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How long until we have major conference realignment?
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #61
RE: How long until we have major conference realignment?
(06-21-2013 10:52 AM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  The SEC's geography and standards would make getting to 24 very easy if ACC and Big 12 schools became available. If I'm Larry Scott and Bob Bowlsby, I'd be sending each other Christmas cards for the next decade. If/when, the landscape changes, merging the PAC and the Big 12 may be the only way the PAC can compete with peers as close to home as possible and the only way the Big 12 schools can stay together if they so desire.

In an "everybody's got to have 20 or more schools" scenario, some combination of the Pac-12 and Big 12 makes sense. But: (a) That's not happening any time in the next few years, and (b) If it does happen, a complete merger is unlikely. Such mergers have sometimes been suggested in the past, and the history is that one league poaches the other rather than merging. See, e.g., Big 8-SWC, ACC-BE football schools.
06-21-2013 02:01 PM
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Post: #62
RE: How long until we have major conference realignment?
(06-21-2013 09:43 AM)bullet Wrote:  Probably 20-25 years when, as ArkStfan suggested here or in another thread, the media markets change enough. And that could produce major changes that are very hard to predict.

It could happen when the GORs expire in the 2020s under several possibilities, but that IMO is less likely. In order of likelihood:

1) Key ACC schools get tired of being #5 in media money and take better offers leaving half the ACC schools stuck in a mezzanine level conference-not quite mid-major, but not major;
2) Texas and OU decide the Big 12 doesn't work for them as well as they would like and head together to Big 10 or Pac 12;
3) Major schools form a 10-12 team superconference. I would be amazed if that has not been one of the topics of conversation between Dodds and Swarbick. USC, Texas, Notre Dame, at least one Florida school and several others would form a conference of powers that would play a limited 6-7 game conference schedule to give them flexibility and limit in conference losses and make mega-bucks. School presidents are conservative, so this is less likely than 1) and 2);
4) SEC implodes either due to recruiting frustrations or the difficulties of working with 14. 10-12 breakaway and start over. Possibly only 7-8 SEC schools if they add 2-3 schools from other conferences.

The Big 10 schools are similar and less likely to implode. Pac 12 is safe by geography. It would survive mostly intact even if option 3) occurs.

2016 is when connected TV sets (ie. capable of running at least some internet distributed content) are expected to be about half the market.

Between today and the end of the 2016 season the following rights come up:
Big 10 top tier (2016)
All rights for CUSA, MAC, MWC (2016)
Sun Belt second tier (2013).

The first will likely be a blockbuster because Fox doesn't have great top level content and ESPN has to win that battle or be shut out of the Big 10 picture. NBC might choose to get involved, they seem very careful picking their battles. CBS maybe but I suspect they aren't likely to throw much into this fight.

The next three might be interesting but I doubt we know enough of marketplace at that point for it to be a big deal. Primary question will be whether the players feel cash tight from the other deals.

Sun Belt second tier is no big deal.

2024 when the first of the long deals start expiring will be very interesting. Today's 23 year-old cord-cutter will be 34 years old. Will they have hooked the cord back up with young children in the house? Will someone have figured out how to effectively monetize the cord-cutters?

Status quo seems unlikely. The question is which is going to be the way to monetize? Ads delivered to apps on connected devices will probably be more valuable than today's TV ads. Advertisers will likely pay based on the true number of devices viewing. Demographic data on viewers is probably going to be available so at a minimum you might see Ford pay one amount for ads for Lincoln in certain zip codes, mid-level Ford cars in another group of zip codes, entry level cheap cars in other zip codes and trucks and SUVs in other areas. But you might also have other demographic info floating around and househoulds with a net income of X and above get ads for Audi, the next group down Chevy SUVs, and below that might get used car ads.

If that happens and it delivers good revenue, cheap or even free content may be available to consumers because it becomes like Facebook, the product isn't Facebook, the product being sold is the users, the service is merely the hook to gather as many potential eyeballs as possible and learn as much about them as possible.

You could literally have three or four people on the same block all being served different ads watching the same game on the same app.

But if the money isn't there and subscriptions are needed, then the question becomes do conferences go really big to the point they are quasi-associations within the NCAA to bundle as many schools as possible into a subscription package or does it become everyone for themselves with Alabama and Auburn selling competing subscription packages?
06-21-2013 02:03 PM
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Post: #63
RE: How long until we have major conference realignment?
(06-21-2013 02:01 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-21-2013 10:52 AM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  The SEC's geography and standards would make getting to 24 very easy if ACC and Big 12 schools became available. If I'm Larry Scott and Bob Bowlsby, I'd be sending each other Christmas cards for the next decade. If/when, the landscape changes, merging the PAC and the Big 12 may be the only way the PAC can compete with peers as close to home as possible and the only way the Big 12 schools can stay together if they so desire.

In an "everybody's got to have 20 or more schools" scenario, some combination of the Pac-12 and Big 12 makes sense. But: (a) That's not happening any time in the next few years, and (b) If it does happen, a complete merger is unlikely. Such mergers have sometimes been suggested in the past, and the history is that one league poaches the other rather than merging. See, e.g., Big 8-SWC, ACC-BE football schools.
A Big XII / Pac-12 merger would probably not look a lot different from what we have today. Most likely it would be something less than a merger. More along the lines of the two leagues consolidating their TV rights and agreeing to a number of games against the other group in the TV friendly sports while each remains independent conferences for NCAA purposes.
06-21-2013 02:06 PM
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bigblueblindness Offline
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Post: #64
RE: How long until we have major conference realignment?
I think you are correct about the ad-driven content, arkstfan. Of course, there will always be add-free options if you pay enough for it, but the technology is already available to get a pretty good idea of what consumers want without being too invasive. For example, Hulu and other services already ask you if that particular add relates to you. I will usually click Yes or No because it ends up leading me to commercials I enjoy (thanks Old Spice and beer). It is going to be funny, though, when we are watching this consumer driven marketing in action and someone has a bunch of mixed company over and half of their commercials are for racy or taboo subject matters!
06-21-2013 02:24 PM
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bigblueblindness Offline
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Post: #65
RE: How long until we have major conference realignment?
By the way, demographic advertising is why golf and tennis will always have a prime spot on network TV. Even with fewer overall viewers, the people watching are buying the high-end cars, financial services, watches, etc. at a clip high enough for those brands to shell out big bucks comparable to a more mass population scheme for football or basketball (Bud Light, Old Spice, Doritos, etc.) In the end, TV may be geared to where people that prove they are buying the things advertised (perhaps by purchasing via the link or code provided in the commercial) get free or discounted programming because they are more than paying for themselves. It would be pretty sweet to already know you wanted a new car but were able to get 2 years of free Golf Channel by purchasing off their commercial. I'm sure advertising companies would love that... buy a case of Bud Light and order two large Papa John's Pizzas and we'll give you the local game for free without commercials and with fan, player, coaching, and stadium live shots during commercial breaks instead of other commercials.
06-21-2013 02:35 PM
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Post: #66
RE: How long until we have major conference realignment?
(06-21-2013 12:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(06-21-2013 11:46 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(06-21-2013 09:43 AM)bullet Wrote:  Probably 20-25 years when, as ArkStfan suggested here or in another thread, the media markets change enough. And that could produce major changes that are very hard to predict.

It could happen when the GORs expire in the 2020s under several possibilities, but that IMO is less likely. In order of likelihood:

1) Key ACC schools get tired of being #5 in media money and take better offers leaving half the ACC schools stuck in a mezzanine level conference-not quite mid-major, but not major;
2) Texas and OU decide the Big 12 doesn't work for them as well as they would like and head together to Big 10 or Pac 12;
3) Major schools form a 10-12 team superconference. I would be amazed if that has not been one of the topics of conversation between Dodds and Swarbick. USC, Texas, Notre Dame, at least one Florida school and several others would form a conference of powers that would play a limited 6-7 game conference schedule to give them flexibility and limit in conference losses and make mega-bucks. School presidents are conservative, so this is less likely than 1) and 2);
4) SEC implodes either due to recruiting frustrations or the difficulties of working with 14. 10-12 breakaway and start over. Possibly only 7-8 SEC schools if they add 2-3 schools from other conferences.

The Big 10 schools are similar and less likely to implode. Pac 12 is safe by geography. It would survive mostly intact even if option 3) occurs.



ND had been part of the talks about forming an "Airplane Conference" back in the late 1950's.


"In 1959, Admiral Tom Hamilton, the incoming commissioner of the Pac-8 Conference, began drawing up plans for what he called the "Airplane Conference." The league of at least 13 schools would have included Notre Dame, the three service academies, the core of what is now the Pac-10 and stretched from coast-to-coast. The name fit: The new league would have flown over the poor(er) saps below. The Airplane Conference would have been the richest, most influential conference in the country.


'That's the first instance of the super conference idea,' said author Keith Dunnavant, who interviewed the now-deceased Hamilton for his 2004 book, The Fifty Year Seduction. 'It could have been a dramatic change. I think they came pretty close.'

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...e-the-same


http://www.thenewstribune.com/2010/06/14...round.html



It is pretty tough to come up with a national super conference like that, even suspending reality and dissolving some conferences to make the new one.


How about a West Coast/Southwest/Southeast/Northeast pod structure for such a conference? It is tough to imagine.

West Coast:

Southern Cal
Stanford
Oregon
Arizona State

Southwest:

Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Oklahoma State

Southeast:

Florida State
Miami
North Carolina
Duke


Northeast: (toughest to do)

ND
Penn State
Syracuse
Pitt


I tried to combine football schools and basketball schools for year around television appeal.

I hope that Wilkie would be proud.05-stirthepot

No SEC teams, a wise move. But, I would have thought that Notre Dame would have considered an "Airplane" conference anathema after losing Rockne on one.

It almost looks like my conference over on our draft on the SEC board huh JR?

http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=633270&page=25
06-21-2013 04:19 PM
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