(06-18-2013 03:22 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  

(06-18-2013 12:04 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  If UT, OU and a couple of others leave for greener ($$$) pastures, then I agree the rump of the Big <12 would effectively merge with all or most of the American. Probably BYU would be involved in that, too.

I agree with what you're saying, but if the BIG12 remnants and teams from AAC + BYU did join up, the result would get relegated to mid-major status, just as the BE did when they brought in the latest wave of CUSA schools. You could probably argue their status' are better overall, but I don't think the P5 would care all that much.

Well first of all I think this is a moot point because (repeating here) I think the B<12 will survive basically (or completely) intact. Somewhere down the line I think they will revisit the expansion issue, as well.

But just for the sake of argument let's say the league did lose UT and OU and a lower-caste rump of Baylor/ISU/KSU and maybe 2-3 others had to find a new home. The status of that "new home" would clearly be less than the current Big<12. How much less? I think that would simply depend on exactly who was in the league and exactly what the members of that league had done on the field and on the court for the 3 or 4 years leading up to that point in time. No real way to handicap that scenario without the missing data. But I will offer one prediction: since the formation of BCS (circa 1996/97), there has never been less than 63 teams on the inside of the castle. When the Louisville/Rutgers shifts take place next year, there will be 65. I would be very surprised if you ever see a scenario whereby the # drops below 62 or 63. I just don't think the process of consolidation and exclusion can reach that level anytime soon. FWIW.

(06-18-2013 10:27 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(06-18-2013 03:22 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  

(06-18-2013 12:04 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  If UT, OU and a couple of others leave for greener ($$$) pastures, then I agree the rump of the Big <12 would effectively merge with all or most of the American. Probably BYU would be involved in that, too.

I agree with what you're saying, but if the BIG12 remnants and teams from AAC + BYU did join up, the result would get relegated to mid-major status, just as the BE did when they brought in the latest wave of CUSA schools. You could probably argue their status' are better overall, but I don't think the P5 would care all that much.

Well first of all I think this is a moot point because (repeating here) I think the B<12 will survive basically (or completely) intact. Somewhere down the line I think they will revisit the expansion issue, as well.

But just for the sake of argument let's say the league did lose UT and OU and a lower-caste rump of Baylor/ISU/KSU and maybe 2-3 others had to find a new home. The status of that "new home" would clearly be less than the current Big<12. How much less? I think that would simply depend on exactly who was in the league and exactly what the members of that league had done on the field and on the court for the 3 or 4 years leading up to that point in time. No real way to handicap that scenario without the missing data. But I will offer one prediction: since the formation of BCS (circa 1996/97), there has never been less than 63 teams on the inside of the castle. When the Louisville/Rutgers shifts take place next year, there will be 65. I would be very surprised if you ever see a scenario whereby the # drops below 62 or 63. I just don't think the process of consolidation and exclusion can reach that level anytime soon. FWIW.

Good points.