RE: How long until we have major conference realignment?
Bullet, the B1G, SEC, and PAC are safe as long as colleges still compete as conferences. Your idea for a 10-12 team super-conference would destroy the existing SEC, B1G, and Big 12. There are no PAC or ACC teams in the top 12 of revenue (Notre Dame comes in at #14 with $97 mil, Louisville is #17 at $88 mil, and FSU is down at #25 with $81 mil. Stanford is #16 at $89 mil, USC is #20 at $84 mil, and Washington is #23 at $82.5 mil).
Your theoretical super-conference has 5 obvious choices based on superior athletic departments, revenue, and very good academics in the public education realm: Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, and Florida. All of those schools are $120 mil revenue, top 75 schools, a history of athletic success, and national brands. LSU is the #6 revenue school with $113 mil, but they are academically #134. Hold off on them for a minute. Rounding out the top 11 is, in order of revenue, Penn State, Oklahoma, Auburn, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. All are top 100 schools that make over #100 mil. From there, #12 Arkansas makes $99.7 mil, #13 Iowa makes $97 mil as does #14 Notre Dame, and then you get a drop to #15 Georgia at $91 mil.
I list all of those schools out because I bet most people's idea of a super-conference of twelve teams would include all of those top 5 schools, but the rest comes down to what people value. Whether it is academics, athletic success, revenue, markets, or national brand will determine the remaining spots. Not even in the top 15 revenue schools are Stanford, USC, Nebraska, FSU, TAMU, UNC, Duke, or a number of other great schools. The most significant gap in revenue, not suprisingly, occurs between the #64 school, BYU, and the #72 school, Cincinnati. That gap is $53 mil to $39 mil. Between those schools, in order of revenue, are Wake Forest, Wazzu, Memphis, Utah, USF, Ole Miss, and SMU. Utah will jump up once they get a full share of PAC money, but that gives you an idea of the where schools stand.
The cleanest breaks are at #14 (Notre Dame at $97 mil) and #15 (Georgia at #91 mil), Duke at #32 (#78 mil) and Arizona at #33 ($75 mil), and #64 BYU ($53 mil) and #65 Wake Forest ($48 mil). Pretty much every other slot has schools within $1.5 mil of the schools directly above and below them.
Back to the original issue... if an super-conference were to form strictly by the numbers, it would be about 6 SEC schools, 4 B1G schools, and 2 Big 12 schools. A super-league of 24 would not be much more diverse. It would be 9 SEC, 7 B1G, 3 Big 12, 3 PAC, and 2 ACC (Notre Dame and Louisville). Schools like FSU, TAMU, Michigan State, UNC, Oregon, Arizona, WVU, Kansas, and UVA are still left out at 24 teams. Any decision to further split leagues will have to be done very diplomatically and be an "opt-out" situation, like paying players or making the "stipend" basically a pay-to-play. Interesting fodder for conversation, but unlikely in the near future.
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