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Doubt he will be a front line ML 1B, but has value
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NolaOwl Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Doubt he will be a front line ML 1B, but has value
(08-03-2013 07:51 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Luhnow is an advocate of the statistical approach, but he is also a strong supporter of scouting. He has beefed up both scouting and statistical analysis, as well as coaching at the minor league level, particularly the lower minors.

As with college recruiting and pro football drafts, we'll have to wait until the talent plays out. I'm more with the Walt Jocketty and John Mozeliak approach than Mr. Luhnow. So far, Luhnow has not been very accurate in prediciting the major league team's success. So, all Astro fans can have is hope.
08-03-2013 01:43 PM
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d1owls4life Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Doubt he will be a front line ML 1B, but has value
(08-03-2013 01:43 PM)NolaOwl Wrote:  
(08-03-2013 07:51 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Luhnow is an advocate of the statistical approach, but he is also a strong supporter of scouting. He has beefed up both scouting and statistical analysis, as well as coaching at the minor league level, particularly the lower minors.

As with college recruiting and pro football drafts, we'll have to wait until the talent plays out. I'm more with the Walt Jocketty and John Mozeliak approach than Mr. Luhnow. So far, Luhnow has not been very accurate in prediciting the major league team's success. So, all Astro fans can have is hope.

In "predicting the major league team's success", are you just talking about his time with the Astros? Because if so, I'm not sure what you expected. The farm system was barren and free agency works to complete a contender, not build one from scratch. Yeah, all we have is hope. But there is plenty there to be hopeful about.
08-03-2013 01:50 PM
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NolaOwl Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Doubt he will be a front line ML 1B, but has value
(08-02-2013 03:13 PM)d1owls4life Wrote:  
(08-02-2013 02:53 PM)NolaOwl Wrote:  
(08-02-2013 02:11 PM)georgewebb Wrote:  
(08-02-2013 10:00 AM)NolaOwl Wrote:  
(08-01-2013 04:53 PM)georgewebb Wrote:  Meaning what? Did you read the book?

Yes I read the book. So far, no team constructed on moneyball principles has won the World Series although both the Rays and Athletics have gotten to the playoffs.

Your conclusion seems misplaced in two respects:
- First, the fact that A's failed to win the World Series with one of the lowest payrolls in the majors is NOT evidence that their approach failed; rather, the fact that they made the playoffs consistently with one of the lowest payrolls in the majors is evidence that it succeeded. The whole idea is not that sabermetrics guarantees a championship. The idea was that, ABSENT A LARGE PAYROLL, sabermetrics gives you a better chance of winning than impression-based scouting does. But no one has ever claimed that payroll doesn't matter. Obviously, sabermetrics PLUS big payroll would be even better, but the A's did not have that luxury.

- Second, it is not true that teams constructed on sabermetrics have not been winning World Series, because nearly EVERY team now uses those principles. The Red Sox are a leading example, but the approach is so ingrained these days that it would be hard to single out any team as not using sabermetric principles to a great extent.

I did not state a conclusion, but a fact - no team has won a Series who relies strictly on sabermetrics. That's not the same as saying teams have had some success with the system.

Today, most every team uses sabermetrics to some degree, but many also rely on more traditional scouting and evaluation, such as the Giants and the Cardinals for example. It is just one tool. Good scouting, coaching and managing, not necessarily the highest payroll, are also ingredients of a successfully major league teams. Statistics do not drive all personnel decisions.

Look, if a small market team can even the odds by using the moneyball approach, more power to them. But ultimately, teams win with a blend of youth and experience that comes with a more balanced approach. The history of baseball is littered with "can't miss" prospects who were a dollar's worth of promise but a dime on delivery. Having a great minor league system is no guarantee of major league success. Signing a player or trading for a player with a track record is no guarantee either (ask the Angels), but it is a proven way to win.

I know that Astro fans (or as some say 'ALstro" fans) want to cling to some hope in the fact of a 3rd 100 loss season in a row. That's not a bad thing, but the jury is still definitely out. And, I'm not impressed with an ownership team that has gutted the major league roster and sold it to the fans as rebuilding when the team resides in the nation's fourth largest city.

What does residing in the fourth largest city have to do with it? Why spend money at the major league level when you know you have zero chance to contend? I have no issue with what Crane is doing with his roster. Now, if down the line he allows top players to leave because he is too cheap to pay, then I'll have an issue. But, spending money just so we don't lose 100 games isn't a good reason to do so.

No method is a guaranteed way to success. But, having a stocked farm system allows you to maintain success. The Cardinals have shown that. The jury is still definitely out. But, I'm ok with how things have progressed so far.

Being in the 4th largest market means you are not a "small market" team. My suspicion has been, with which many national observers agree, is that the scorched earth approach to the MLB roster and payroll is not just motivated by a desire to rebuild with moneyball, but to reap enough profits to pay down the debt incurred in the purchase. Other teams have retooled and rebuilt without successive 100 loss seasons.

BTW, the Cardinals were winning before they had a "stacked farm system." Unlike the Astros, though, they have maintained their competitiveness while shifting to a more farm based system. Perrhaps that is why they have maintained 3 million a year in attendance and around 100 million in payroll?
08-03-2013 01:51 PM
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NolaOwl Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Doubt he will be a front line ML 1B, but has value
(08-03-2013 01:50 PM)d1owls4life Wrote:  
(08-03-2013 01:43 PM)NolaOwl Wrote:  
(08-03-2013 07:51 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Luhnow is an advocate of the statistical approach, but he is also a strong supporter of scouting. He has beefed up both scouting and statistical analysis, as well as coaching at the minor league level, particularly the lower minors.

As with college recruiting and pro football drafts, we'll have to wait until the talent plays out. I'm more with the Walt Jocketty and John Mozeliak approach than Mr. Luhnow. So far, Luhnow has not been very accurate in prediciting the major league team's success. So, all Astro fans can have is hope.

In "predicting the major league team's success", are you just talking about his time with the Astros? Because if so, I'm not sure what you expected. The farm system was barren and free agency works to complete a contender, not build one from scratch. Yeah, all we have is hope. But there is plenty there to be hopeful about.

Pretty much as with the Astros - he said they wouldn't lose 100 games before last year and would be better this year. Both predictions appear to be off the mark.
08-03-2013 01:55 PM
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d1owls4life Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Doubt he will be a front line ML 1B, but has value
(08-03-2013 01:55 PM)NolaOwl Wrote:  
(08-03-2013 01:50 PM)d1owls4life Wrote:  
(08-03-2013 01:43 PM)NolaOwl Wrote:  
(08-03-2013 07:51 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Luhnow is an advocate of the statistical approach, but he is also a strong supporter of scouting. He has beefed up both scouting and statistical analysis, as well as coaching at the minor league level, particularly the lower minors.

As with college recruiting and pro football drafts, we'll have to wait until the talent plays out. I'm more with the Walt Jocketty and John Mozeliak approach than Mr. Luhnow. So far, Luhnow has not been very accurate in prediciting the major league team's success. So, all Astro fans can have is hope.

In "predicting the major league team's success", are you just talking about his time with the Astros? Because if so, I'm not sure what you expected. The farm system was barren and free agency works to complete a contender, not build one from scratch. Yeah, all we have is hope. But there is plenty there to be hopeful about.

Pretty much as with the Astros - he said they wouldn't lose 100 games before last year and would be better this year. Both predictions appear to be off the mark.

Ah, ok. I guess I don't take remarks like that before the season as seriously as you do. Especially for a team that everyone knew was going to be bad.
08-03-2013 02:07 PM
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georgewebb Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Doubt he will be a front line ML 1B, but has value
(08-03-2013 02:07 PM)d1owls4life Wrote:  
(08-03-2013 01:55 PM)NolaOwl Wrote:  we'll Pretty much as with the Astros - he said they wouldn't lose 100 games before last year and would be better this year. Both predictions appear to be off the mark.

Ah, ok. I guess I don't take remarks like that before the season as seriously as you do. Especially for a team that everyone knew was going to be bad.

Indeed. What was he supposed to say? "We're gonna lose 100 this year, and next year we'll be even worse."
08-03-2013 04:02 PM
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WRCisforgotten79 Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Doubt he will be a front line ML 1B, but has value
Lance won't play again. He'll retire very soon.
08-05-2013 04:37 PM
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NolaOwl Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Doubt he will be a front line ML 1B, but has value
(08-03-2013 04:02 PM)georgewebb Wrote:  
(08-03-2013 02:07 PM)d1owls4life Wrote:  
(08-03-2013 01:55 PM)NolaOwl Wrote:  we'll Pretty much as with the Astros - he said they wouldn't lose 100 games before last year and would be better this year. Both predictions appear to be off the mark.

Ah, ok. I guess I don't take remarks like that before the season as seriously as you do. Especially for a team that everyone knew was going to be bad.

Indeed. What was he supposed to say? "We're gonna lose 100 this year, and next year we'll be even worse."

If you don't believe your team will win at least 63 games, don't make any prediction.

You guys are entitled to your optimism. But MLB fans don't cheer for great minor league systems or for unproven prospects. Count me as skeptical until we see improvement in the show. So far, a minimum payroll of $13 million is producing minimum results.

Are there other ways to succeed? Yes. Look at what the Dodgers have done. And the Cardinals' improvements started with trades and free agent acquisitions together with the farm system. Maybe the Astros would not have been champs if they had held on to their best players, but they would certainly have been more competitive than they are now and still have been building up the farm system. Instead, Crane and Luhnow decimated the MLB team while still charging MLB prices and entering into a terrible tv deal such that they could reap maximum profits to pay down their debt.
08-06-2013 09:54 AM
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d1owls4life Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Doubt he will be a front line ML 1B, but has value
(08-06-2013 09:54 AM)NolaOwl Wrote:  
(08-03-2013 04:02 PM)georgewebb Wrote:  
(08-03-2013 02:07 PM)d1owls4life Wrote:  
(08-03-2013 01:55 PM)NolaOwl Wrote:  we'll Pretty much as with the Astros - he said they wouldn't lose 100 games before last year and would be better this year. Both predictions appear to be off the mark.

Ah, ok. I guess I don't take remarks like that before the season as seriously as you do. Especially for a team that everyone knew was going to be bad.

Indeed. What was he supposed to say? "We're gonna lose 100 this year, and next year we'll be even worse."

If you don't believe your team will win at least 63 games, don't make any prediction.

You guys are entitled to your optimism. But MLB fans don't cheer for great minor league systems or for unproven prospects. Count me as skeptical until we see improvement in the show. So far, a minimum payroll of $13 million is producing minimum results.

Are there other ways to succeed? Yes. Look at what the Dodgers have done. And the Cardinals' improvements started with trades and free agent acquisitions together with the farm system. Maybe the Astros would not have been champs if they had held on to their best players, but they would certainly have been more competitive than they are now and still have been building up the farm system. Instead, Crane and Luhnow decimated the MLB team while still charging MLB prices and entering into a terrible tv deal such that they could reap maximum profits to pay down their debt.

Terrible TV deal? Terrible that the channel isn't shown, yes. Great in terms of money for the team.

What would be the point of being marginally more competitive? So we win 70-75 games? Whoop-dee-do. That just puts you lower in the draft order. Don't think you'd be selling enough tickets to justify the additional cost necessary to get to that level.

And yes, the Dodgers and Cardinals were built differently. They had some free agents come in. And they made the trades. But, the reason they could make those trades is because they had the farm system depth to pull them off (or in the Dodgers case, money to burn). Free agents are not the first step; they are the last. When the Astros get their young studs to the MLB level, that will be the time to build around them with expensive free agents.

Look, you don't agree with the methods. That's fine. Let's just wait and see what happens the next couple years.
(This post was last modified: 08-06-2013 11:10 AM by d1owls4life.)
08-06-2013 11:09 AM
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75src Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Doubt he will be a front line ML 1B, but has value
Free agents are just the icing on the cake. The cake is building from the farm system.You go out to get one or two key free agents if that is what is needed to get good team up to the pennant level.

The Cardinals and Dodgers had traditionally built from the farm system up which is a legacy of a system Branch Rickey started with them. The Cardinals started building their farm system (including the Houston Buffs) in the 1920s.

The Astros had to be taken down to the bottom and rebuilt because Drayton had let the team get too old by about 2007 and he did not have the prospects on the farm to replace them. I think the Astros are about 3 years away from being a good team again. They have restocked the lower levels of their farm system and those players should be ready about then. It does not sense to pay a lot now to get a free agent now that would be out of baseball or declining in skills by the years from about 2017 onward. We should be receiving the top pick again this year.

(08-06-2013 11:09 AM)d1owls4life Wrote:  
(08-06-2013 09:54 AM)NolaOwl Wrote:  
(08-03-2013 04:02 PM)georgewebb Wrote:  
(08-03-2013 02:07 PM)d1owls4life Wrote:  
(08-03-2013 01:55 PM)NolaOwl Wrote:  we'll Pretty much as with the Astros - he said they wouldn't lose 100 games before last year and would be better this year. Both predictions appear to be off the mark.

Ah, ok. I guess I don't take remarks like that before the season as seriously as you do. Especially for a team that everyone knew was going to be bad.

Indeed. What was he supposed to say? "We're gonna lose 100 this year, and next year we'll be even worse."

If you don't believe your team will win at least 63 games, don't make any prediction.

You guys are entitled to your optimism. But MLB fans don't cheer for great minor league systems or for unproven prospects. Count me as skeptical until we see improvement in the show. So far, a minimum payroll of $13 million is producing minimum results.

Are there other ways to succeed? Yes. Look at what the Dodgers have done. And the Cardinals' improvements started with trades and free agent acquisitions together with the farm system. Maybe the Astros would not have been champs if they had held on to their best players, but they would certainly have been more competitive than they are now and still have been building up the farm system. Instead, Crane and Luhnow decimated the MLB team while still charging MLB prices and entering into a terrible tv deal such that they could reap maximum profits to pay down their debt.

Terrible TV deal? Terrible that the channel isn't shown, yes. Great in terms of money for the team.

What would be the point of being marginally more competitive? So we win 70-75 games? Whoop-dee-do. That just puts you lower in the draft order. Don't think you'd be selling enough tickets to justify the additional cost necessary to get to that level.

And yes, the Dodgers and Cardinals were built differently. They had some free agents come in. And they made the trades. But, the reason they could make those trades is because they had the farm system depth to pull them off (or in the Dodgers case, money to burn). Free agents are not the first step; they are the last. When the Astros get their young studs to the MLB level, that will be the time to build around them with expensive free agents.

Look, you don't agree with the methods. That's fine. Let's just wait and see what happens the next couple years.
08-06-2013 03:58 PM
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d1owls4life Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Doubt he will be a front line ML 1B, but has value
(08-06-2013 03:58 PM)75src Wrote:  Free agents are just the icing on the cake. The cake is building from the farm system.You go out to get one or two key free agents if that is what is needed to get good team up to the pennant level.

The Cardinals and Dodgers had traditionally built from the farm system up which is a legacy of a system Branch Rickey started with them. The Cardinals started building their farm system (including the Houston Buffs) in the 1920s.

The Astros had to be taken down to the bottom and rebuilt because Drayton had let the team get too old by about 2007 and he did not have the prospects on the farm to replace them. I think the Astros are about 3 years away from being a good team again. They have restocked the lower levels of their farm system and those players should be ready about then. It does not sense to pay a lot now to get a free agent now that would be out of baseball or declining in skills by the years from about 2017 onward. We should be receiving the top pick again this year.

Sure looks like it. How does Carlos Rodon and Mark Appel sound at the top of the rotation?
08-06-2013 04:05 PM
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