Interesting American article.

American Q&A

I'm not sure why the pundits are anointing Louisville. The Cardinals didn't exactly dominate the Big East last year, finishing 5-2 in a 4-way tie for first, and they won three of their Big East games by 3, 3, and 2 points respectively. Even after beating Florida, Louisville was ranked around #24 in computer ratings.

Remember, big bowl wins don't always translate into big success the next year. E.g., WVU put up 70 points on Clemson in the 2012 Orange Bowl and were fan and pollster darlings heading in to last season. We remember how that turned out.

Yeah, the competition will be weaker this year in the AAC but still, this isn't the 2001 Hurricanes we're talking about here. Louisville might win it but it won't come easy.

(07-20-2013 07:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I'm not sure why the pundits are anointing Louisville. The Cardinals didn't exactly dominate the Big East last year, finishing 5-2 in a 4-way tie for first, and they won three of their Big East games by 3, 3, and 2 points respectively. Even after beating Florida, Louisville was ranked around #24 in computer ratings.

Remember, big bowl wins don't always translate into big success the next year. E.g., WVU put up 70 points on Clemson in the 2012 Orange Bowl and were fan and pollster darlings heading in to last season. We remember how that turned out.

Yeah, the competition will be weaker this year in the AAC but still, this isn't the 2001 Hurricanes we're talking about here. Louisville might win it but it won't come easy.

Quo...citing WVA is not a great apples to apples because true, they did bomb Clemson in the Orange but then the next season (last year) they started B12 play. Did anybody really think they were going to steam roll the B12? Despite their pre season ranking, I didn't believe they would go into the B12 and take over last year....I doubt you did too. In fact probably only the typical delusional WVA fan thought they would go in and own the B12 right out of the gate.

Everyone handing Louisville the championship forgets the had a very difficult time in conf last year, did not win conf outright, and had many close wins. They'll lose in conf this year...guaranteed. They are sure getting a lot of mileage out of a bowl win.

This year in the AAC, just like every year in the BE will be a war. Once again people look down on us and I'm willing to bet that, just like with the Big East, when the smoke clears once again people will say, "wow, guess they were better than we thought"...

(07-20-2013 09:17 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  

(07-20-2013 07:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I'm not sure why the pundits are anointing Louisville. The Cardinals didn't exactly dominate the Big East last year, finishing 5-2 in a 4-way tie for first, and they won three of their Big East games by 3, 3, and 2 points respectively. Even after beating Florida, Louisville was ranked around #24 in computer ratings.

Remember, big bowl wins don't always translate into big success the next year. E.g., WVU put up 70 points on Clemson in the 2012 Orange Bowl and were fan and pollster darlings heading in to last season. We remember how that turned out.

Yeah, the competition will be weaker this year in the AAC but still, this isn't the 2001 Hurricanes we're talking about here. Louisville might win it but it won't come easy.

Quo...citing WVA is not a great apples to apples because true, they did bomb Clemson in the Orange but then the next season (last year) they started B12 play. Did anybody really think they were going to steam roll the B12? Despite their pre season ranking, I didn't believe they would go into the B12 and take over last year....I doubt you did too. In fact probably only the typical delusional WVA fan thought they would go in and own the B12 right out of the gate.

It's an interesting comparison though. Like last year's UofL team, WVU 2011 finished 5-2 in conference (sharing the championship with UC and UofL). The 2011 WVU squad also won three of their games by razor thin margins (they beat UC by three after blocking a last second field goal--- Louisville kicked a field goal in OT to beat the Bearcats). Last year UofL got blown out by Syacuse and lost to UConn. 2011 WVU got blown out by Syracuse and lost to a Louisville squad that finished 7-6

Now that I think through all this... it is eerily similar.

That being said, I am not saying that Louisville will suffer the same fate as 2012 WVU. My guess is they will finish with no more than 1-2 losses--- heck maybe the prognositicators are right and they go undefeated... but, my educated guess will be that they will not WALK roughshot over this league.

Final point: If UC beats Louisville at Nippert on 12/5 it will not be an upset. UC has only lost seven games at home in the past seven years. UC has won four out of five against the Cards. As the author of the link points out, UC returns a decent amount of talent including a sixth year QB and their entire two deep offensive line.

Louisville needed a last second miracle to beat USF at home last year. Now they get to come to Tampa for the last time. I wonder if they're in for a surprise.

USF has also won 4 out of 5 against Louisville in Tampa.

Louisville should be the favorite but now everyone will be gunning for them, much more difficult to win out when you are the target week in and week out.

UofL will be a target...they were not a target last year and have not been a target for a long time...it will be different. I think they could go undefeated in the AAC...but most likely they will have either 1 loss or 2. They will be good but not "other worldly"...

(07-20-2013 09:20 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Everyone handing Louisville the championship forgets the had a very difficult time in conf last year, did not win conf outright, and had many close wins. They'll lose in conf this year...guaranteed. They are sure getting a lot of mileage out of a bowl win.

Yep, that's my feeling too. No disrespect to Louisville, who certainly accomplished a lot more last year than USF ever has, but there is too much Cardinals boot-licking going on in the media right now.

Lets hand the trophy to USF. I mean after hearing these Bulls fan talk we might as well better not show up in Tampa.

Louisville is the clear favorite . We have THE best player in the league. We have the best skill players. The best dB's. A good def line and lbs. Louisville has a weakness or two so everyone harps on that and predicts failure.

Make a good case for any other team to be favored. It's hard to do. Everyone else has more weaknesses, a more difficult conference schedule, a new coach, etc.

Everyone picks Louisville because you'd be an idiot not to. It doesn't mean they'll win it. But they have earned the favorite's role by winning when it counts.

(07-20-2013 12:29 PM)BatonRougeEscapee Wrote:  Louisville is the clear favorite . We have THE best player in the league. We have the best skill players. The best dB's. A good def line and lbs. Louisville has a weakness or two so everyone harps on that and predicts failure.

Make a good case for any other team to be favored. It's hard to do. Everyone else has more weaknesses, a more difficult conference schedule, a new coach, etc.

Everyone picks Louisville because you'd be an idiot not to. It doesn't mean they'll win it. But they have earned the favorite's role by winning when it counts.

There is a difference between being the favorite and being the runaway no doubt 12-0 lock. I think Louisville loses at least two games this season but that still might be good enough to win the league. I see losses on the road at UC, UConn, and USF as a very real possibility. Plus they have a few other games that will test them including non-conference games against Kentucky and Ohio. If the finish 7-5 that would be a shock but anything between 8-4 and 12-0 is realistic given the talent and the schedule.

On the discussion of Louisville and the pre-season expectations, I recall Arkansas being ranked 8th pre-season last year when Rutgers beat them. Houston actually had high expectations either last year or the year before, I don't remember, but those expectations were never met (injuries I think did them in). If Louisville loses their QB their probably done. The game is till played on the field not in people's minds.

My money is on Cincy (figuratively).

(07-20-2013 12:29 PM)BatonRougeEscapee Wrote:  Louisville is the clear favorite . We have THE best player in the league. We have the best skill players. The best dB's. A good def line and lbs. Louisville has a weakness or two so everyone harps on that and predicts failure.

Make a good case for any other team to be favored. It's hard to do. Everyone else has more weaknesses, a more difficult conference schedule, a new coach, etc.

Everyone picks Louisville because you'd be an idiot not to. It doesn't mean they'll win it. But they have earned the favorite's role by winning when it counts.

blah blah blah...see you in The Nip

I think my reservations with Louisville go back to their close games in a weak OOC schedule save UNC, and their ho-hum finish to the regular season.

They started with a bang against Kentucky (32-14), who we would later learn was just a 2-10 team. They weren't overly impressive against a 3-8 FCS team, Missouri State. Then they caught UNC sleeping, built up a 35-7 lead at the half, surrendered most of the lead and held on for a 39-34 win. They won by seven over 3-8 FIU. They won by 4 over 0-12 USM. They beat last-place USF by 2. They lost to next-to-last place UConn. Anyway...

The point is not to knock UL's performance last year; win close or win big, a win is a win, and they won most of their games including a BCS bowl. They deserve their accolades. My point, rather, is to explain why I am not so high on them this year. That said, they've got a solid QB, so I would not be surprised if they won the AAC title. I just don't see then as overwhelming favorites.

I don't think anyone would be surprised if Louisville went 11-1 or 12-0 against their schedule. What would be surprising would be is if Louisville was beating everybody on their schedule by 20-30-40 points.

I don't think anyone would be surprised either if Louisville stumbled a few times and ended up 9-3.

(07-21-2013 09:37 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  I don't think anyone would be surprised if Louisville went 11-1 or 12-0 against their schedule. What would be surprising would be is if Louisville was beating everybody on their schedule by 20-30-40 points.

I don't think anyone would be surprised either if Louisville stumbled a few times and ended up 9-3.

I agree... Louisville isn't going to beat most opponents by 20 - 40 points, they don't have explosive type offense to do it... Soft schedule... I think however, their defense is key for them regardless... I'm thinking 9-3 too.