined: Nov 2010
Reputation: 51
I Root For: Rice
Location:
Post: #28
RE: Sagarin after week one
(09-04-2013 09:02 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  Let's see if I understand: Rice loses by three touchdowns to a team playing without its Heisman Trophy winner for the first half, and without a handful of defensive starters for the game, so I should be somewhat disappointed if Rice doesn't win 10 or 11 games?

I'm sorry, but there is just not enough data to cause me to leap to that conclusion. While the Owls showed that they have good potential offensively, it is difficult to gauge how good they are on that side of the ball, considering it was not against a team whose first unit was not even expected to be robust.

The defense gave up 52, and with Manziel starting, that number could have been much larger.

Without more information, I would, as of now, expect Rice to lose to Kansas, Houston, North Texas, and Tulsa, at a minimum. I hope that the 11-1 scenario comes to pass, but considering past performances, and Rice's usual lack of depth, I would think that everything would have to go perfectly for the Owls to run the table.

What exactly did Manziel do that Joeckel didn't? Manziel had 4 scoring drives out of 5 possessions (24 points), 3 of them with a very short field. Joeckel had 4 scoring drives out of 6 possessions (28 points), none with a short field. Do you really think Manziel would have made that number "much larger?" I think the score you saw wouldn't have changed much if Manziel was at qb the entire game...which isn't great either way, but it's an SEC team, and we were also missing some of our most important defensive players. I think you can expect significantly better against the rest of our competition.

And on the other side of the ball, they were missing some defensive starters, but the defense we saw overall is still likely to be better than what we see most of the way. It shouldn't be that difficult to gauge what the offensive side of this team, given that it's largely the same group from last year, just with more experience...and the offense in game 1 looked pretty similar to the offense last year.
(This post was last modified: 09-04-2013 09:26 AM by 07owl.)
09-04-2013 09:26 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
owl40 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,875
Joined: Sep 2007
Reputation: 77
I Root For: Owls
Location:
Post: #29
RE: Sagarin after week one
Also important to note that we did not have Nwosu or Radcliffe for any of the 2H. We were playing third string guys who made young mistakes on tackling, angles, coverage busts, etc. that made it very easy for them. They will not do that against Alabama. Compare the Rice tackling chart from game to depth chart below. Guys on tackling chart high-up w/ tackles that are not even listed on the depth cart or listed as third string. We were equally thin. We have our 1st string D and they have their first string D plus JFF...the score gap probably same given our mistakes and none for them but they don't put up 52 and we don't put up 500 yards.

Bottom line is this team is much improved and my expectations are to win out. Because we have seen the movie before, unfortunately we will lay an egg along the way.. (my prediction is short week at NT or at UAB) but unlike prior years where we have to have things break our way to get 11 wins..this year is about Rice not beating Rice to get to that # of W's. Houston and Tulsa are worse than prior years. We are better. Kansas is about the same..maybe marginally improved but we are much improved and have them at home. Unlike the other C-USA west teams, we also have the easy C-USA east schedule which is an advantage. No ECU or Marshall.

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1297475.html
http://www.riceowls.com/sports/m-footbl/...ice01.html
09-04-2013 09:53 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
OptimisticOwl Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 58,540
Joined: Apr 2005
Reputation: 854
I Root For: Rice
Location: DFW Metroplex

The Parliament AwardsNew Orleans BowlFootball GeniusCrappiesDonatorsDonators
Post: #30
RE: Sagarin after week one
(09-04-2013 09:02 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  Let's see if I understand: Rice loses by three touchdowns to a team playing without its Heisman Trophy winner for the first half, and without a handful of defensive starters for the game, so I should be somewhat disappointed if Rice doesn't win 10 or 11 games?

I'm sorry, but there is just not enough data to cause me to leap to that conclusion. While the Owls showed that they have good potential offensively, it is difficult to gauge how good they are on that side of the ball, considering it was not against a team whose first unit was not even expected to be robust.

The defense gave up 52, and with Manziel starting, that number could have been much larger.

Without more information, I would, as of now, expect Rice to lose to Kansas, Houston, North Texas, and Tulsa, at a minimum. I hope that the 11-1 scenario comes to pass, but considering past performances, and Rice's usual lack of depth, I would think that everything would have to go perfectly for the Owls to run the table.

Not perfectly, but well. We need to avoid key injuries, especially at key times. Not much we can anticipate on that. We need to avoid glaring, major mistakes.

Of course, so do the other guys. No need to assume they will get all the breaks.

The Aggie game is not why you should expect to win 10 - the returning starters, the senior leadership, and the weak schedule is why. All the A$M game did was show that we have more or less the abilities we thought we had. It was not as good as hoped or as bad as feared. I would say it was a little better than expected by most people.

BTW. 10 is my minimum for the full season - 9 is my minimum for the regular season and would be a mild disappointment. Sometime we get to talking apples and oranges on here.

I think you underestimate our team. Of course the flip side to that is that you think I overestimate it. Let's play it out. Three of your four projected "at a minimum" losses are in the next four games. Heck, if we get a 9-3 regular season, you can be happy and I will be a little disappointed.
(This post was last modified: 09-04-2013 10:41 AM by OptimisticOwl.)
09-04-2013 10:41 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
OptimisticOwl Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 58,540
Joined: Apr 2005
Reputation: 854
I Root For: Rice
Location: DFW Metroplex

The Parliament AwardsNew Orleans BowlFootball GeniusCrappiesDonatorsDonators
Post: #31
RE: Sagarin after week one
(09-03-2013 09:28 PM)wrysal Wrote:  
(09-03-2013 09:01 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(09-03-2013 05:52 PM)wrysal Wrote:  Personally, I won't be happy with less than 9 or 10 wins, but realistically that's (unfortunately) not that likely to happen. I'll get into my bomb shelter now and await your responses...

Play them one at a time, not as a unit.

If you think 8 is optimistic, I'll take the over.

As each game is played, it becomes either a 100% or a 0%. Beating Kansas will not give us .6 of a W and .4 of a L.

I would be happy with 10 if 8 was realistic. Realistic + 2 is good. Don't know why you won't be. Maybe your intuition is telling you something about the math.

10-3 or 10-4 will be somewhat of a disappointment to me.

JMHO.

OO, I think you might have misread my quote - I would be happy with 10 wins.

And if you don't accept probability theory, then if Rice and Tulsa play and the game is universally considered a toss-up do they both just call it a W and cancel the game? No, one team gets the 100% and one gets the 0%, and if you played an infinite number of games like this you would end up with a .500 record. I just see the mean number of wins for us right now as 7.5. Everybody wants to win every contest, but it's a zero sum game.

I think you might have missed my statements a bit, too.

I will admit that math is not my strong suit. On math, I would be one of the guys in the stands chanting "Give him another chance" when the Aggie said 2+2=4.

But taking the games one at a time, we should be favored in most, if not all, and even if not favored the lines will be close. I cannot think of a single game that I would expect to lose going into it, as I did the Aggie game. I cannot think of a single game that I would not be disappointed and let down to lose.

To have that happen 4 or 5 times this year would just boggle the mind. Once or twice, that is within the realm of reasonable imagination. But I don't give away games, I demand that the other team must play and defeat us first. So one at a time, I will go into the game with high expectations.

Side question: Assuming 10 games, would you rather us be 75% favorites 10 times or 90% favorites 5 times and 60% favorites 5 times, or 90% favorites 8 times and 15% underdogs twice, or does it really make no difference?
09-04-2013 11:06 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Wiessman Away
All American
*

Posts: 3,307
Joined: Mar 2008
Reputation: 47
I Root For: Rice
Location:
Post: #32
RE: Sagarin after week one
(09-04-2013 10:41 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  The Aggie game is not why you should expect to win 10 - the returning starters, the senior leadership, and the weak schedule is why. All the A$M game did was show that we have more or less the abilities we thought we had. It was not as good as hoped or as bad as feared. I would say it was a little better than expected by most people.

Perfectly stated.
09-04-2013 11:31 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
OldOwl Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,315
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation: -12
I Root For: Rice Owls
Location:
Post: #33
RE: Sagarin after week one
Where is ECU at?

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

56 Tulsa
65 Rice
70 Kansas
77 Houston
78 LaTech
108 UTEP
120 North Texas
122 UAB
133 FAU
148 Tulane
150 NMSU
171 UTSA

Projected finish 10-2
[/quote]
09-04-2013 11:32 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
loki_the_bubba Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,697
Joined: Jul 2010
Reputation: 701
I Root For: Rice Owls
Location:
Post: #34
RE: Sagarin after week one
(09-04-2013 11:32 AM)OldOwl Wrote:  Where is ECU at?

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

56 Tulsa
65 Rice
70 Kansas
77 Houston
78 LaTech
108 UTEP
120 North Texas
122 UAB
133 FAU
148 Tulane
150 NMSU
171 UTSA

Projected finish 10-2


89
09-04-2013 12:09 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
At Ease Offline
Banned

Posts: 17,134
Joined: Jun 2005
I Root For: The Rice Owls
Location:
Post: #35
RE: Sagarin after week one
(09-04-2013 09:02 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  Let's see if I understand: Rice loses by three touchdowns to a team playing without its Heisman Trophy winner for the first half, and without a handful of defensive starters for the game, so I should be somewhat disappointed if Rice doesn't win 10 or 11 games?

I'm sorry, but there is just not enough data to cause me to leap to that conclusion. While the Owls showed that they have good potential offensively, it is difficult to gauge how good they are on that side of the ball, considering it was not against a team whose first unit was not even expected to be robust.

The defense gave up 52, and with Manziel starting, that number could have been much larger.

Without more information, I would, as of now, expect Rice to lose to Kansas, Houston, North Texas, and Tulsa, at a minimum. I hope that the 11-1 scenario comes to pass, but considering past performances, and Rice's usual lack of depth, I would think that everything would have to go perfectly for the Owls to run the table.

It does remind of the 2010 Texas game on this board, where there were also proclamations of dramatic improvement and pride and hope for the rest of the season. It turned out Texas just stunk. A&M without those players may similarly be below expectations.

I liked what I saw from our interior OL, our RB's, Taylor, Covington... but I liked those guys a lot last year, too.. when we went .500 in a very down CUSA. Saturday was more positive than not, but there are still some major ?'s about the consistency of the offense and everywhere on defense not #'ed 15, 29, or 56.
09-04-2013 02:26 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Wiessman Away
All American
*

Posts: 3,307
Joined: Mar 2008
Reputation: 47
I Root For: Rice
Location:
Post: #36
RE: Sagarin after week one
I walked away from the 2010 UT game feeling pretty bad about our squad.

There are similarities with the start to this season, yes, but we were very poor against UT from the get-go. 2013 A&M is unquestionably a better team than 2010 UT was, and yet we still had our moments on Saturday. That game at Reliant was a surrender by us; in contrast, the A&M affair was sufficiently competitive until about midway through the third quarter.

I'm fairly sure that this is the best team we've had under Bailiff. In my opinion, that is not saying much (yes, even considering 2008), but even so, we will find out whether or not that is really the case in the coming weeks. Our schedule is weak and we do have significant experience and talent to rely on, so piling up a bunch of wins is not out of the question. And as a matter of fact, I see it as mandatory at this point.
(This post was last modified: 09-04-2013 05:03 PM by Wiessman.)
09-04-2013 04:36 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
wrysal Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,697
Joined: Jun 2005
Reputation: 24
I Root For: Rice
Location: Plano

New Orleans Bowl
Post: #37
RE: Sagarin after week one
(09-04-2013 11:06 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Side question: Assuming 10 games, would you rather us be 75% favorites 10 times or 90% favorites 5 times and 60% favorites 5 times, or 90% favorites 8 times and 15% underdogs twice, or does it really make no difference?

If the percentages were guaranteed correct (which they can't be because they are just conjecture at this point) it wouldn't matter which numbers went with which teams - our expected number of wins at the end of the year would be the same (as long as they all added up to 7.5). But since you asked, I would rather have all the games with Rice as the moderate favorite than having a bunch of guaranteed wins and a few guaranteed losses - more exciting that way.
(This post was last modified: 09-04-2013 09:54 PM by wrysal.)
09-04-2013 05:48 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Rick Gerlach Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,529
Joined: Jun 2005
Reputation: 70
I Root For:
Location:

The Parliament AwardsCrappiesNew Orleans Bowl
Post: #38
RE: Sagarin after week one
(09-04-2013 11:06 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  But taking the games one at a time, we should be favored in most, if not all, and even if not favored the lines will be close. I cannot think of a single game that I would expect to lose going into it, as I did the Aggie game. I cannot think of a single game that I would not be disappointed and let down to lose.

I like our team and our chances the rest of the year.

That said, and for perspective, imagine you were any of Rice's opponents for last year's second half, looking solely at our record at the end of the first half of the year. (heck, I'd say imagine you were a regular on this board for that matter . . . . )

The point is, everyone on our schedule the second half of last year, and probably Air Force as well, was would've been counting their game against us as a W, with as much confidence in evidence as in your assessment of our chances this year.

I believe we could win out, certainly, and have high hopes for another 10 win season.

But we're one game in. We don't know:

1. How good A&M really is (seriously) yet.
2. Which opponents on are schedule have been seriously undervalued by the pundits, polls and rating services because of player improvement or additions to their roster that aren't given the significance they should be, because the players added only joined a 'bad' team. (e.g., what impact can some guy named Casey have at a school like Rice)
3. Which of our late season opponents goes on a tear like we did last year.
4. How many injuries we'll have to deal with and at what positions.

I think wrysal and Jonathon have made some good points. That said, I believe we are all being reasonable in saying we are very capable of winning 10 this year, and that it is conceivable that we could run the table from here out.

But capability and conceivability aside, I think the expectation that we 'ought' to win out is unreasonable, or that winning out is the only 'acceptable' outcome fails to consider that circumstances are not static, and that the other team has a fairly significant say in every game we play.

I'm still disappointed every time we lose. But I'm not necessarily going to write off any loss from here out as a total failure for the team.

One other comment. I understand we need to play as close to 'error free' football as possible, or not make 'big mistakes', etc. But I don't know that an error free game, while a necessary GOAL, is likely to be a reasonable outcome. A&M made mistakes against us last week. Pretty much every team that won last week, made some errors or big mistakes along the way. I may just read to much into some of the posts and the expectations that seem to go with them.

Oh, and this is just a general thought. For OO's benefit, almost none of this post was provoked by anything he posted, or should be taken as a disagreement with anything he posted. It just happened to be the place I ended up posting today.
09-04-2013 07:41 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
MemOwl Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,031
Joined: Aug 2006
Reputation: 28
I Root For: Owls
Location: Houston
Post: #39
RE: Sagarin after week one
It seems to me that expectations are rising, and that is a good thing.

Ex post, last year we should have gone 9-3 regular season. We lost to horrible Memphis and Marshall and didn't steal any games we shouldn't have won.


I'm not sure how many people predicted 9-3 either before or after the UCLA game last year.


Did anyone predict 10-2 (UH)? Sitting in September, looking at Massey or Sagarin after UH being blown out by Texas State, no one was envisioning an injury to McHargue.
(This post was last modified: 09-04-2013 08:51 PM by MemOwl.)
09-04-2013 08:50 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
OptimisticOwl Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 58,540
Joined: Apr 2005
Reputation: 854
I Root For: Rice
Location: DFW Metroplex

The Parliament AwardsNew Orleans BowlFootball GeniusCrappiesDonatorsDonators
Post: #40
RE: Sagarin after week one
(09-04-2013 05:48 PM)wrysal Wrote:  
(09-04-2013 11:06 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Side question: Assuming 10 games, would you rather us be 75% favorites 10 times or 90% favorites 5 times and 60% favorites 5 times, or 90% favorites 8 times and 15% underdogs twice, or does it really make no difference?

If the percentages were guaranteed correct (which they can't be because they are just conjecture at this point) it wouldn't matter which numbers went with which teams - our expected number of wins at the end of the year would be the same (as long as they all added up to 7.5. But since you asked, I would rather have all the games with Rice as the moderate favorite than having a bunch of guaranteed wins and a few guaranteed looses - more exciting that way.

If you mean the one where all the games are 75%, I am with you on that. But I don't think a 3-1 favorite is moderate. The 60% is moderate. I just think if we are a 3-1 favorite in every game, I doubt we lose 25% of them. Math is one thing, but this is football, not cards or dice. JMHO
09-04-2013 09:08 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2024 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2024 MyBB Group.