(06-21-2013 09:43 AM)bullet Wrote: Probably 20-25 years when, as ArkStfan suggested here or in another thread, the media markets change enough. And that could produce major changes that are very hard to predict.
It could happen when the GORs expire in the 2020s under several possibilities, but that IMO is less likely. In order of likelihood:
1) Key ACC schools get tired of being #5 in media money and take better offers leaving half the ACC schools stuck in a mezzanine level conference-not quite mid-major, but not major;
2) Texas and OU decide the Big 12 doesn't work for them as well as they would like and head together to Big 10 or Pac 12;
3) Major schools form a 10-12 team superconference. I would be amazed if that has not been one of the topics of conversation between Dodds and Swarbick. USC, Texas, Notre Dame, at least one Florida school and several others would form a conference of powers that would play a limited 6-7 game conference schedule to give them flexibility and limit in conference losses and make mega-bucks. School presidents are conservative, so this is less likely than 1) and 2);
4) SEC implodes either due to recruiting frustrations or the difficulties of working with 14. 10-12 breakaway and start over. Possibly only 7-8 SEC schools if they add 2-3 schools from other conferences.
The Big 10 schools are similar and less likely to implode. Pac 12 is safe by geography. It would survive mostly intact even if option 3) occurs.
2016 is when connected TV sets (ie. capable of running at least some internet distributed content) are expected to be about half the market.
Between today and the end of the 2016 season the following rights come up:
Big 10 top tier (2016)
All rights for CUSA, MAC, MWC (2016)
Sun Belt second tier (2013).
The first will likely be a blockbuster because Fox doesn't have great top level content and ESPN has to win that battle or be shut out of the Big 10 picture. NBC might choose to get involved, they seem very careful picking their battles. CBS maybe but I suspect they aren't likely to throw much into this fight.
The next three might be interesting but I doubt we know enough of marketplace at that point for it to be a big deal. Primary question will be whether the players feel cash tight from the other deals.
Sun Belt second tier is no big deal.
2024 when the first of the long deals start expiring will be very interesting. Today's 23 year-old cord-cutter will be 34 years old. Will they have hooked the cord back up with young children in the house? Will someone have figured out how to effectively monetize the cord-cutters?
Status quo seems unlikely. The question is which is going to be the way to monetize? Ads delivered to apps on connected devices will probably be more valuable than today's TV ads. Advertisers will likely pay based on the true number of devices viewing. Demographic data on viewers is probably going to be available so at a minimum you might see Ford pay one amount for ads for Lincoln in certain zip codes, mid-level Ford cars in another group of zip codes, entry level cheap cars in other zip codes and trucks and SUVs in other areas. But you might also have other demographic info floating around and househoulds with a net income of X and above get ads for Audi, the next group down Chevy SUVs, and below that might get used car ads.
If that happens and it delivers good revenue, cheap or even free content may be available to consumers because it becomes like Facebook, the product isn't Facebook, the product being sold is the users, the service is merely the hook to gather as many potential eyeballs as possible and learn as much about them as possible.
You could literally have three or four people on the same block all being served different ads watching the same game on the same app.
But if the money isn't there and subscriptions are needed, then the question becomes do conferences go really big to the point they are quasi-associations within the NCAA to bundle as many schools as possible into a subscription package or does it become everyone for themselves with Alabama and Auburn selling competing subscription packages?